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I Don't Win Auctions Anymore. How Should I Adjust My Bidding?

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 Posted 12/14/2020  3:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add suipakpaikungfu to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I also think many people are getting wise to PQ coins. I used to be able to
pick high (for the grade) coins for the same price as average for the grade coins.
Now I have to pay more. If the strike was as you say, I'm not surprised it sold high.
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 Posted 12/14/2020  9:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I Don't Win Auctions Anymore. How Should I Adjust

Have you thought about changing your Deodorant ?
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 Posted 01/03/2021  02:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's always a crapshoot, so maybe you should alter your approach somewhat. Me, I just figure out a price I'm comfortable with after doung some basic price/grade research, enter that as my top price, and let the house deal with it. Sometimes my bid comes in winning a bit lower and I'm a haply camper. I like keeping the angst down low, so if I get outbid,I just forget it and move on because there will always be another opprortunity for that same coin down the road. On auction sites like ebay, I'll make an offer something reasonably lower if they do a "make an offer" thing and see what happens. Always feel free to walk away if things become troublesome.

Still, you might want to try seeking out online auction houses that aren't all that well known, especially ones that don't deal expressly in coins. Y'now, where the lots also include household "antiques". You'll find a good bit of worn coin junk in there because it'll basically be dead peoples' stuff, but you may find a gem in there and the bidding competition will be way less than what you see on ebay and coin auction sites.
Edited by STTScott
01/03/2021 02:09 am
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 Posted 01/03/2021  02:07 am  Show Profile   Check GrapeCollects's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GrapeCollects to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As others have said it really can be quite interesting. I recently-ish purchased a nicely toned 1957 Washington quarter PCGS MS67 with attractive mint set toning. There were 2 nearly identical coins hammering that night, the one I bought had a rich blue color and the other the same blue but a slightly lighter shade. I decided to go after the full blue coin and got it for $50, the other hammered for $100. Effectively identical coins at the same auction house on the same night. Weird right?
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 Posted 01/03/2021  4:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I had good luck with last second bidding on eBay. I don't think that works on Heritage though. On Great Collections, I won my Trade dollar by entering my max bid well in advance (this coin will be featured on "Guess the Price Season 75"). The final sales price was not even close to my max bid.
Edited by NumisEd
01/03/2021 4:13 pm
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 Posted 01/03/2021  9:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I obtain most of my coins via auction, and while I'm aggressive, I have also recently been blown out on several coins that ended up way above the max bid I mentally set. I'm going to share some random thoughts on the initial question, along with observations on some of the replies, in no particular order. I will also share what I consider two important tips on bidding strategies.


Quote:
Not to mention the 20% buyers fee, possible sales tax, and shipping. Be careful... that's going to add up to maybe 50%+ over your researched prices.


1. Once one has done their pricing research, you really need to make sure your max bid takes the B.P. into account, along with sales tax, so that if indeed you are the high bidder, the total price you pay is not higher than your researched max price. I suspect most people reading this make those mental pricing adjustments, but apparently not everyone does.

2. Coins are not commodities, where every MS6x is the same as the next one in that same grade. Eye appeal matters BIG TIME, especially as you climb the grading scale. It sounds like @Sharkman has developed a better eye, or maybe is seeking out higher graded coins with strong eye appeal as the reason for missing out more than in the past. Regardless, I strongly suggest to determine your price well before the auction starts, and stick with it. Leave emotions out! Don't chase a coin, as that is how you will end up overpaying and getting buried in that coin. On the otherhand, as I mentioned at the beginning, I bid aggressively, so if there's a coin I really want, I don't mind paying a "strong" price, even if that's not a bargain.

3. keep in mind we now have a "Two Tier" Market - coins with CAC's and coins without CAC's. Like it or not, coins with CAC's IN GENERAL have been holding steady in price, or increasing in price over the past few years, while those without CAC's IN GENERAL have been dropping in price. As such, when doing pricing research, compare apples to apples. if the coin in the auction has a CAC, look mainly at sale prices of coins in that grade with CAC's.

4. Comments made above regarding being the underbidder are so true. You really have no idea if the high bidder's max bid just happened to be only one bid increment above yours, or a lot more. My guess is more often than not, it was more than just that one increment.

5. My first tip on bidding strategy (and this is subjective - not everyone will agree) is NEVER place your bid any earlier than you need to. For those that place their max bids early, even when you end up as the high bidder at a price well below your maximum bid, you may still have ended up paying more than you otherwise would have had you bid at the end. For example, say your max bid is $500, and you ended up the high bidder at only $380. Yes you are happy, but MAYBE others were just chipping away at your "current' high bid over time, seeing you still topped them, then over time gave it more thought, and bid higher again. then still gave it more thought, and bid even higher again. Ultimately they gave up and you got it for $380 plus b.p. I truly believe that in this example had you waited until the end to place your max bid, MAYBE you would have been the high bidder at $320 or so, as the person who got outbid did not have the time to ponder if they should go up anther increment or two.

6. I believe the end part of this last point is the one of most value: With Heritage, to bid late you can utilize their "Live Bid" feature, which allows you to place your max bid a day or more before the coin comes on the auction block (so you don't have to hang around your computer). That max bid is not acted on during the Proxy bidding portion of the auction - it's just kept on the side until that lot actually comes on the block. While their instructions imply that you can place that bid only 24 hours before THAT SESSION starts, the unknown secret is that you can actually place your max bid on Live Bid 24 hours before the VERY FIRST session of that auction. So if it's a multi-day Heritage Auction, and your lot is in the Sunday session, but the first session is on a Thursday, you can actually place your max Live Bid on Wednesday, 24 hours before that Thursday session starts. This is important if your max bid is tied by a Live Bid placed after yours, or if someone truly bids live as the coin is on the block. The tie goes to YOU. However, if during the Proxy bid period someone makes a Proxy bid the same as your max Live Bid, the Proxy bid will win a tie over a Live Bid. This strategy has helped me numerous times.

7. One final unrelated point regarding terminology. Almost all of us use the term "Winning" a lot at an auction, whether it's an eBay auction or a Heritage, Stacks, GC auction, etc. I don't consider being the end high bidder as having "Won" the coin. I consider it as having BOUGHT the coin at a price I was willing to pay (and there was an underbidder and others who chose not to pay as much as me at that time for that coin). When I "Win" something, maybe it's a raffle, or a horse race, or a football bet, where I end up with something of more value than what I paid for that opportunity. Just my thougts.

A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/03/2021  9:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I disagree with the Heritage strategy outlined above. All early max bids at Heritage are essentially worthless as long as they have their phony "live bidding" as well.
Because during "live bidding", your max bid can easily be flushed out by continued small increment bidding by a competitor. Heritage even gives one several seconds to think about it.
What I do with Heritage is to follow the proxy bidding "war" and determine an hour before the "live bidding" if the price is still reasonable or not. If not, I bow out. If it is reasonable, I join the "live bidding ".

So far, I have been interested in a dozen or so Heritage lots but in every case, the final proxy bid before the "live bidding" session was completely nuts in my opinion.
I seriously start to wonder if Heritage "winners" are actually doing their homework. Especially in the case of foreign coins I find that similar coins can often be bought for much less elsewhere than on Heritage.
Edited by NumisEd
01/03/2021 9:25 pm
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 Posted 01/03/2021  9:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
if the price is still reasonable or not. If not, I bow out. If it is reasonable, I join the "live bidding ".


But if you do join Live Bid when it's on the block, and the most you bid is the same as my max Live bid, then you lose out to me, which is the point I was making. If your max bid is higher than mine, then I would have lost to you regardless of ANY bidding strategy. In the meantime, I may be relaxing over some fine wine at a restaurant, or watching TV, or spending time with friends, or some other ralaxing activity, while you have to watch your computer screen every second at that time. Separately, G-d forbid if your internet connection gets hung up.
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
Edited by Winesteven
01/03/2021 9:31 pm
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 Posted 01/03/2021  9:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No, because I would flush out your max bid by $5.
Besides, as I mentioned before, I never got to the "live bidding " session as in all occasions the final proxy bid was just "stupid".
Edited by NumisEd
01/03/2021 9:43 pm
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 Posted 01/03/2021  10:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
No, because I would flush out your max bid by $5.


Actually, that's incorrect, as your bid during Live Bid on Heritage would have to be a full bidding increment above my max bid (or use a one time only split bid increment). The strategy you describe by the $5 only works on eBay and GC. That's why I never place my max bid early on those two auction sites. When I place my max bid in the last few seconds on those sites, you won't have time to think about trying to outbid me by $5. But again, that's my point. I avoid the error of placing my max bid on those sites early, because if I did place it early, then you and others would indeed have plenty of time to try to flush out my max bid. And even if in that situation you chose a few times to catch me but then chose to stop, my ending cost would have been higher than it otherwise would have been had I not placed my max bid early.


Quote:
Besides, as I mentioned before, I never got to the "live bidding " session as in all occasions the final proxy bid was just "stupid".


Oh, I see!

Or possibly others felt there was value that you felt was not there. That's OK. I fully agree no one should bid at a price that is not of value to them.
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
Edited by Winesteven
01/04/2021 06:34 am
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 Posted 01/03/2021  10:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
No, with "stupid" I mean that people apparently haven't done their homework and are overbidding , as a very similar coin can be found elsewhere for much less.
I seriously wonder if Heritage is flooded with newbies who, due to COVID, have nothing better to do then spend their $600 on coins...
I suppose we will find out soon enough as I believe Heritage will publish its client base numbers early February.
Edited by NumisEd
01/03/2021 10:14 pm
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 Posted 01/03/2021  10:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Winesteven to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Oh, I see!
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!

My collecting "Pride & Joy" is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.PCGS.com/setregistry/ty...edset/213996
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 Posted 01/15/2021  11:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add southsav to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Good question and responses - I am not anywhere near being an expert or experienced as many here. I have passed on quite of few items I sought particularly on EBay.

Looking at seller and bidder history I often sense shill bidding was occurring. Maybe I'm just paranoid.
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 Posted 01/15/2021  1:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I still don't understand this post. If you pay more than what you expect to pay, that's not really winning, that's overpaying.

If the item sells for under your max bid than thats buying at a good price. Losing a bid is good if the cost would be more than what you feel is a fair price.
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 Posted 01/15/2021  1:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Bid your limit and walk away. If you reconsider and raise your limit, bid that and walk away.

Don't chase it. If you don't win you set your limit too low.

It sometimes works to bid in auctions with a lot of the item you want. A couple years ago CNG did an auction with a lot of gold darics. Plenty for everyone at half of what they sell for if there is only one. I remember the same on eBay, with a large collection of rare French 2Fs, and another of low grade California fractionals. It doesn't happen often, but keep your eyes open.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
01/15/2021 1:37 pm
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