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2018 Commems - 6 weeks to go

 
 
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 Posted 11/20/2018  7:24 pm Show Profile   Check BadDog's eBay Listings Bookmark this topic Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
With 6 weeks of sales remaining for the year (that is assuming the Mint doesn't stop sales before the end of the year like they did in 2017), this is how this year's commemoratives stack up against sales of the other modern commemoratives. All mintages are from the latest production and sales report as of 11/18.

BCA coins
$1 PRF - 32,647 2nd lowest (Boys Town at 31,610 is lowest)
$1 UNC - 11,782 lowest (Might still end up higher than Boys Town at 12,234)
$5 PRF - 9,994 2nd lowest (Boys Town at 7,347 is lowest)
$5 UNC - 4,275 2nd lowest (Boys Town at 2,947 is lowest)

WWI coins
$1 PRF - 121,816 19th lowest (stand alone coins 59,010, coins sold w/ medals 62,806)
$1 UNC - 20,381 9th lowest

I don't collect the half dollars and don't follow those numbers, but perhaps someone who does can add them.

Not even the draw of the new composition of rose gold could provide much of a boost over last year's dismal Boys Town half eagle sales. That surprised me a bit, as I thought this one year type coin might have a bigger attraction. I suppose this coin could still be a winner in the long run, provided it remains a one year type.

The Mint's sales tactic of pairing a silver dollar commemorative with silver medals looks like it was successful. More coins have been sold with the medals than single coins by themselves. The Mint is repeating this tactic with next year's American Legion coin, pairing it with a yet to be determined medal. The Mint seems determined to strike silver medals and there may be a large enough collector base now that this medal pairing will also provide a significant boost to the coin sales, but I don't expect it to work as well with just the single medal versus the five for this year. Only time will tell.

All-in-all it seems to me that the 2018 commemoratives did little to reverse the trend of decreasing sales, with the exception of pairing the WWI proof with medals. It will be interesting to see if the curved Apollo coins are able to reverse the trend next year.

Any thoughts?
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 Posted 11/20/2018  8:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jst1dreamr to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
IMO, If the U.S. mint didn't try to rape our wallets and went back to making a modest profit they would multiply sales many times. It is another case of government greed.
Edited by jst1dreamr
11/20/2018 8:37 pm
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 Posted 11/20/2018  9:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Alpha2814 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Those BCA numbers are surprising. It's not the greatest design and the same among all denominations, but I'd have thought the sympathetic theme would have produced more sales than that.
Working on: Peace dollars (two to go), US type (Bust era), Chinese pandas, and San Francisco tokens.

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 Posted 11/21/2018  07:48 am  Show Profile   Check Foxwoods Man's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Foxwoods Man to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Maybe if they reduced the mintage limit to something reasonable they would actually sell more and the benefiting agencies would get more cash.

Setting a 400,000 or 350,000 limit for a coin that sells under 33,000/13,000 or 59k/20k (stand alone) is a bit aggressive and makes it a "not interested" coin. Maybe a 100k limit would have worked. People associated with the projects would buy one regardless of the mintage but that usually is a small group...

Same thing will happen with the Apollo issues

Just a thought...and I know the mintage was NOT set by the Mint

Edited by Foxwoods Man
11/21/2018 07:49 am
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 Posted 11/21/2018  12:00 pm  Show Profile   Check BadDog's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Maybe if they reduced the mintage limit to something reasonable they would actually sell more and the benefiting agencies would get more cash.


Hasn't the market in effect already reduced the mintage? Anyone who wants a low mintage coin can buy one now.

Actual mintages hardly ever come close to the maximum mintages allowed by the authorizing legislation. The last time there was a sold out mintage was the 2014 Baseball HOF half eagle and it sold out quickly on the first day. Was that because of the topic? or because the coin was curved?

Will something similar occur with the Apollo half eagles? I suppose if the Mint puts a household limit on, and dealers start offering to pay folks to buy the coins for them, then it will be time to get your order in

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 Posted 11/21/2018  2:13 pm  Show Profile   Check Foxwoods Man's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Foxwoods Man to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Hasn't the market in effect already reduced the mintage? Anyone who wants a low mintage coin can buy one now


Yup...BUT it's a PERCEIVED scarcity that creates interest. If they put a limit of 50k they would have been gone in a week or less and selling for decent premiums...400k? Not interested now because few collectors wanted them when they WERE available. .

Commems seem to be off the radar because they are perceived to always have a out of whack mintage limit BUT, with that said, their main purpose is to get cash for the subject involved...

...and re: HH limits for the Apollo issues...no reason to with those numbers BUT if they do impose them they will be gone in 24-48 hours. I REALLY doubt these are on any dealers watch list
Edited by Foxwoods Man
11/21/2018 2:14 pm
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 Posted 11/21/2018  3:21 pm  Show Profile   Check BadDog's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
re: HH limits for the Apollo issues...no reason to with those numbers BUT if they do impose them they will be gone in 24-48 hours


Although 31 U.S.C. 5112 (m)(2)(A)(iii) limits the maximum authorized mintage for either $5 or $10 gold commemoratives to 100,000, the specific authorizing laws for the 2017, 2018 and 2019 commemoratives further limits the maximum mintage to 50,000. The Baseball HOF $5 half eagle was also limited to 50,000 (The reported mintage is 50,101. I doubt anyone went to jail for minting 101 too many ). The Baseball HOF coin was a quick sell out. TPG graded 70s typically now sell for around 50% above the Mint issue price.

The 2017 and 2018 half eagles didn't come anywhere close to being sold out. Even so, the latest TPG graded 70s eBay sales for last years Boys Town half eagle (the current key date) are around double the Mint issue price.

The Apollo half eagle is once again curved and the topic probably has as broad an appeal as the Baseball HOF. IMHO it's worthwhile to keep this coin on the radar to see how the Mint markets it and its potential for being a sell out
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 Posted 11/21/2018  3:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Just look at how the lower mintage helped the 2016 Liberty medals and the earlier 2015 C&C sets.
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 Posted 11/21/2018  3:57 pm  Show Profile   Check Foxwoods Man's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Foxwoods Man to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not exactly commemorative issues...no surcharge benefiting anyone soooo...low mintage limits possible
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 Posted 11/21/2018  5:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
True, but they are an example of how mintage affects sales. The higher mintage on the Kennedy and Reagan C&C sets killed the buzz. Low mintage feeds FOMO.
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 Posted 11/21/2018  11:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jack jeckel to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Are those numbers across all sets and packaging or just the packaging that includes only the aforementioned coin?

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 Posted 11/22/2018  12:48 pm  Show Profile   Check BadDog's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Are those numbers across all sets and packaging or just the packaging that includes only the aforementioned coin?


Legislated maximum mintages are across all packages and types, i.e., the authorized 50,000 mintage for the $5 2019 American Legion coins is for both uncirculated and proof coins including the individually packaged coins and the 3 coin proof set.

Current reported mintages are reported by denomination and type (proof or uncirculated). The Mint used to also break it down by package type, but they no longer do that (2013 was the last year broken out by package type).

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 Posted 11/22/2018  9:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The Mint's sales tactic of pairing a silver dollar commemorative with silver medals looks like it was successful.


I'd say yes and no. For the commem itself it seemed to have helped, for the medals I think it's pretty clear it held those back. Seems to be a matter of perspective with the wild card of how many people sat them out because they were annoyed with that tactic.


Quote:
Those BCA numbers are surprising. It's not the greatest design and the same among all denominations, but I'd have thought the sympathetic theme would have produced more sales than that.


I don't think that plays a role at all. It's an issue that gets a ton of press, worthy issue but so is every wide spread disease. Anyone who is trying to make sure the issue gets addressed will donate directly as they could spend half as much as the commemorative cost and put a lot more money in the pocket of the organization.

The amount of people that would buy one just so they "donated" a little is very small. I've always felt disease subjects like that aren't a good idea anyway. They're a depressing topic to a lot of people when collecting is supposed to be fun and an escape. There's still plenty of historical events, people, groups, ships, ect that can be done without keeping down this path of a terminal illness short set.


Quote:
The last time there was a sold out mintage was the 2014 Baseball HOF half eagle and it sold out quickly on the first day. Was that because of the topic? or because the coin was curved?


Both in my opinion but also because the mintage for the gold was fairly reasonable. The 50k pushed it a little bit but that was one of the few topics and new novelty with a great design that could absorb that mintage. That said the half never sold out even though it was an insanely popular topic with a brand new curved coin. That is very strong evidence of what we all already know, mintage does matter.

Lower mintage everyone wants it, mintage to demand or a mintage to high and a lot of people lose interest and know they can get it cheaper on the after market if they wait a bit.


Quote:
Will something similar occur with the Apollo half eagles? I suppose if the Mint puts a household limit on, and dealers start offering to pay folks to buy the coins for them, then it will be time to get your order in


I doubt dealers would pay much for them with the high limit. There's going to be a grading delay anyway with the TPGs making a new slab for them unless they've gotten some info and are working on it already. Maybe a small flip potential selling to a couple big dealers if they did, but usually the dealers only offer that when they expect a sell out.

Ironically the ultra low household limits on something that does sell out fast really just drives up the after market price. The more dealers have to pay for it the more they have to charge to make money from it
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 Posted 11/22/2018  10:11 pm  Show Profile   Check BadDog's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BadDog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
For the commem itself it seemed to have helped, for the medals I think it's pretty clear it held those back.

I suppose one could say the medals weren't a success since they didn't come close to being sold out. However, the way I look at it is that the Mint by law HAD to strike the coins and didn't have to strike the medals. Also, once they chose to strike the medals, then they didn't have to pair them with the coins. So, IMHO creating the medals and pairing them with the coins was a sales tactic to increase the sales of the coins, which appears to have worked well enough that the Mint is emulating the tactic once again in 2019 with the American Legion commemorative.
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 Posted 11/22/2018  10:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I suppose one could say the medals weren't a success since they didn't come close to being sold out. However, the way I look at it is that the Mint by law HAD to strike the coins and didn't have to strike the medals. Also, once they chose to strike the medals, then they didn't have to pair them with the coins. So, IMHO creating the medals and pairing them with the coins was a sales tactic to increase the sales of the coins, which appears to have worked well enough that the Mint is emulating the tactic once again in 2019 with the American Legion commemorative.


I look at it the other way myself where I think the medals would have sold out and more of the commemorative would have sold on its own without the medals. I think we can both agree it's fair to say that there were people who didn't buy the commemorative by itself because they waited for the one with the medal. That's the main reason I am skeptical of how much the medal combo really drove sales of the dollar.
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