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I Don't Win Auctions Anymore. How Should I Adjust My Bidding?

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 Posted 01/16/2021  2:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JasonKflo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have been winning to many bids lately haha
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 Posted 01/16/2021  3:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add llewellin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I only bid on coins that already have lots of bids, the auction is the most accurate determinant of true market value
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 Posted 01/18/2021  1:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Andrew99 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think many auctions are now going for full retail these days, a combination of more collector involvement, the shut down of shows, stimulus money, who knows?
The collection is in your mind. Dispose of your albums and free your mind from the tyranny of holes.
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 Posted 01/18/2021  1:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think many auctions are now going for full retail these days, a combination of more collector involvement, the shut down of shows, stimulus money, who knows?


I fully agree. I'm a collector, and have been buying mainly from auctions for about a decade. In the early years, I sensed that I was bidding mainly against dealers, as they had to leave room for profits (but not me). Bargains were aplenty in those days. Now, occasionally I get bargains, but mostly the coins where I'm the high bidder are at "fair" prices, and occasionally I have to stretch with a strong max bid to get a coin that is really special.
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/18/2021  3:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Joe2007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I follow a number of antiques and collectibles categories and many of them are seeing steadily increasing prices and demand since the start of the pandemic. I am being outbid almost all the time for quality items and I am shocked by how much prices seem to be going up. Housing prices are also crazy right now and I think we are in a hyperinflationary period that is being hidden from the general public so not to cause panic. All of the monopoly money that is being printed and distributed by the government and the current policies of the FED are are cause I believe.
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 Posted 01/25/2021  01:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add newguy22 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@NumisED I'm agreeing with what you're saying. I think alot of the rising prices has to do with the free covid money. Suddenly, a lot of people who normally could not afford their "dream" coin suddenly have the funds to make the purchase. I'm sure once normalcy returns in the coming months, prices will correct and sooner or later, OP will be winning those auctions again ;)
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 Posted 01/26/2021  10:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Tonight I participated in a Heritage Auction and actually did win two coins. Contrary to what I mentioned before, I slightly changed my approach.
First of all, I made a list of all coins I was interested in and looked up past auction and Greysheet/NumisMedia prices for each coin. I also included a few coins I did not want to bid on ("dummy coins") but which were of similar quality AND were of an earlier lot number (very important!). I wrote the price of each coin down on a spreadsheet. Secondly, a couple of days before the auction I placed "place holder bids" well below Greysheet, knowing all too well I probably wouldn't win at these prices.
Just before the auction itself, I looked over the Proxy Bid tab sheet on Heritage but didn't really see the use of it. Then, when the "live" auction started, I followed every coin on my list, starting with the "dummy coins". I wrote down the sale prices of each coin next to the Greysheet price. That way I got a real-time indication of the "true price" of each coin.
Finally, when the coins came up for auction I was interested in, I closely followed the bidding and decided on the spot whether the price indicated was relatively good/bad compared to the "dummy coins".
To make a long story short, I bought two coins in the manner described above that I got for a lower priced than the "dummy coins", but were of similar quality.
Edited by NumisEd
01/26/2021 10:30 pm
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 Posted 01/26/2021  10:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Congratulations! I'm happy for you. Thanks for sharing your tips.

Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:15 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Out of curiosity, I ran through the bay's listings for circulated S half eagles 1855-1874 to see where pricing was relative to PCGS list. In most cases pricing is 50-100% higher than list - for details coins. Only two straight grade coins were priced at list.

There's a lot of optimism in pricing gouged, scratched and cleaned coins for double the price of a straight grade.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There's a lot of optimism in pricing gouged, scratched and cleaned coins for double the price of a straight grade.


It doesn't surprise me. I think there are plenty of sellers who crack-out a details coin and pass it off as straight AU or even BU.
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The details coins I saw are mostly in slabs. There are a few raw ones with obvious polishing. Raw circulated coins with natural appearance have disappeared.

The two relatively common coins in this run are the 1856-S and 1857-S. Not anymore.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
01/27/2021 11:42 am
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 Posted 01/27/2021  11:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Tonight I participated in a Heritage Auction and actually did win two coins.
Excellent!
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 Posted 01/27/2021  12:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Commemoratives still seem to be "bargains" compared to other coins.
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 Posted 02/14/2021  10:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Tonight I participated in a Great Collections auction for an 1859 IHC and a 1892 Barber Half. But this time I decided to hold firm on my limit and as a result didn't win either.
The IHC in MS62 condition went for an astronomical $561 (includes BF) while the Barber in AU Details condition went for a crazy high $545 (includes BF).
Edited by NumisEd
02/14/2021 10:53 pm
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 Posted 02/15/2021  01:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The 1859 IHC is a sought after Type Set coin made in ONLY that one year, as it's the one with no shield. The PCGS Retail Price Guide is $550. While the prior sale at GC on January 10, 2021 went for only $373, compare the eye appeal of that coin with the one sold tonight. The one in January has MANY unattractive green spots all over the obverse, where tonight's coin was more attractive.

This example of price differentiation is exactly what I described to you in your other IHC thread - looking at Greysheet pricing commoditizes coins, ignoring differences in eye appeal. Coins with nice eye appeal sell for more than those with lesser eye appeal, and depending on the eye appeal, one may have to pay up for that.

While the high bidder got it for $561, the underbidder was willing to pay $550, and the third highest bidder was willing to pay $517, all pricing with the BF. That tells me this coin apparently had real nice eye appeal compared to others graded MS62 by PCGS.

As for the 1892 Barber Half that sold tonight for $545, it was NOT AU Details, but UNC Details, which makes all the difference in the world! It's a very attractive coin that was Detailed by NGC due to a slight bend in the coin. Apparently the buyer was willing to tolerate that bend which might not be too noticeable in order to get that very attractive coin at less than MS62 money. I'm not an excellent grader, especially from looking at GC photos, but the strike looks super sharp, and the fields and devices on both sides look problem free. If someone with good grading skills chimes in and tells me this coin would grade as an MS65 had it not been for that bend, the thinking of the high bidder and underbidder is understandable.
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
Edited by Winesteven
02/15/2021 01:28 am
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