Like us on Facebook! Subscribe to our Youtube Channel! Check out our Twitter! Check out our Pinterest! Check out our Google+!
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?

Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some coins?
Our coin forum is completely free! Register Now!

What Lies in the Future?  
 

Next Page
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous Topic Topic Next Topic
Page: of 2
Pillar of the Community

United States
716 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  05:15 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add bosox to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I suspect these questions have been asked many times, in many different ways. I will ask them this way.

Compared to today, where will the price of a complete date decimal set of Canadian coins (say 1858-2017) be in twenty years?

As sub-set questions (feel free to comment on Maritime and NF):

Which series will move higher and which will move lower?

Which key date coins will be a good investment?

Will very high grade sets prove profitable?

Will variety coins last pricewise?

You get the idea. Where are we going long term? All prognostications welcome.
Edited by bosox
05/20/2018 05:24 am
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2083 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  07:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add doubleeagle59 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Lower prices, because of less demand and greater supply.

Less demand:

1. aging collector base

2. Reduced number of young collectors

Greater supply:

1. increasing number of graded coins in the Population reports (year after year)

2. more and more high quality collections have hit the market.

If inflation takes hold and coin prices rise greatly, it really doesn't make a difference since a loaf of bread will be $10.00.
Valued Member
Canada
194 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  09:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add don in nmkt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
20 years from now a great many silver coins will be melted due to the ridiculous high price of silver
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
14434 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  10:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Crystal ball stuff.
You can however, look back on the past records over the last 20 years.

For me, I don't really care where the numismatic markets will be in 20 years. I just always look for bargains, and buy as well as I can.
As it turns out, you will make a profit over a 20 years period in most cases, and almost certainly in a 40 year time span, provided that you always buy well. Nevertheless, there are much better investment opportunities than coins, even in the very long term.

My first house cost $35,500 in 1976, it is now valued at around $850,000 in 2018. That is an average compounded interest rate of 7% every year, for 42 years. That includes minus $190,000 (in 2018 values), interest paid included in the mortgage repayments.
No rent paid in that period. If I had paid rent over that period instead, I would have paid out $1.6 million (2018 values) in total. That is effectively saved money.
And the house that I live in would still not be mine.

My coins have done only about 1% above the inflation rate over the same period.

Best advice I have heard from a professional investment advisor:
"Kiss your wife sweetly every night, and let her know that she is valued." Keeps yourself in the right mind as well.
Divorces are expensive.
Bedrock of the Community
Learn More...
United States
15574 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  11:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
At some point the ridiculously huge number of non-circulation coins that the RCM is producing every year will break the Canadian "bank".

One gentleman added up all the costs of purchasing just one coin of each type for a single year - and it was many tens of thousands of dollars.

So the RCM is sucking out huge amounts of collector spending.

At some point collectors are finally going to quit that mass-produced-limited-edition "stuff". When they try to sell theirs they will be offered a fraction of the original price they've paid. They will be turned off completely.

At some point in the future that "stuff" will be sold at near bullion prices, and collector interest will again develop.

The classic coins will continue to be purchased and enjoyed.

The new Superman-battles-Smurfs-glow-in-the-dark-oval-shaped-gem-encrusted-14-ounce silver frisbee will sell for close to melt. Even if only 116 were minted.
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
Canada
867 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  12:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Canacoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My collection was intended originally for my kids to do
whatever they wanted to do with it . Ya know , party , vaca , etc...
As above the "value" of my coins has grown the same in twenty years, 1-1.5 %. At that rate they can all go to
Mcdonalds.
Me thinks the future good for collector's not so much
for the retail end of it.

Quote:
"Kiss your wife sweetly every night, and let her know that she is valued.

"Very"good advice
"If you going to err,do it with flair . That way you'll remember and not repeat the mistake"

W.R.Robertson
R.I.P.
Valued Member
Canada
300 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  12:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XWLCoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'd avoid alot of things that are only valuable because of their grade. Pop reports will continue to grow and flood out the market. Thinking specifically about the silver dollars in the 50s and 60s that MS65 trends at 600-1400 each with the MS64 grade being about 8x less expensive.

The coin I'd say would be a valuable investment is the 46 Newfoundland nickel. Only 2000 were ever minted and they can be picked in in circulated condition for as little as $800 each. The Mint state coins are highly undervalued too. I expect to see some big gains in the future for the 46 Newfoundland nickel. Possibly 3-4x in 20 years from now.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1936 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add okiecoiner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with "moxking" that the RCM has done far more harm than the little bit of good that it gives by "supposedly" giving youngsters their first look at numismatics. The RCM is nothing more than a producer of mostly-round metallic items, some with questionable design, that are on par with Beenie babies, pet rocks and collector game cards. For us here in Canada, the RCM has almost extinguished the pride of history in coin collecting for young folks. They are used, now, to expecting pristine shiney discs, not a piece of history that they can hold in their hands ... who bought bread, beer or apples with this?

My personal opinion is that another cause of the stagnation of the Canadian Numismatic market is the growth of slabbed coins and arious TPG's. As dealers and collectors certify more and more coins, the cost to acquire them and ready them for sale has increased ... and, in the interim, the asking price is rising or the profit is falling. The growth of TPG's has also brainwashed younger and less-experienced collectors that they HAVE TO have their coins certified to be accepted as true. You can no longer go to a coin show with a hundred dollars or two and come back with anything approaching what you could 5, 10, 20 years ago.

I think that higher grade (for me that's XF and above) Vickies of any denomination will continue to be where a great deal of the meat of the market will be and the best focus, as long as you don't get into a TPG numbers or population war. Trying to increase by one number what a TPG will give you for 62+ Vickies is putting a crimp on the market, especially with grading creep that has infected the TPG's in the last 10 years.

I think that Edward and George coinage will start to greatly pick up speed .. they are worth looking into. I think that varieties will continue to grow now that prices have somewhat stabilized from their first appearance on the market 8-10 years ago. Once a little more is known about how scarce some of these are, then the market will build. As a large cent Vicky collector, we need an expanded treatise with now stabilized prices/values that add to the 2011 Charlton variety section that we put out. Charlton or Haxby has GOT TO include a new variety category, developed by collectors not dealers, in their annual editions with a new denomination/monarch each year.
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
Canada
1359 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  1:38 pm  Show Profile   Check gidjit's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add gidjit to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
i think all the counterfiet coins comming out will destroy the market there are millions out there and more being made, and the quality keeps getting better. you can get them in counterfit PCGS and other TPG holders too. they need to stop China!
please check out my collection of large cents from 1858 - 1920 (under construction)
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/...l=4b87156114
Valued Member
Learn More...
Canada
260 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  4:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KHatt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


Quote:
The new Superman-battles-Smurfs-glow-in-the-dark-oval-shaped-gem-encrusted-14-ounce silver frisbee will sell for close to melt. Even if only 116 were minted.


I 100% agree. Non-circulating coinage will continue to have a weak resale market ... especially since there is too much of it for a collector to reasonably wanté/be able to have a complete set (which wasn't true of the early days of RCM products, PL sets or Silver dollars could be collected as a complete set ... today the RCM is little better than the Franklin Mint).
Valued Member
Learn More...
Canada
260 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  5:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add KHatt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Also, I don't think the softness in the coin prices over the last 10 reflects a lack of collector interest or the aging out of collectors (and I'm a 32 year old).

I think that the coin market has been disrupted over the last decade or so in the same way that Uber disrupted taxis, AirBnB disrupted hotelling, and Amazon disrupted retail/bookstores.

eBay changed the dynamics of the coin marketplace, joined later by coin websites and specialists auctions like Heritage.

It used to be that people mostly bought coins from either local coin stores, or coin shows, or occasionally coin auctions. These methods allowed a small-ish number of collectors to interact with a small-ish number of sellers in methods that often involved large transaction costs. More importantly, this allowed some of the demand (but likely the more motivated buyers) to come into contact with only a portion of supply. Since buyers could only see a portion of the available for sale, you got the impression that some coins were really scarce in the marketplace with maybe only 1 or 2 available at a show. Likewise, those who were not serious collectors had to rely on local stores, so anything they did not have in abundant stock seemed scarce.

Instead, we now have a dynamic were all collectors can see the stock of all (or at least most) of the sellers looking to sell at a given time, and there are lower transaction costs of exchange.

Three bits of anecdotal evidence backing this up:

- When I was in highschool I was an active collector and buyer-seller. I would go to coin shows and buy somewhat common(-ish) coins (like in the $25-100 range) often for below trends. There were many sellers at each show with those coins and you could often get a deal ... then I would go home and sell them on eBay, often for trends plus or minus a little. The people buying the coins were often from smaller communities that were not well served by coin shows or shops. Keep in mind that this was like 2000-2002 and paypal wasn't yet a thing (people still mailed cheques) so I didn't have the same level of competition

- the difference in the supply dynamics of coins shows versus eBay still exist. A recent report from a coin show on here mentioned a show where there was not a single 1948 dollar on the floor. There is currently 24 on eBay (all Buy-it-now of course).

What happened IMO is that the market shifted from a sellers market (or more accurately, a dealers market) to a buyer market, and even rare or condition rare coins became easier to find. Collector will no longer need to ask themselves "when is the next time I'm going to find a 1948 dollar or an MS 1858 20 cent for sale?". This meant that some material, especially scarce or rare coins, have decreased in value or stagnated as they became more accessible and supply became to exceed demand (at previous prices at least).

Why do I think the market is still strong?

Well, according to eBay Marketplace Analytics, the Coins:Canada and Banknotes:world -> Canada categories had $2,532,708.77 in sales over the last 3 months ... roughly working out to about $10 million in sales annually.

If I had to guess, that number plus what ever is still being sold at numismatic auctions (which almost all have online bids) and coins shows/boutique coin websites/stores is probably greater than the market activity that was happening a 10 years ago. And I would also guess that younger collectors are more likely to buy online ... so they exist even if you don't see us at the shows.

... anyway, that's why I'm still optimistic for the future of coin values.
Valued Member
Canada
51 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  8:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Cdncoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
KHatt, well said. I am in the same generation as you and I don't think the hobby is dying out. Bidding is quite strong for a lot of nice items on eBay. I do think it is tougher for organized numismatics, as I am often the youngest by far at my local coin club, which is unfortunate. I think a lot of younger people could be too busy with work/family to devote time, but also tend to spend more time hiding behind computers than interacting with people face-to-face.

Compared to today, where will the price of a complete date decimal set of Canadian coins (say 1858-2017) be in twenty years?
Higher - The more common dates, primarily the ones over the last 50 years, probably won't change much. The key dates and some of the semi-key dates will increase a little more than the rate of inflation.

As sub-set questions (feel free to comment on Maritime and NF):
The same comment as above.

Which series will move higher and which will move lower?
I echo the sentiments of many about the negative outlook for RCM non-circulating products. The nice thing with the $20 for $20 series is that there is a floor to their value, whereas this is not the case for the vast majority of product. We have recently seen Canada Post discount all their excess 2016 inventory by 25%. That still was not enough discount to clear it all out. My philosophy with these products is buy it if you truly like it, not because you hope to make a profit at some point. I wish I knew which series will move higher, than I would load up!

Which key date coins will be a good investment?
It is a crap-shoot. Probably the ones that are most in demand now and have been for the past 40 years.

Will very high grade sets prove profitable?
We have seen prices come down as more have been added to population reports. I would be cautious spending a ton of money on these (key dates aside) thinking that they will appreciate in value even at the rate of inflation.

Will variety coins last pricewise?
Some will, some won't. Newer discovered varieties may have a lot more out there than originally thought.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1485 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  9:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Smallcentguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think top ranked registry set material will do OK. By definition, there is only one top ranked coin and as long as there are two people in the world with money who care there will be a good market. The same logic applies to errors and top grade and scarce varieties.

The mundane silver will continue to get melted at a good rate. There will be the odd silver price rally here and there that will take moderate grade coins out of the market on an ongoing basis. I personally take out many many hundreds of coins a year.

Where I see the difficulty is in the mid grade expensive coin market. For example, in my world, just how many buyers of MS62 1924 cents will there be out there.......?

Valued Member
Canada
300 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2018  10:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add XWLCoins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
just how many buyers of MS62 1924 cents will there be out there.......?


Lol I just posted this coin at a $1 start bid on eBay a few hours ago.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
10469 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2018  02:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
You can no longer go to a coin show with a hundred dollars or two and come back with anything approaching what you could 5, 10, 20 years ago.


That's been true at every point in history. 20 years ago people would have said the same thing and 20 years from now they'll say the same thing about today.


Quote:
Also, I don't think the softness in the coin prices over the last 10 reflects a lack of collector interest or the aging out of collectors (and I'm a 32 year old).

I think that the coin market has been disrupted over the last decade or so in the same way that Uber disrupted taxis, AirBnB disrupted hotelling, and Amazon disrupted retail/bookstores.

eBay changed the dynamics of the coin marketplace, joined later by coin websites and specialists auctions like Heritage.

It used to be that people mostly bought coins from either local coin stores, or coin shows, or occasionally coin auctions. These methods allowed a small-ish number of collectors to interact with a small-ish number of sellers in methods that often involved large transaction costs. More importantly, this allowed some of the demand (but likely the more motivated buyers) to come into contact with only a portion of supply. Since buyers could only see a portion of the available for sale, you got the impression that some coins were really scarce in the marketplace with maybe only 1 or 2 available at a show. Likewise, those who were not serious collectors had to rely on local stores, so anything they did not have in abundant stock seemed scarce.

Instead, we now have a dynamic were all collectors can see the stock of all (or at least most) of the sellers looking to sell at a given time, and there are lower transaction costs of exchange.


This is essentially exactly what's happening and that isn't unique to Canada at all.
Valued Member
Canada
138 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2018  3:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add vonigohcr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think @doubleeagle59 nailed it but I also believe that there are other factors that will impact the overall value.

Supply of high quality coins will increase as collectors ultimately pass on and their heirs liquidate the collections.

Demand will decrease for the reasons noted previously but I want to add/reinforce a couple of things.

@gidjit raises a very valid concern; I think we discount the impact of counterfeits. To date, most counterfeits have been amateur hour. Making a cheap copy using non-standard alloys. Given that even the poorest quality 1948 Canadian SD will garner hundreds of dollars and a reasonable AU or low MS will yield thousands... It makes sense for someone with nefarious intent to invest in proper minting equipment, hire professional die makers, mix the correct silver alloy and mass produce counterfeits that are near impossible to detect. Hey, how do we know that it hasn't happened. We exist in a global marketplace and I recall 20 years ago, it was difficult to get your hands on a AU/MS 1948 SD. Now it is only a matter of coming up with the money... between Heritage, eBay et al. I have been watching with dismay the comments on the Australian boards regarding counterfeit shillings.

Counterfeits will create doubt in the overall marketplace and will inhibit prices climbing and may even collapse a market.

The other thing that is often overlooked is relevance. For most folks alive and all collectors, coins are relevant to daily life. When they lose that relevance, as is occuring with an increasing use of electronic payment methods from tapping cards & phones to e-banking etc., then coins will move to a position of anachronism and ultimately fall out of public awareness altogether.

In the past, horse brasses were used to embellish and augment the necessary draft horse tackle; consequently these were collected and a vibrant trade in collectible horse brasses existed... today, they are odd antiques with a very small and limited marketplace as the draft horse is essentially consigned to history.

One aspect of technology in the late 20th and 21st centuries is that the pace of change is fast and accelerating... I would be surprised to see cash in any form in use by 2050 in the western world. As the use of cash declines, so will the collectible value of cash artifacts (coins & paper) and much like the horse brasses of yesteryear, coin collecting will end up a fringe hobby on the part of a very few collectors. Stamp collecting and associated collection valuations are already in decline.

I agree with @moxking on NCLT... Even today, NCLT is not retaining its issue value with a very few exceptions. The old truism applies that "anything marketed as collectible... isn't".

All of this adds up to a fairly bleak long term outlook for the hobby as an investment vehicle. I took a quick look at the CCN trends for Canadian Silver Dollars from an old copy in 2015 compared to current and at the highest reported quality (MS-65) all values are at best flat and in some cases significantly lower.

Whether this is a consequence of population reports, increased supply, reduced demand, or general availability in a global marketplace the trend is there, albeit only 30 months long and on a single data sample (Canadian SDs).

It has been said many times before and it bears repeating... Spend and collect what interests you from disposable income. Whether it is Doulton Figurines, Horse Brasses, NCLT or circulating coins. Enjoy collecting and the collection you amass.

Don't expect your collection to provide retirement income or even a ROI.

If you insist on investing in coins, limit yourself to bullion and join the throngs of precious metal speculators hoarding their stash and waiting for each percentage rise or fall in gold & silver.
Page: of 2 Previous Topic Topic Next Topic  
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.

Coin Community Member eBay Sales

Ending Soon   Newly Listed   Lowest Price   Highest Price   Certified Coins   Certified VAMs   Certified Errors  




Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2018 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use

Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2018 Coin Community Forums
It took 1.39 seconds to rattle this change. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05