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2019 Rp ASE Vs 1995 W ASE

 
 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
552 Posts
 Posted 11/20/2019  11:52 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Ballyhoo to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I missed out on the 2019 reverse proof which, as you all know, is sold out. That said, I see these currently listed on EBAY as presales for just under $1000.

With a mintage limit set at 30,000 it falls just under the 30,125 of the 1995w. Looking at the latter, it is selling between 15,000 and 18,000 in proof 70. The question is, should I roll the dice and buy one hoping for a 70 grade? Or wait until they appear, but at what price?

Common sense tells me that these have tremendous long term potential equal to the 1995w. Thoughts?
Pillar of the Community
United States
807 Posts
 Posted 11/21/2019  07:05 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Big-Kingdom to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My thoughts. It was a differ time in 1995. The Internet sucked, the mint hadn't yet refined their proof making formula, and the 1995W was sold in a 10th anniversary set with 4 gold Eagles and sold for $999 initially while the regular stand alone proof silver eagle was $23.00.

There is going to be a whole lot of PR70S from the 2019S ERP. I think more than half of the 30K will be PR70. The 1995W has had 325 graded PR70.

I think a lot of this "hotness" on the 2019S ERP is speculation and Christmas being right around the corner. I think as time goes on the PR70 could become a lot more common, even 2019W ERP common (9 of 10 of those were PR70).
If that happens. The 70s won't be worth much more than the 69s. Maybe double at best. There will be plenty for registry set collectors and those people that want the best for their collection. Once it's realized I can see these prices falling off right after christmas especially when the hype dies down.

ANACS was founded in the late 70s. PCGS and NGC in the mid 1980s but coin grading services wasn't really popular in the hobby until late 90s early 2000s it happened but not on the level that it is now with eBay and online auction sites and Amazon and just where the Internet is at compared to 1995.

For these reasons the 2019S ERP isn't going to come anywhere near the 1995W in pricing for a PR70.
I am surprised it broke $1000 raw though but I think a lot of that has to do with flippers and Christmas coming and people wanting to buy something special and hot for their coin collector loved one.

I think selling one now is a good move and buying one now is a bad move and everything will adjust out in a month or so when the hype runs down and Christmas passes. I think as more and more PR70 get graded and the sellers start undercutting each other to sell them the price will come down, and so will the PR69s and so will the ungraded coin if more than half will be PR70.

I don't think it will hold at $1000+ for ungraded even once they've all shipped and are in hand, but I can't see them being less than 3x mint price, or even 5-8x or 10x mint price wouldn't be surprising.

I think it's getting close to peak as it is and a bad time to get caught in the hype and buy.

My 2 cents.

Pillar of the Community
United States
2759 Posts
 Posted 11/21/2019  3:52 pm  Show Profile   Check SA4H's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SA4H to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very in dept but 'common sense' analysis by Big-Kingdom.

I'm on the same boat, and I am sitting on the sideline now, waiting for the right moment.
I've learned a lot and try to reflect upon previous USMint "Hyper-release", such as the 2011 ASE set.... price peaked and I didn't sell, now price dropped down and I still enjoy the coin (but IF I was to "make money" then I should have sold to the hype and come back to buy NOW!.

Best wishes.
'Pytellc': I am still waiting for my $50 world coins from you, Mr. Carson Pytell!

*+*Bruce*+*
My coins available for trade. - My coins for sale - Coins I want/need.
"Living to Learn, Not Learning to Live!"
Yet, I'm learning to live more than living to learn!
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