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Have Collectible Coins Peaked In Value?

 
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 Posted 05/14/2022  9:03 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Pmint1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
With high inflation, high fuel prices and rising food costs and falling metals and stock market levels will we see collectables begin to drop in value as people have less money to spend on hobbies? My guess is we have peaked and values will start to decline.
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 Posted 05/14/2022  9:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
C'mon. Have the Old Masters peaked in value? Andy Warhol's? Turner's landscapes? Winslow Homer's visions?

Objects of beauty and rarity will always appreciate in value.
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 Posted 05/14/2022  9:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you are asking about the rise in prices that started after Covid 19, yes there are signs that the prices have started to stabilize if not peaked or passed the peak. For example the stabilization of the spot prices for gold and silver, but is this a temporary dip or a long term trend, I doubt any one can accurately predict. I personally think that some coin prices may drop a little (like modern, bullion and common date coins) others may drop a lot (like the Peace and Morgan's) as we don't have the hype in 2022 that we had in 2021 but with the restart of the series in 2023 with the release of proof version they may jump again. So the answer to your question is Yes, No and Maybe.

If you asking long term like decades into the future, the prices for the average coin will rise. The prices for coins that have precious metals will tend to keep up with long term inflation.
Edited by hfjacinto
05/14/2022 9:49 pm
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 Posted 05/14/2022  10:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Pmint1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What got me wondering in part is the last coin I need to complete my Morgan's is a 93-S. I plan to buy one soon no matter what prices do but I can't help but wonder what values will do in the next several months. Morgan's have really gone up in the last two years. The economy seems to be softening rapidly so I assume coins will likely follow. That said I collect for fun and not investment. I will buy no matter what values do.
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 Posted 05/14/2022  10:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Peace and Morgan's are tricky. Considering what I paid for my Peace set, the prices now seem way out of whack and since it's doubtful that it was collectors (but flippers) that caused the price increase, can that price increase last? My personal opinion is that the value should drop.. but that's my opinion, I myself paid way too much for a slabbed 1921 Peace so I didn't even take my own advice.
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 Posted 05/14/2022  10:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don;t think I have ever seen data showing a decline in the value of collectible coins (I am not talking about bullion coins).

Yes, they go up and level out with no increase for a while. But decline?
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 Posted 05/14/2022  11:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes prices have declined, my local coin shop will tell the story of how prices dropped at least 20% in 2009-2010 and stayed near 2010 prices for almost 10 years.
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 Posted 05/15/2022  02:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So long as inflation of World currencies continues to be high, nominal dollar prices of anything will continue to rise.
That includes collector coins.
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 Posted 05/15/2022  09:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The way I see it is coin prices will either go up or down.
just carl
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 Posted 05/15/2022  10:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add panzaldi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
What got me wondering in part is the last coin I need to complete my Morgan's is a 93-S. I plan to buy one soon no matter what prices do but I can't help but wonder what values will do in the next several months.


this is just my opinion

i cant see the rarer coins like the 93S to do nothing but increase over time. if I was buying in this market I would stick to key coins in the best grade I could afford.

keep in mind that in an inflationary periods people tend to buy more rare objects to protect their investments like real estate and collectables. with a recession in the offing that even adds to their appeal.

i would keep a close eye on the prices of the 93S over the next couple months. if they decrease (which I doubt) then time to buy. if they increase then they will fair well in the upcoming years. if they remain the same then I would hold on the buy until you see which way they are going to move. I dont think you will see a big jump either way if they move so it wont hurt you to watch them for a while but right now its a tossup which direction it will go
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 Posted 05/15/2022  8:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yes, prices of collectibles such as coins can go down substantially, For instance - not to hurt jbuck feelings, but - the 1972 Type II Ike did drop 70% from 2006 to 2020 (but recently seems to have found its footing).

https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=97409-64
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 Posted 05/16/2022  03:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add gxseries to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There will be some price correction. It depends on the global economy. If people have surplus money to spend, prices go up. When times get tight, prices drop but that rarely applies to scarcer to rarer coins.

I've seen some tough to find coins appearing in the market in the last couple of years. If you have the money, now may be the time to buy. If you have some duplicate coins, now might be the right time to sell as well.
My partial coin collection http://www.omnicoin.com/collection/gxseries

My numismatics articles and collection: http://www.gxseries.com/numis/numis_index.htm Regularly updated at least once a month.
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 Posted 05/22/2022  12:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add captaincoffee to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I don;t think I have ever seen data showing a decline in the value of collectible coins

If you are not familiar with the PCGS3000 Index you may want to check it out: https://www.PCGS.com/prices/coin-index/PCGS3000
It references the overall collectible coin market. @NumisEd's link can get you info on specific coins and their price history.
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 Posted 05/22/2022  12:50 pm  Show Profile   Check Collects82's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Collects82 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I was thinking a similar thought this AM. I am speaking anecdotally based on my eBay watchlist which I was browsing at the time. The list is full of stuff from my saved searches for my '82s as well as buffalos, some early large and Half Cents, Bust dimes and half dimes. My thought with recently ended stuff is the fuel doesn't seem quite as powerful as a couple months ago with a few more listings in there ending at prices where I said to myself "not bad". I also feel like there is some slowing in turnover, meaning some buy-it now stuff that relists evey 30 days I think is coming around more than it had, or sellers are taking longer to find someone at their listed price. I've won a couple Great Collection buffalos recently at prices I thought were very fair even after buyer premium and shipping, but these weren't coins the higher end folk were eyeing either and maybe I got lucky they were distracted by the "better stuff". I was browsing for a 1796 large cents in F2-AG3 and it seems like there were a handful more specimens available right now, and the asks weren't as juiced as earlier this year (not that they were a deal, per se). Just my anecdotal gut feels here, certainly not SwamperBob levels of deep and precise science happening.

Specific to a 93-S, I don't think you will hurt yourself financially waiting for the right coin to come along that speaks to your soul. I'm not sure prices will come down much, but I'm not sure there is much painful upward movement coming either, at least I hope not.

If dealers are in fact starting to see inventory slows, that might be enough cause where some patience and asking around for a while might get you want you want. With the rise in price and demand, surely some dealers have paid a bit of a premium for their stuff and the last thing they want in a premium inventory is a slow down. Becomes an awkward game of hot potato in their balance sheets soon enough.
My hoard of '82s is up to 241! 218 BC x 1, 118 BC x 3, 18 BC x 1, 82 x 1, 182 x 1, 282 x 2, 382 x 1, 582 x 2, 682 x 1, 782 x 2, 882 x 1, 982 x 4, 1082 x 1 1182 x 8, 1282 x 2, 1382 x 1, 1482 x 6, 1582 x 13, 1682 x 17, 1782 x 60, 1882 x 68, 1982 x 45
Edited by Collects82
05/22/2022 1:18 pm
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 Posted 05/22/2022  1:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I find market for key dates coin are still in demand and economic prices reflecting it, it is the prices of the lesser popular series that drops due to lack of collectors interest even if its key dates.

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 Posted 05/22/2022  8:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anecdotal evidence to the contrary perhaps, but someone just bought my Barber half dollar for top dollar. I even make a small profit on it.
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