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Are We On The Verge Of A Cashless Society?

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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
2478 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  10:35 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add DavidUK to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Less and less are using cash but as a civil liberty you are more likely to see guns withdrawn and legal compulsion to carry ID than see cash disappear. There is just no way any sensible public would place them in a position of being unable to make transactions without third party approval. This would make everybody completely at the mercy of the state.
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United States
86044 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  10:48 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I certainly embrace being cashless myself as a matter of choice. I do not want it forced on anyone, even if such mandate would not affect me. That is how Liberty works.
Valued Member
United States
224 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  11:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
... Debit cards are very dangerous. Banks often offer no protection or remediation when they are compromised ...


Quote:
... I had mine compromised twice last year. Only cost was the time it took to report it and I got a new card overnight ...


One of these things is not like the other.

For many years now, I have only been offered bank debit cards with full from-the-first-dollar fraud protection, leading me to think that this is now pretty much universal.

Those cash & gift cards you buy over-the-counter are vulnerable to theft & fraud.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
Edited by ikeyPikey
03/27/2020 11:28 am
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United States
86044 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  3:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
One of these things is not like the other.
To be clear, I had my credit card compromised.
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  5:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Banknotes and coins in circulation per inhabitant in USD at exchange rate that year
-2018 -2008 -1998 -1988 -1978 Country
$1417 $1168 $726 $470 $326 United Kingdom
$1924 $1444 $685 $554 $320 Canada
$5238 $2927 $1679 $870 $428 United States

There are a lot of comments about civil liberties to carry cash. But how much cash should there be in circulation to guarantee your civil liberties? Sweden's two largest banknotes since 1991 have been 1000SEK~90.66EUR and 500SEK~45.33EUR.

Circulation quantities in thousands of Swedish krona are listed for December 2001 and February 2020 for those two banknotes.

500 kr 1000 kr in Sweden
40,727 kr 48,358 kr 2001 Dec
38,789 kr 2,965 kr 2020 Feb

The quantity of 1000SEK banknotes (less than 3 million notes for a population of 10 million) are ridiculously small. I would go so far as to say that the only purpose of printing such a small quantity is that the government does not want to go through the legal requirements to eliminate the denomination entirely.

The official position of the Riksbank is that the amount of currency in circulation is not regulated by government fiat, but by supply and demand from the public.

Frankly, the Swedish people seem perfectly OK with that statement. Denmark and Norway are also reducing the number of 1000kr banknotes in circulation, but not nearly as drastically as Sweden.

However, my question to you is what do you think about your government reducing the amount of cash in circulation? What if the ECB decides to eliminate the 100 and 200 EUR banknote? The Canadian, Australian, or US $100 banknote?

Iceland has openly discussed eliminating the 10,000ISK~64.77EUR denomination that was just introduced on October 24, 2013. There are now over 4 million of this denomination notes in circulation for a population of 364 thousand.

The probability of your government severely curtailing the amount of cash in circulation, and/or permitting private stores to remove cash registers is much higher than your government stopping the production of all cash.

Edited by PacoMartin
03/27/2020 6:56 pm
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
16946 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2020  9:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have only used a debit card one or twice a year, when forced to.
All of the rest of the time, I use cash.
As said before, I use cash budgeting, and I have never been in debt in my life - so why would I ever bother with a credit card?

Electronically, I am very close to non existent.
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 03/28/2020  09:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Banknotes and coins in circulation per inhabitant in USD at exchange rate that year
 2018	 2008	1998	1988	1978	Country
$1417	$1168	$726	$470	$326	United Kingdom
$1924	$1444	$685	$554	$320	Canada
$5238	$2927	$1679	$870	$428	United States
$4230	$3324	$1759	$1300	$680	Germany/Euro
To repeat, the central bank does not need to issue a lot of banknotes so that you average person can do cash budgeting. Britain is still circulating enough cash over the last 40 years to permit someone to operate in all cash if they so desire.

But the US has made cash in the form of $100 banknotes circulating around the world as a significant portion of international finance. The Euro Area has also made significant inroads into global finance.

Of course, US cash is ethically neutral. It could be used for the savings of a cobbler who is afraid of the stability of his own currency, or it could finance a global human trafficking network.

Edited by PacoMartin
03/28/2020 10:58 am
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
16946 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  07:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Cash is king right now, but if ever inflation takes hold, (and it may do after COVID-19),
I will buy back into shares of good companies with good balance sheets going forward, and with good future business prospects.
I may be a bit late. Buffett is doing this right now.
I will review any advice I may get prom a professional share advisor, if I have to. It may? be worth his fee.
Valued Member
United States
377 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  08:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lionel90 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I use both cash and credit cards. Never had a debit card in my life and don't want to pay with my phone. it will be a privacy concern when the time comes for me to go cashless. Hotels like credit cards especially handy when I book in advance. Gas is so easy with a credit card, but I don't get the cool coins that Dorado gets at his gas station. I hope the US keeps making coins and cash until I get tired of collecting them.
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  3:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Cash is likely to remain popular in much of the world. The following nations or "currency areas" that are members of the BIS circulate more than $1000 per inhabitant at exchange rate at the time. The three great currencies and the three finance centers produce a lot of cash.

Per inhabitant converted to USD (end of 2018) BIS statistics
$10,194	CH	Switzerland
$8,471	HK	Hong Kong
$8,290	JP	Japan
$6,378	SG	Singapore
$5,238	US	United States
$4,230	XM	Euro area
..
$2,404	AU	Australia
$2,003	KR	Korea
$1,924	CA	Canada
$1,683	SA	Saudi Arabia
$1,417	GB	United Kingdom
The bottom five countries are potential candidates for reaching a "plateau of cash" whereby most of the new cash will simply be replacing worn-out banknotes. Korea is the most likely of the five countries.

Denmark, Norway, Iceland and other European nations are not part of Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Many circulate cash in the same range as the bottom 5 countries above.

Sweden more or less reached a plateau from 2000-2007 and then cash diminished until January 2018. It's been increasing since then which makes me believe that to eliminate cash completely will take an organized campaign, which governments are reluctant to undertake.

At the end of 2015 Norway had 36.71 million 500NOK banknotes (~US$48) in circulation after which they announced a series VIII banknotes would be produced in France. So far they have ordered 75.61 million replacement 500NOK banknotes. So they obviously will have enough new notes to replace the old notes for several years. Norway is also circulating 14 million 1000NOK banknotes (~US$96) as of the end of 2018. The Norges Bank has not published how many replacement notes have been ordered.

But Norway has only six urban areas, Sweden has seven urban areas, and Denmark has four urban areas with a population over 100,000. What works for Scandinavia may not work elsewhere.


The plateau, SEK per inhabitant in circulation
2000	11,013 kr
2001	12,039 kr
2002	11,989 kr
2003	12,161 kr
2004	12,107 kr
2005	12,301 kr
2006	12,375 kr
2007	12,494 kr
2008	12,130 kr (started downward)
...
2017	 5,731 kr
Edited by PacoMartin
03/29/2020 4:53 pm
Valued Member
United States
117 Posts
 Posted 03/29/2020  11:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Vindex to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Or are we on the verge of a hard asset (tangible ) society. The ancients predicted one day that a piece of bread would buy a bag of gold. So if you are starving and need a piece of bread and all you have to pay is: cardano, tron, tezos, bitcoin, litecoin, ethereum - you might starve. start accumulating that bag of gold
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2020  05:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Are you talking about Revelation 6:5-6 and the famine at the end-times and the price of food?
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2020  06:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Top 6 cashless society countries: Finland, Sweden and China lead way January 16, 2020 by Robin http://www.netimperative.com/2020/0...na-lead-way/
Finland
Sweden
China
South Korea
United Kingdom
Australia

The TOP 6 list is a little surprising to me. Sweden, China, and South Korea (eliminating coins) are generally on the top of everyone's list when discussing the potential to go cashless.

Finland had a largely cashless society before adopting the Euro. But the ECB had very strict rules about how much cash each nation was responsible to produce and Finland and France had to make a lot of cash.

UK and Australia may make a lot more electronic payments, but they don't seem to me to be even considering a cashless society.
Edited by PacoMartin
04/01/2020 06:02 am
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United States
86044 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2020  11:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Cashless could happen on its own as people "age out" of the system and the younger generations embrace it. But that might take a long time, longer than we are alive.

Government mandates could force it sooner, but I suspect the current US political climate will never allow that to happen here.
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 04/01/2020  2:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PacoMartin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It looks like there are two pre-cursors to a society reducing cash
(1) The elimination of handwritten checks. People are "aging out" of this system as more convenient payment systems are developed, but in Scandinavia, they began attaching "processing fees" associated with writing checks. The fees reduce check writing to nearly zero, after which it was easier to simply prohibit it entirely.
(2) A "plateau" in the amount of cash in circulation which could last for several years. During this period the new banknotes that enter into circulation simply replace worn out notes. Sweden entered into this plateau from 2001-2007, and Denmark and Norway are just entering into it in recent years. China may be entering into a plateau.

Sweden's Central Bank digital currency (CBDC) may prove to be too much of a threat to Master/Visa Card and the SWISH money transfer system (primarily phone apps) developed by Swedish banks. The Riksbank is stating that they don't expect the e-krona to grow to be much bigger than the current value of banknotes and coins (~US$5 billion for the entire country of 10 million). The Riksbank does not want the e-krona to upset the established order. I know that the Bank of England is investigating a CBDC that would be much more ambitious in the goal.

CBDC will get a gigantic boost if the government uses it as their sole way to pay money it owes to their citizens (such as paying income tax refunds).

A factor which will only affect small countries is the location where banknotes are produced. The Scandinavian countries can no longer afford to produce their own banknotes, so they are made in Britain or France. As they are now an expense which does not provide any jobs, they may be perceived as less important.

Switzerland is a small country and they make some of the most beautiful and secure banknotes in the world, but the payback is huge because people outside of Switzerland use these banknotes as store of value. They are not even considering eliminating the CHF1000 banknote which is worth ~US$1000.
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