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Posted 12/22/2018 7:28 pm
OK lets get this updated-
Gold
Longer term context, gold has not looked great at all, its been in a downtrend. Down 4% for the year. Not a pretty chart long term and LOTS of overhead supply.
In a shorter term context, there has been some promise of trying to break higher which is a small positive. The price action in the past few months has improved. In fact, when the market started to roll over in the middle half of September, gold would also get driven lower until it had a change of character in mid November. Instead of diving lower in tandem with equity markets, it started to run higher and even gold miners follow suit.
However, this past week, gold really lost steam. Now one could debate the "why" such as the FOMC meeting but I dont waste my personal time with such trivial things. The only thing that pays me is price and how it acts.
Quite frankly, I take the fact that gold stalled this week with the incoming overall world equity markets move to a downtrend as indecision on the part of the market as to its view on gold. This sort of indecision should not be present in an asset that was ready to run higher and one that has acted better, stronger,expressed by price, in the past few weeks. In my experience, in most cases, when this indecision happens, the possibility of things starting to change again, exists.
The coming days and weeks are going to tell us a lot if gold is going to also join other market related assets such as stocks into the proverbial toilet or is planning on just chopping around, going no where, perhaps just trading sideways.
Silver
Talk about pathetic lol. Stuck in a downtrend in the context of an overall trend, down 14% for the year. Tons of overhead supply that it will have to chew through to get going. Shorter term, there is hardly much to cheer about if you are looking for higher prices. Sideways BEST in a shorter time frame and watch out if the yearly lows are hit, which are not far away. Run along, nothing to see here. Oh wait, shameless plug here, the silver 2018 somalian elephants do look GREAT in silver. Other than that, I'll pass on silver.
Lets talk gold miners. Many of them are stuck in either downtrends, especially the smaller miners. Others are really trying to put in some work to break out higher in a shorter time frame though again, this week, several of those miners took hits and the patterns look iffy at best for higher prices.
Then you have a few select miners that DID make yearly highs, 52 highs, which is very impressive in terms of price action. KL, is one of the best out there, making yearly highs and gets my eye. The market is sending a strong signal by putting it at 52 highs. Another miner that has hit yearly highs recently was AU, though I stay away from equities that are priced under 20 dollars as they really have a lot to prove.
You have the more established miners, several of which, look promising, IF, again, in the coming weeks they continue to build on their progress, so we will have to wait and see what the market decides. Two of the better ones at the moment are ABX and GOLD, which I understand are merging. There are others that look promising, such as RGLD, AEM, FNV and NEM.
The market will reveal its hand in the coming days and weeks as to whether it will view the PM miners, silver and gold as a safe haven or not. Be PATIENT and dont rush out to buy tons of gold and silver because you think it will avoid the current downtrend thats picked up steam in stocks, commodities, bonds and currencies worldwide. Remember, correlations come and go and perhaps the markets will not even want to touch PMs to park their money during this market downturn.
I'll post some commentary as I see fit with the miners; right now my impression of the markets is that they are not interested in any sort of asset except the US dollar and remaining in cash for now.
Again, lets be patient, watch the price action and let the market decide for us what its next move of importance will be.
Gold
Longer term context, gold has not looked great at all, its been in a downtrend. Down 4% for the year. Not a pretty chart long term and LOTS of overhead supply.
In a shorter term context, there has been some promise of trying to break higher which is a small positive. The price action in the past few months has improved. In fact, when the market started to roll over in the middle half of September, gold would also get driven lower until it had a change of character in mid November. Instead of diving lower in tandem with equity markets, it started to run higher and even gold miners follow suit.
However, this past week, gold really lost steam. Now one could debate the "why" such as the FOMC meeting but I dont waste my personal time with such trivial things. The only thing that pays me is price and how it acts.
Quite frankly, I take the fact that gold stalled this week with the incoming overall world equity markets move to a downtrend as indecision on the part of the market as to its view on gold. This sort of indecision should not be present in an asset that was ready to run higher and one that has acted better, stronger,expressed by price, in the past few weeks. In my experience, in most cases, when this indecision happens, the possibility of things starting to change again, exists.
The coming days and weeks are going to tell us a lot if gold is going to also join other market related assets such as stocks into the proverbial toilet or is planning on just chopping around, going no where, perhaps just trading sideways.
Silver
Talk about pathetic lol. Stuck in a downtrend in the context of an overall trend, down 14% for the year. Tons of overhead supply that it will have to chew through to get going. Shorter term, there is hardly much to cheer about if you are looking for higher prices. Sideways BEST in a shorter time frame and watch out if the yearly lows are hit, which are not far away. Run along, nothing to see here. Oh wait, shameless plug here, the silver 2018 somalian elephants do look GREAT in silver. Other than that, I'll pass on silver.
Lets talk gold miners. Many of them are stuck in either downtrends, especially the smaller miners. Others are really trying to put in some work to break out higher in a shorter time frame though again, this week, several of those miners took hits and the patterns look iffy at best for higher prices.
Then you have a few select miners that DID make yearly highs, 52 highs, which is very impressive in terms of price action. KL, is one of the best out there, making yearly highs and gets my eye. The market is sending a strong signal by putting it at 52 highs. Another miner that has hit yearly highs recently was AU, though I stay away from equities that are priced under 20 dollars as they really have a lot to prove.
You have the more established miners, several of which, look promising, IF, again, in the coming weeks they continue to build on their progress, so we will have to wait and see what the market decides. Two of the better ones at the moment are ABX and GOLD, which I understand are merging. There are others that look promising, such as RGLD, AEM, FNV and NEM.
The market will reveal its hand in the coming days and weeks as to whether it will view the PM miners, silver and gold as a safe haven or not. Be PATIENT and dont rush out to buy tons of gold and silver because you think it will avoid the current downtrend thats picked up steam in stocks, commodities, bonds and currencies worldwide. Remember, correlations come and go and perhaps the markets will not even want to touch PMs to park their money during this market downturn.
I'll post some commentary as I see fit with the miners; right now my impression of the markets is that they are not interested in any sort of asset except the US dollar and remaining in cash for now.
Again, lets be patient, watch the price action and let the market decide for us what its next move of importance will be.
