I remember the first Gulf War that we won in a month. During the run up to the war the stock market took a big hit. As soon as the war got underway it started up at a fast clip. I bet PM's reacted to this as well. So if Tweeter in Chief gets us into trouble with his tweets I can see some kind of big reaction on all PM's and a lot of other things as well. Sometimes these things can be big buying or selling opportunities if you are a trader or a long term invester.
Best thing I did was sell my silver and purchase plants.
The Staghorns (not Elkhorns) have gone from $10 to $65 in under 12 months because of purchase price and growth and it goes on......
Have mentioned the word silver, price and growth!
But seriously this change from silver has come from closely following this thread. This thread effects many people in many different ways. Has really made me think about my investments to the max! Thanks yup!
According the Warren Buffett since 1986 gold went up 200% in value while the stock market went up 900%. He says gold has no intrinsic value except for jewelry and some industrial use. This is a quote from Money Magazine if you believe them or not. Joe Heider who is a founder of Cirrus Wealth Management says over the long term gold is no match for well diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds. Gold produces no income and has no place in a modern portfolio. That is an opinion but I still like gold coins.
@YUP..question for you..how do you feel about PVG? Let's just say for example gold has a decent year, and finds a way to be around $1,325 or so..I have read PVG owns the about to process BOOTJACK deposit in Canada, which is one of the highest grade reserve in this hemisphere. I suppose for a LONG buy, NOT for scalping, it should be a good buy, wanted your opinion, I will continue my research, and post any findings. My other question is how can we dig deep into trades, and is it possible to find out who does the buying...I just read an article on Nasdaq about how the recent surge in stocks was/is from "Retail" money, vs. "Institutional" buyers. The author states this is not a good sign for the market, as Institutional flows are dwindling down now, they have made their moves, and have their stops in
I'm 99% sure 1 of the reasons for the gold and silver surges LAST year was the massive institutional buys..BIG money flows IN. I'm 50% sure there is NOT much institutional buying in the specific bullion markets now, 70% sure they may be involved in other commodities like lumber, sugar, coffee, meats, copper?, etc, where better gains have been had. So, do you, or anyone else know of a site that tells us who does the buying? I do know where to go for Insider buys. Was just wondering if any way to see specifics on individual stock buys/sells, and who is behind them, or, is that not made public? The other day, somebody bought 270,000 shares of NEM after hours. I saw that, and, have to admit, it made me buy a few more. As a bullion investor of both physical and the miners, yes, I want the market to go into crash/correcton mode..it drags the miners down for a few days, but, eventually they take off, as the sector map glows green, and, there's nowhere else to go. Look at Jan. 2016 charts, and you see this perfectly. By Feb, it was ON, until the late March 9% bullion correction, which only lasted a week, and, then June Brexit top/august top.
Quote: Gold produces no income and has no place in a modern portfolio
I agree that owning physical Gold or Silver produces No dividends other than the profit realised by the increase in the spot price when sold But if you compare Gold and Silver to US Treasury Bonds that have a minus 1.32% yield they are a far better option of storing wealth at the moment. As for the stock market, Yes huge gains can be made owning/selling stocks But huge losses can also occur. As for just leaving money in the Bank then there is always the threat of negative interest rates which is Not an impossible probability.
For the average "Joe" that simply wants to squirrel away some money for his/her retirement PM's are by far the Safer and simpler option.
Price action in gold and silver remain constructive. Last we discussed gold getting over 1227 a few weeks ago and silver over 17.15, which both those price levels were broken and continued to run before settling into a new range. let look at what we are working with.
When we last looked together, we had 1227 as the area that was needed to be broken higher and it happened and gold traveled up to 1246.60 on 2/8. What we have seen from then was a move lower from that 1246 high, down to 1217 mid week and closed yesterday higher.
Take a look at the chart and you can see once again gold has a new range. Nothing really new here and by know you should be familiar with how ranges or bases are formed, remember they are present in ALL asset classes, whether they bonds, currencies, equities or commodities. This sort of price action is what you want to see if you are looking for higher prices. Right now gold is doing all the right things, using time to digest it gains, instead of dropping very hard in price.
The range on the upper end is 1246.20 and we are working with 1220 on the lower end for now in gold. Keep your eyes on these two numbers in price to see which gets broken next week. As always, a break of 1246.20 gets us higher prices and you guessed, falling below 1220 will stall this current move up. Very simple folks, follow price.
I know it sounds sexy and exciting when people foolishly declare 1,000 gold or 2,000 gold but unless you have a crystal ball, making price predictions is stupid. Dont be like those people you see making price predictions. As an example, how do you think all the people calling for 1,000 dollar gold and less feel right now? LOL
Going forward, after two weeks since I last updated here, I do like the price chart as the price action continues to look better and better. Many technicians, which I am NOT, will always say about a chart like gold right now and say "nothing to the left". Why? Compare the last chart I put up. Remember 1338? If you dont, go read the last post I did.
Now look at this months chart I put up, if we look left, on a shorter time frame, there is no higher range, which is usually shown as a higher range/price on the left side of the chart. All we have in gold is just the high end of the range of 1246.60. So this number will be key and it will be interesting to see what happens next week, whether we get a blast of buying that pushes higher or where resistance kicks in and slows down or stalls the past few weeks of forward motion in price, which results in gold testing again the lower end of its current range. As it was, Friday the close for gold was pretty weak, so you must observe and see if the sellers can build on that with follow through next week.
Silver is also acting right if you want higher prices. Blasted past the old range from last week and manged to touch 18 last week. Pretty straight forward here on the new range: 17.70s on the low end of the range and the high end stands at 18.14, which over 18.14 should bring higher prices. Once again, look left on this new chart. There is nothing there. Again, just as with gold, with the change in chart structure, will this improvement bring in additional buyers or is this where we will face resistance and prices stall? Again, we do not know nor should we really concerned in making predictions. Just go along with the flow of price action and the element of time.
So remember, a break higher of those ranges next week should bring us higher prices plus because of the improved price structure over several weeks, it could certainly bring in more buyers. A SIMPLE concept lost upon the general public and indeed some of you here is the concept of time frames. The market place is full of buyers and sellers depending on price and time frames. The more constructive the price action, the more buyers step in and vice a versa.
As an example- these past few ranges have been very profitable for say swing traders, who are playing the range, selling the high end and buying the low end on gold and silver.
For me, it means nothing as a trader. I am looking at the overall LONGER TERM time frame. I put money to work on either 52 highs/52 lows (selling short or buying yearly highs) or longer term range breaks. Where we stand now, I would be a buyer of gold and silver, FOR A TRADE, over the high end of these ranges AND yes, I would be using a STOP in case prices stall out and the trade does not work out, which can happen.
more miners have reported last week. First, we saw, after PAAS has a great few weeks in front of earnings, it tanked hard on a stinker ER. Like CDE, stay away from PAAS for now. On the other hand, we had ABX who reported well and the ER reaction was beautiful check out its chart, it looks great.
Trading, investing in mining stocks is tough and there are plenty of places to put money to work right now. Speaking from experience, I really dont care to put money to work in miners until we have a clear, smooth strong uptrend as we did in the past.
My suggestion to you is IF you want to buy gold or silver miners, stick to ONLY those who have a good ER and are above say 10 dollars. You can tell this simply by how the stock reacts when they report. Wait until AFTER the ER to put some money to work and do NOT put all your money into a miner. Unless you are ready to deal with wild swings, stay away.
Let us wrap things up-
Gold and silver continue to march higher, price action remains constructive as of this writing. Clearly, the gold price predictors of 1,000 or less look very foolish, the "dead cat bounce" people have been sent to the clown car, the naysayers of the uptrend have been silenced and are probably confused why there is an uptrend LOL and the scoffers of price action, such as the dictum that one is wise to buy the start of 52 week highs, also known as fresh yearly highs, have had to eat their words and wash it down with rain water, all those who dare contradict the truism of price action ALWAYS lose. Dont be a looser like them.
Put your full faith in price, which never ever lies and will not send you down the wrong path.
THANKS Yup...always so cool that you take the time and effort to place your work in here, there are a lot of us who REALLY appreciate all of your hard work! I see GOLD to $2,100 next week...JUST KIDDING.........this year is a lot different than last year, at least to me. Seems like 1 leg up, then, 2 down, then 3 up...a tortious creep up in the range, man, do I miss the old days of $1,275, $1,305...I swear, JUST when you think there is a BIG upside, next day for whatever reason, down. My hunch is the BIG money just isn't here yet, their all out in "regular" stocks. So, in my selfish world, yes, I want a major stock market correction asap, and, a huge flee into the miners. THIS time, I know about taking profits, and hope to do so someday, and leave the "house money" shares in long.
If you put your retirement money in PM's you won't be able to retire, ever. If you start putting equal amounts into stocks and PM's at age 25 see where you are at by age 65 with both. If you buy stocks and reinvest dividends for 40 years you will probably increase you money by very significant amount. You have to be educated about it just like you have to be educated about buying coins or PM's. Only 50% of people since crash in 2009 have money in stocks. They have missed the greatest bull market in history. Now is probably the time to start taking profits or you can wait until 80% own stocks and then bail out if you have the guts to wait that long for the music to stop. Think of the poor fools who were buying million dollar homes on margin in 2006 and got wiped out by 2009. Corporations like BlackRock came into my neighborhood and bought up all the foreclosed houses for a song and now rent them out or have sold them for a fortune. Americans know more about atomic power than they do about their own finances. It is not rocket science to just spend less than you make and invest the rest in something be it gold, stocks or real estate except don't buy on margin if you can afford a margin call.
glad to be of help, I really have nothing to gain from taking the time to share my knowledge and years of experience. It would be very easy for me to laugh and snicker in the background at everyone and not say a peep but I figured I would contribute, after all, isn't what this site is about, sharing knowledge, that education is the key to success? Success is what I want others to have in markets, if they can grasp simple concepts with an open mind and understand what is being said.
I have nothing to gain from here, could care less for the following or adulation of people, I am not here to sell anything and honest to god, can care less of others opinions when it comes to trading and markets. I make my money, have made my money, manage my risk, have made my share of big mistakes, have been taught by others and I stand by what I say because I know what works and am fully cognizant of market conditions to keep finding the trends and patterns.
My hope is that those who want to learn and keep an open mind can eventually realize that price is the answer to winning at the markets and that with price you can protect yourself from the bad times and profit from the good times.
Ill answer your question either later on tonight or tomorrow. I have to check and ask around if there is as service that sells compiled data, I know there are a few but I dont use them but I do know how to get that data you ask about, I have mentioned it here before
The market money isn't really flowing to gold and silver right now as it is to other areas, such as the US equity market as an example. Right now I am running a full book and have both a problem of running out of cash to deploy AND too many market moving ideas to put money to work, there is a lot of stuff moving up.
That said, gold and silver are not dead, they are slowing creeping, at a turtles pace. But again, the market decides all these things, perhaps they take off and the momentum grows at some point. I think really, again, TIME is key here, a time and place for silver and gold to really take off.
I can tell you, as an example, while silver and gold mining stocks are OK, they are NOT market leadership right now and no where close for now to being that.
Actually this slow pace is probably a LOT healtheir than the frantic ups forced by the speculators, which always lead to flash crash downs, and rapid profit-taking, ughhhh ..the money in now is real investors, for real, long term buys, not robots trading 700, 000,000 shares of ABX back and fro in 48 hours..it won't be long before the big swaperoo, you know the drill...algo-panic DJIA selling, and, headlines of gold "up another 12% for the week..."...a slow crawl to $2,400 would be real sweet, THEN the final explosion(I have never been involved in this so-called "parabolic" upswing--THIS is something I really want to see, and, of course, still have all my mining shares in), IF I live long enough to witness this, that would be pretty neat..I was not into this in 2011, that last high high...a smidge below $2,000/Oz....as "they" say now..., were just 2 TWEETS away from $2,900/Oz"!
Most of those larger companies, IMHO, are too expensive now, to really make a big profit(the profits were made last year, and, there's not too much more UP to be had, unless silver just goes crazy over 50/Oz, which is unlikely, until much, much later......the $3.75 and $4.50 days are done, we had our chances in Dec2015-Jan2016, for some giveaway prices...it will be hard to find the 20, 30, 40 baggers now...I own a few "hopefuls", but, I'm basically buy and forget them(Silverbull, USA Siler, Excellon, Kootenay, Alexandria), and, hope one of them has a "Silvercrest" moment up 2,300% last season, from 0.11 to 3.12). And, I believe PAAS just had a nasty response to it's earnings report, unlike ABX, but, that's silver vs. gold, and not fair to digress. I have to admit, I did a Trump Tweet purchase awhile ago of URRE, uranium..just PURE luck, within a week, made over 1k, and dumped it right before it crashed...wish EVERY trade was like that!
PVG- just randomly looking at the chart, looks constructive, near 52 highs, looks like it hit yearly highs a few weeks back. The initial break out at yearly highs wasnt too sexy after it being 6 months ago.
not the kind of stock I would put money to work, as it is sloppy, spends a lot of time back and forth. It is an uptrend for now, its up YTD. If you are looking for a gold miner, I really would stick to the known names, we have talked about a few here, RGLD, GOLD, ABX as some stand out names of this writing.
Did you check and see when this company reports or did it report already? Personally, I dont care for these smaller priced miners as I have said before. Thats not too say these stocks cant go higher but these stocks in the teens are there for a good reason.
My suggestion to you would be to wait until their ER, try and find out when that it is. Then see what happens when they report. If the stock rises, perhaps buy a yearly high, and as I have said many many many times, dont bet the farm but send in a line, put some sort of stop, an exit and just wait and see how it reacts, either it works or it doesn't, simple.
on your other question-
Are funds buying and who does the buying. This is simple- the markets can only rise with institutional money, period, and indices are at all time highs because funds ARE buying. There is not enough retail money in the world to move markets.
I didnt read the article but from what you are telling me, it sounds like whoever wrote that article must have missed the entire move late last year and into the new year now.
So how do we know its funds that are buying, the institutionals? Take a look at how strong the 52 high list is, how strong the advancing stocks over declining stocks day after day. There is market leadership, the market has leaders because funds are putting money to work. When the market has leadership, the move is real.
So where can you see whos buying? Well, the best source and where everyone pulls their data from is the same exact source and this is something I wrote about already: the SEC
By law, every quarter, every single fund, whether a hedge fund, mutual fund, bank, custodial bank, etc. anyone who has over 100 million in the us equity market must disclose all their holdings, every quarter, in what is known as a Form 13F.
So if you want to know who's got what, you go to SEC.gov, go to their EDGAR filing system, in the search engine type 13F-HR and it will pull up the most recent fund filings of their holdings, as to how many shares of everything.
So everyone is familiar with Mittens, AKA Mitt Romney right? He ran for politics a few times and was a founder of Bain Capital. Well, they put money to work in the market. You want to know where they have their money? Here is a look at their amended but current 13F-HR:
As I mentioned, all funds must do this, so you could search into say what JPM holds, GS, etc.
The one caveat tho is this- all this data is 4 months OLD when it gets released and there is a good chance by the time it is filed, they have either closed out these positions or made them smaller.
There is NO real-time way to know whos buying what and how much that is available to the public nor to traders. No one wants to disclose that for obvious reasons.
So this is why again, PRICE ACTION does not lie and is the most accurate way of knowing where money is going in real time. I will repeat myself- you know in real time where money is flowing by what assets are starting to hit yearly highs. You can find what assets, what stocks are hitting yearly highs and what areas of the market are currently the strongest and in demand by funds by following the 52 highs every single day of your life.
From there you can filter things down to other price metrics, volume, to find sectors where there might be signs of accumulation but where it hasnt quite taken off. I personally dont waste my time with that since it does not fit my trading strategy, I am a trend follower, more interested in whats hitting 52 highs and staying there.
Understand too that there is no holy grail as to how to just follow someone in the markets. Many of these funds put money into areas just because they need to, for either reasons of having to show their investors they have coverage in a certain sector, sometimes hedge funds, which often get things wrong, take positions in companies that then implode in their lap, etc.
There are a few services that offer to take this SEC data and distill it and find out where shares are being accumulated, being sold etc. But again remember, all this data is 4 months old by the time its released to the SEC and you wont be getting no where near their prices. Also, keep in mind, even per the SEC, they do state that these filings, in regards to the reader, they should not assume the information is accurate and complete.