Coin Community Family of Web Sites
Like us on Facebook! Subscribe to our Youtube Channel! Check out our Twitter! Check out our Pinterest!
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?


Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some coins?
Our coin forum is completely free! Register Now!

Investing In Rare Coins Gives Mediocre Returns

First page | Next Page | Last 15 Replies
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 42 / Views: 1,687Next Topic
Page: of 3
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20170 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  09:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Coins as an investment is just nuts. While you accumulate them you spend lots of money. You travel to coin shows, coin stores or coin clubs and spend money going there. You spend money on the coins, money on Albums, Folders, plastic tubes, 2x2 flips, coin books and lots more stuff. Add all those expenditures to the approximate value of you collection. Now try to sell that mess for what you THINK it's worth. Guess what? You loose.
just carl
Pillar of the Community
Russian Federation
3451 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  10:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add january1may to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
IIRC, those graphs tend to focus on common dates, and it's with rare (key) dates/mints, and/or higher conditions than just MS-64, where the magic happens. One category that I've heard works pretty well is 19th century branch mint gold in high MS.
(Obviously most of the people who want to invest in coins don't have the kind of money to buy any of those.)

More realistically, for medium-to-long-term investment, you'd need to be able to guess what will be popular in a few decades, which is of course a bit of a soothsayer game.
(For what it's worth, my guess: tin pitis. They're still relatively cheap, but Indonesia is on the rise and in a few decades there will probably be oodles of Indonesian collectors who want to get some.)
Pillar of the Community
United States
927 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  10:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
One category that I've heard works pretty well is 19th century branch mint gold in high MS.


Do you have a specific coin in mind?
Pillar of the Community
United States
2248 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  11:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Here's a specific example Numised. I bought an AU 1891-cc eagle in 1992 for $350. I sold it in 2005 for $900. Most of the appreciation was due to bullion, but there was a branch mint premium on both ends.

I doubt that this holds true for common coins like GSA Morgans. There are far too many of them.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
03/08/2021 11:02 am
Pillar of the Community
United States
1035 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  12:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add machine20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I doubt that this holds true for common coins like GSA Morgans.


A lot of common ones now sell for over $300 on ebay
Pillar of the Community
Russian Federation
3451 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  3:26 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add january1may to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Do you have a specific coin in mind?
No idea: too common/low and it might not be sufficiently high-end to appreciate, too rare/high and there might be so few specimens of that specific date/grade around that you'd have to wait for months or years to even see one come up, and I'm not sufficiently familiar with the market to reliably hit the relatively narrow area between those.

In general, any MS, particularly high MS, gold from Charlotte, Dahlonega, or Carson City should work, with the possible exception of a few particularly common dates, and/or with the possible addition of a few very rare dates from other mints.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2248 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  3:46 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Rusty Goe looked at the price history of high grade MS65 cc Morgans from 1987-2007 machine20. Over that period the common dates 1882/1883/1884 prices depreciated at 4-5% per year, from ca $800 to ca $300. That might have been the floor. Right now there are lots of them on the bay selling for $400....13 years of inflation later.....There is plenty of supply and not much demand.

https://www.carsoncitycoinclub.com/...of_Grade.pdf

For rare dates - 1889cc and 1893cc - there was price appreciation at over 10% per year.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
03/08/2021 4:06 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
927 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  3:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
For the least common dates - 1889cc and 1893cc - there was price appreciation at over 10% per year.


Indeed: https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=7190-64 , https://www.PCGS.com/pricehistory#/?=7222-64

Looks like the price of the 1893 CC MS64 is relatively low at the moment. Time to buy? "Only" $12,500
Edited by NumisEd
03/08/2021 3:59 pm
Pillar of the Community
Learn More...
United States
1918 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  7:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fortcollins to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Like commodities and art collectibles, rare coins are usually considered a hedge against inflation. The posted chart shows that. High inflation in the 1970s and very early 1980s fueled a bull market in collectibles. During most of the last four decades, inflationary pressures have been held in check, and the rare coin market reflects that, as well.

People touting rare coins as a "no brainer" have an agenda. Either they have coins to sell, and want to stir interest to obtain better prices, or they truly believe that current spending patterns will fuel a return of inflation. They may be right, or they may be wrong. Like others touting other investments, they are not neutral observers. Judge for yourself the inflationary and deflationary pressures and risks, and invest accordingly.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1035 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  8:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add machine20 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Rusty Goe looked at the price history of high grade MS65 cc Morgans from 1987-2007 machine20. Over that period the common dates 1882/1883/1884 prices depreciated at 4-5% per year, from ca $800 to ca $300.


The late 80s are before my time but I see also served as a massive bubble in the coin market. It's unfair to start any analysis using prices from that bubble
Pillar of the Community
United States
2248 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  8:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I visualize a "stealth" inflation fortcollins. The CPI isn't based on a fixed basket of goods anymore, but on a constantly degrading basket of goods which reflects steadily lowered standard of living. Congress has revamped it into this, and it results in inflation always being low, to justify borrowing more money. Steak and fresh vegetables are replaced by beans and rice in the basket of goods to make inflation stay at 2%. The formula used to calculate CPI is a well-guarded secret....for good reason....

The calculation I did earlier involving gold and watches is no secret at all, and reflects what I consider a true inflation rate of 6.5% over the last 25 years. I could do the same thing with fish, or even with beans and rice. Any fixed good other than electronics would show the same thing.

Are ANY coins a good investment? My experience is mostly no, unless they are chained to bullion. When bullion moves, it drags collectible bullion coins along with it, up or down. The other exception is true rarity - coins that truly are R7 and R8. I used to buy early San Francisco quarters for 25% of what they sell for today. I don't consider them bargains anymore, but over 25 years they kept up with my 6.5% true inflation rate. They definitely beat stuffing dollar bills in a drawer.

These are only observations. I didn't buy any of my coins to make money. I buy them more for rarity and for being able to touch history. Like sel's avatar. You're touching Alexander and Philip of Macedon. I feel the same way about a daric, or an 1858-S quarter. You're touching history.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
03/08/2021 8:55 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
927 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  8:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The other exception is true rarity - coins that truly are R7 and R8.


R7, R8?
Edited by NumisEd
03/08/2021 8:49 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
2248 Posts
 Posted 03/08/2021  9:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Sheldon scale. R8 1-3 known, R7 4-12 known. PCGS CoinFacts also has a rarity scale, which ranges from 0 to 10 (scarcest).

https://www.PCGS.com/coinfacts/rarity-scale/4805

I consider coins under 100 (whole population, not conditional rarity) as a doable objective for a collector. Sheldon high R4/low R5, or PCGS 8.0. That's where many of those early SF quarters fall....or used to....new ones keep being counted....only my 1861-S still falls in that category.

Collecting in this way has made 1909 SVDB cents less interesting. It's not easy to even find an 1871-S eagle. It's the challenge of the hunt and blind luck.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
03/08/2021 10:43 pm
Valued Member
Learn More...
United States
392 Posts
 Posted 03/09/2021  12:37 am  Show Profile   Check Lancek's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Lancek to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
All this is assuming you purchase your coins at retail and sell at retail. I rarely buy at retail. I'm looking for the bargains. The mis-marked coins. Like the '21 Peace dollar that were listed as Morgans at a local auction. Bought 3 at $17 each, sold for $90 each.

If you live in the US, IMHO your biggest ROI can be on world coins. Nobody in my area has any clue what those are worth. Or even which are silver and which aren't. NGC's world coin price guide has been my biggest friend over the last 5 years. Not always accurate. But beats buying a chest high stack of Krause catalogs. Their data comes from Krause. And at least it give me an idea which key dates to look out for.

Valued Member
United States
107 Posts
 Posted 03/22/2021  06:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MisterT to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In my opinion, if you are investing in coins simply for the return, you had better find another hobby. Even if you could afford to buy nothing but rare date and extraordinary condition, there is always the problem of finding someone else who is interested when you decide to liquidate. Collecting coins is meant to be fun and self rewarding with the pleasure you get from completing a set or series. When I hold an old coin I wonder who had handled it before I. Was that 78cc Morgan used in a poker game with Wild Bill?, was that 43 walking half the last coin a GI spent before meeting his demise in Normandy? Sadly the hobby has been turned on its head with all the Chinese Counterfeits in the marketplace these days. The average collector is never going to get rich by collecting coins but it is the pursuit that is the challenge.
Page: of 3 Previous TopicReplies: 42 / Views: 1,687Next Topic  
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.





Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2021 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use

Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2021 Coin Community Forums
It took 0.73 seconds to rattle this change. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05