Coin Community Family of Web Sites
Like us on Facebook! Subscribe to our Youtube Channel! Check out our Twitter! Check out our Pinterest!
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?


Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some coins?
Our coin forum is completely free! Register Now!

Probability Of Finding A Specific Mint State Quarter In A Roll

 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 12 / Views: 399Next Topic  
Pillar of the Community
United States
1074 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  4:15 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
What do you think the probability is of finding a Mint State Quarter (for example, a 2009 DC, or a 2010-D Yellowstone) in a roll of quarters from a bank?
Pillar of the Community
United States
3907 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  4:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Usually there are two classes of rolls available through a bank--those rolled by customers, and those rolled by commercial coin service providers such as Loomis. In my experience, chances of finding MS-grade quarters are a little higher in commercial service rolls vs. customer wrapped. Of course, chances for MS grades are higher for 'newer' coins, and less for earlier dates. Just this week I came across a nice number of low-to-mid MS grade quarters from 2019-2020, with only one MS example older than 2015. I've been through 100s of roles this year and have found very, very few MS-grade quarters earlier than 2010.

Having said all that, I did find solid mid-MS grade quarters from the early 2000s in a couple customer rolls. Perhaps a collection dump.
Edited by ijn1944
04/16/2021 5:00 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1074 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  5:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
So, the probability of finding a specific pre-2010 quarter in MS condition in a random roll of quarters is basically nil?

(Edited for syntax)
Edited by NumisEd
04/16/2021 5:37 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3907 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  5:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I wouldn't say nil, but the odds aren't high, unless you're fortunate enough to come cross customer-wrapped rolls where someone has cleaned out a quarter stash. If you have a need to fill some holes with high-grade pre-2010 quarters, and you'd prefer to do that soon, then ebay or a coin shop may be the answer.
Bedrock of the Community
Learn More...
United States
56734 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  6:43 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Really, they're so inexpensive, why not just buy them?
Pillar of the Community
United States
1074 Posts
 Posted 04/16/2021  6:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Yeah, I guess it is easier and simpler to just buy the ones you like.
Valued Member
United States
128 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2021  07:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jonnin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I can't give odds but I will argue that there is a third set of rolls. Once in a while you get a roll that was never opened by the bank from the mint, full of mint state coins. Unfortunately, these are generally the same date and mint on every single coin in the roll. With the 'coin shortage' some banks have done a little deeper into their vaults too -- it seems most of them operate on a last in, first out / put on top, take from the top type model so if they go deeper they hit stuff that has not been touched in (who knows how long).
Pillar of the Community
United States
1429 Posts
 Posted 04/17/2021  09:06 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Big-Kingdom to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Considering yesterday I found a 1999P Delaware quarter in mint state I'd say chances are pretty good. It's really a volume game though, the more you search the chances go up.
It was better than any example I'd ever found including the one I had in the dansco that I put there in 1999.

Just because it came out of a circulated type roll of coins doesn't mean it's AU or lower. It's all about the luster and marks on it. How it was aquired dosent really matter.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
17329 Posts
 Posted 04/19/2021  09:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
He didn't say anything about volume he said a random roll. The problem comes from insisting on a specific date and mint from a random roll and insisting it be MS.

Lets just try a very special "magical" case Say your rolls only contain the first 2 years of State Quarters, and say that 10% of the specific date you select, say a 1999P DE, are still MS. There were over 16 BILLION State Quarters in the first two years, that's 402,530.000 rolls 10% of the 1999P DE quarters is 37.3 million so with random distribution you would expect to find 1 out of every 11 rolls or about a 9% chance out of any randomly selected roll THAT ONLY CONTAINS THE FIRST TWO YEARS OF State Quarters. Out of a random roll that could contain all the clad quarters and your probability goes way down. Make our "magical" sample of rolls tust the first three years of State Quarters and it drops to a 7.4% chance. So out of a random roll from the entire 56 years of quarters the chance is going to be MUCH MUCH worse
Gary Schmidt
Pillar of the Community
United States
1074 Posts
 Posted 04/19/2021  9:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Ergo: Worse than a needle in a haystack.
Edited by NumisEd
04/19/2021 10:11 pm
Bedrock of the Community
United States
17329 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2021  1:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If you are only selecting ONE roll then yes. That's where looking at a LARGE number of rolls comes in. The more rolls you search the better your chances become.
Gary Schmidt
Pillar of the Community
United States
1074 Posts
 Posted 04/20/2021  5:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anyhow, I have decided to just buy the quarters I like instead of searching endless amounts of rolls in the hope of finding "The One".
Moderator
Learn More...
United States
99075 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  10:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Anyhow, I have decided to just buy the quarters I like instead of searching endless amounts of rolls in the hope of finding "The One".
No shame in that. I bought all my ATB Quarters from the Mint, although after eleven years they seem to be ubiquitous in (my wife's) change.
  Previous TopicReplies: 12 / Views: 399Next Topic  
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.





Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2021 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use

Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2021 Coin Community Forums
It took 0.33 seconds to rattle this change. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05
New