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How low will common bullion coins get?

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Pillar of the Community
United States
2973 Posts
 Posted 11/14/2013  4:49 pm Show Profile Check barryg's eBay Listings Bookmark this topic Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Message

I got back into coin collecting around the same time silver and gold prices were taking off and really never paid attention to what prices were like before that. I've been looking to get some "common" historic silver and gold coins (Morgan Silver Dollars, St. Gauden $20 Gold Pieces, etc.) with good eye appeal and am just wondering whether the prices are likely to fall any further.

Silver and gold prices have fallen dramatically from their height a couple of years ago, and the premiums on these coins have certainly come down a bit, but not that much (especially over the last few months). At first, I chalked it up to sellers not wanting to lose out on their investments or to simple greed, but now I'm starting to wonder whether a common date Morgan dollar in BU condition, for example, will always carry a numismatic value of $45+ regardless of how low silver prices fall or how long they stay there. Same thing with the St. Gauden -- will it always sell for above $1600 in AU/BU condition?

What do people think? Does anybody remember what things were selling for when silver hit $20 and gold hit $1300 on the way up? If gold and silver prices stay this low for a few more months, are premiums likely to ever get any lower?

Thanks for any input you may have.

Pillar of the Community
Australia
8739 Posts
 Posted 11/14/2013  6:53 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have always regarded premiums above melt value as a separate value component for either a bullion or numismatic piece.
Both can change up or down. You just need to keep track of market trends.

For the melt value component that is easier to, do because price history charts for bullion metals are easy to find.
Nevertheless it is possible to derive a theoretical current value for a coin, from market trends for both value components, but some research on values has to be done.

I will not predict values into the future, but your own judgment has to come into play to decide if time to buy or sell is right for you.
Edited by sel_69l
11/14/2013 7:01 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1200 Posts
 Posted 11/14/2013  7:41 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Fat Freddy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Barry--Like you and everybody else, I wish I knew. My guess is that premiums will likely keep the prices of AU/BU Morgans, St. Gaudens and other such coins
more stable and resistant to the sometimes extreme low-end roller-coastering of spot. A couple of the most insightful and affluent PM stackers I know have
large portions of their stacks made up of those coins, and I don't think that's just because they like the designs.
Caveat emptor!
Pillar of the Community
United States
2973 Posts
 Posted 11/14/2013  8:40 pm  Show Profile Check barryg's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for the responses. I guess I'm just wondering if anybody remembers what the premium was on coins like this back when silver first hitting $20/ounce and gold was first hitting $1300. If BU Morgans were $45 back then as well, fine. But if they were only $30, then I'm willing to hold off and see if the prices eventually drop again.
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Canada
3187 Posts
 Posted 11/14/2013  9:50 pm  Show Profile Check Libertad's eCrater Listings Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There will always be a small premium above spot price for coins because they simply are not made anymore. But the prices for silver dollars in my area were steadily above spot price before the run-up, then they went up for the longest time and now I'm seeing cheaper silver out there compared to even 6-12 months ago. I think that as the spot price drops, the premiums will slowly drop in time but not on a daily basis. When it starts rising is the premiums stay the same until it breaks the spot price and gets revalued. That's how I see it. Your neighbourhood will be different.
Selling paper money: http://gtacoins.ecrater.com
Want to Buy or Trade: Nuevos Pesos Méxicanos (UNC): P95, P96, P97, P98, P99, P105a and P105b.
Nickel, not Nickle :)
Pillar of the Community
United States
2973 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  5:24 pm  Show Profile Check barryg's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Your neighbourhood will be different.


True. Sadly, the one local coin dealer I know of bases his prices entirely on what APMEX charges, so there's no way to get any bargains from him.

Guess I'll just have to keep waiting...
Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
1056 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  5:36 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add NumisRob to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't know about how this would affect US coins, but every time the silver price goes up, more and more demonetised common-date pre-1947 British silver coins get melted. So a relatively common coin, like a 1936 florin in Fine, is much scarcer now than it was 30 years ago.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1426 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  7:23 pm  Show Profile Check traevin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You weren't actively collecting back in Mar. 2008 when silver first crested $20 before falling below $10 by the end of the year? For some reason I thought you were already here when I signed up. Anyway, that's when I got back into collecting (I'd collected blue books of pennies, nickels, and dimes as a kid back in the late 1970's but later lost interest until well after my military and college years). Although I wasn't actively collecting Morgans, I do recall watching them come up for sale while I was doing generic silver searches on eBay. Most of the time, common date Morgans would sell anywhere between $18-24 at a time when I was consistently finding ASEs in the $14-18 range. That's actually the reason I didn't buy the Morgans back then. I preferred owning a full ounce of silver vs. the roughly 27 grams of AG found in a Morgan, which was selling for 10-15% more on avg. But it seems to me that the relatively recent silver run-up to almost $50 in 2011 left an indelible mark on the memories of both buyers and sellers, alike. When prices sank below $19 this summer, ASEs were still selling for $27 and up on eBay; therefore, I don't know how low (or for how long), prices would need to fall (and then settle there), before hitting a tabula rasa- type reset of people's expectations of silver's worth.
If you haven't noticed by now, I don't proofread veery well and I apollogize profusely. (;>D
Pillar of the Community
United States
8998 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  7:32 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The real question is going to be what happened to the Morgans during the run up. How many were melted, how many have ended up in stacks from people who got worried about falling silver prices and wanted some cushion ect. Depending on how many have been hoarded or destroyed they could be less significantly less available than before. I doubt theyll be at the point of being rare but enough may have been destroyed or removed from the market to keep them sitting closer to 30 than 20 no matter where silver goes.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2973 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  8:42 pm  Show Profile Check barryg's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
You weren't actively collecting back in Mar. 2008 when silver first crested $20 before falling below $10 by the end of the year?


Nope, I was not. I joined this forum back in August of 2011 and only got back into collecting a few months earlier.
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Learn More...
United States
2598 Posts
 Posted 11/15/2013  9:14 pm  Show Profile Check macmercury's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Least to say is to do with demand, when enough collectors want it, prices move upward, there are periods that this hobby make other spectators and the normal folks peek interested, programs like the State Quarters (Thanks to the US Mint). And for a while now prices was high, but when enough of these spectators decided to turn their collections in for profit, they notice that the market isn't really in much of a demand for them and are discourage to have it in their possession, prices goes downward even for the silver State Quarters, and the common collectible bullion coins, this in turn also effect other precious metal in some degree.

Sort of a butterfly effect! I think this is a better period for true collectors to pick up sleeper keys and semi keys along the way while PM prices continue to drop.
Sorry! Don't want to go into the Paper Metal, enough is discussed in other PM daily posts.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
3187 Posts
 Posted 11/21/2013  10:54 pm  Show Profile Check Libertad's eCrater Listings Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You have to remember, though, that there's this weird thought process by the people who buy PMs. Saying "melt" doesn't mean spot price. Melting is literally melting. Buying it for "melt" is not the same as melting it. Most buyers are just hoarding it but they don't melt it; that's really silly. So I never use that word lightly.

@barryg: At least he doesn't charge you shipping.
Selling paper money: http://gtacoins.ecrater.com
Want to Buy or Trade: Nuevos Pesos Méxicanos (UNC): P95, P96, P97, P98, P99, P105a and P105b.
Nickel, not Nickle :)
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