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Ebay Vs NGC Pricing Guide Vs Heritage Auction

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New Member

United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  06:44 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
So maybe someone can explain something to me. If I look at a key date...let's say a 1921 Peace dollar in a 64....You can find it on eBay for , let's say 1200-1400.....This is pretty consistent with NGC pricing guide. But, if you look at the final sales on Heritage Auction, there is a disconnect. In this example, I looked at all sales over the last 3 years for this coin and this grade ( the sample size was 50) and the median sales price was around $650 dollars. I looked at a couple other coins and key dates and the pattern seems to be the same. This raises two questions in my mind. 1) why is NGC pricing guide so far off from HA actual results. and 2) why would anyone buy a decent coin off eBay ? Is there something I am not accounting for ?
Bedrock of the Community
United States
20201 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  08:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add just carl to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
2) why would anyone buy a decent coin off eBay

It's been a mystery to me too. I never have trusted ebay since my kid told me how him and his friends use it to get rid of junk.
just carl
Pillar of the Community
United States
2268 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  08:10 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add thq to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For nice (and much rarer) coins I've looked at on eBay lately, prices are 10-20% above PCGS. Seller's market maybe, since certain categories have dried up, at least in circulated grades.

just carl is right about the junk, and not just the counterfeits. eBay is a great place to find slabbed details coins priced the same or higher than straight grade.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq
04/21/2021 08:15 am
Pillar of the Community
United States
3396 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  08:14 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
eBay is higher priced than greysheet and most other places but it's easy to use, hence they get the people that value convenience over savings.
New Member
United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  08:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
one can avoid the junk by getting a slabbed coin off ebay, but the HA realized prices seem to be SO much lower than eBay or NGC.....I've sent a not off to NGC asking why their price guide is so much higher than HA realized prices.
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United States
2187 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  08:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trdhrdr007 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Are you comparing apples to oranges? Unless you kept records sales data from eBay is the last 90 days (1 year if you have access to Terapeak) whereas Heritage sales are 3 years. I don't have any hard data but have heard the price of 1921 Peace dollars has increased recently due to release of 2021 Peace dollars.
New Member
United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  09:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I don't have eBay sales data...I have looked at what people are trying to sell the 64 grade Peace dollar on ebay vs the median sale on HA...As I recall, out of about 50 coins sold on HA, only 4 or 5 were for over $1000, with the mean at around 650. I also looked at Washington quarters - 1932-D and S and noted similar results....The median realized price on Heritage being SO much lower. Now sure, Ebay sellers have to load up for Ebay's and Paypal's cut ( about 13%), and seller profit ---15% ?....

I picked three years ( May 2018- April 2021 ) because the pandemic probably messed up a lot of the supply and demand last year.... so now, with respect to a 1921 Peace dollar, grade 64, I cant see paying anywhere near what NGC suggests...but I think my question is broader....

Since I have brought up this coin, I would be curious to hear from a dealer what they would pay for a nice choice 64 1921 Peace coin
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United States
5231 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  09:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kanga to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Do the Heritage results include the buyer's fee?
That's a big chunk of money.
Around 20% of the winning bid if I recall correctly.
Describe it as if there were no picture.
Picture it as if there were no description.
Pillar of the Community
United States
602 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  09:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JasonKflo to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I buy from both but depends and have found good deals on both but generally speaking I feel more confident I got a good deal on Heritage or Great Collections
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2943 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  10:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The 1921 Peace dollar has currently a price abnormality because of the recent sky rocket in price for the 1921 Peace dollar. There is a lot of hype on the reissue of the 2021 Peace dollar and Morgan. Forget about looking at the last 3 years of auction pricing for the 1921 Peace dollar as it means nothing. If you want a 1921 Peace dollar MS64 with a decent strike in the current market, you are going to pay $1200 to $1400. NGC has updated their price guide to reflect the current market. Heritage sold a MS64 1921 Peace dollar on 3/17/21 for $1380 that reflect current pricing. eBay sold is in the same ballpark for current pricing of the 1921.
Edited by Slider23
04/21/2021 10:17 am
New Member
United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  10:41 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The Peace dollar was just an example of what I think may be a pattern ...The 1932 D quarter in 63 is 1450 on NGC price guide but the median sale price on HA was 1050 and in 64, NGC has it at 2000 where the median price is 1500..admittedly, sales on HA are not many ( 4 and 6 respectively).....Having never bought on HA, I don't know if there are additional costs as another poster asked....I do plan to do more thorough analysis on several key dates

As an aside I do see the sale of the Peace dollar at 1380, as you describe. But do you also see the sales of 960,990, and 972 all in March 2021 as well ?
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
18441 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  10:56 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Dealers go to HA to buy high end inventory, or are looking for a specific coin that they know one of their customers may be looking for.
Since a profit has to be made on a re-sale, the buy-in price with buyer's premium has to be low enough. Also may be the start of a provenance from a reputable company, or the continuation of a provenance. That can make a Heritage coin seem cheap, if the buy-in price is right.

I like to compete with the dealers at public auctions because they know what they are doing, price wise. Serious research work before the pre auction view days is essential. If un slabbed, which I prefer, you have to trust your own grading skills. I usually submit a single price written proxy bid, to avoid an auction room war. Winning bid one bid step higher than 2nd highest bid, so there is the possibility of getting a coin at a lower price than my written bid.

eBay 'buy it now' prices are an ambit guide price, and are more usually based on the highest dealer retail price catalog value.
Not able to carefully inspect the item before making a bid. As such, slabbed is essential, but I can't dismiss the possibility of fake slabs.
There are CCF members that have far better skills than I, when it comes to addressing the problems of eBay.
New Member
United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  11:07 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think my initial hypothesis is that NGC price guide is overstated and that Ebay pricing follows (generally) NGC pricing....and that one would be much wiser to buy off auctions (wholesale?)....not as a collector but as an investor seeking positive ROI by flipping the coin
New Member
United States
49 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  11:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add shug23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
and as a collector as well, I suppose...but if looking for a specific coin, it may not be available when you want it
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United States
695 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  11:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Heymikep to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When you looked at EBay did you look at sold coins or coins for sale? There is a big difference.
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United States
2943 Posts
 Posted 04/21/2021  12:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
As an aside I do see the sale of the Peace dollar at 1380, as you describe. But do you also see the sales of 960,990, and 972 all in March 2021 as well ?


The ones that sold in the $900 range had some issues like poor strike, finger prints, low luster, excessive marks for grade. If these same coins went back on the marked today, they would most likely be in the $1100 to $1200 range because there has been another price jump in the last month for the 1921 Peace dollar.


Quote:
I think my initial hypothesis is that NGC price guide is overstated and that Ebay pricing follows (generally) NGC pricing....and that one would be much wiser to buy off auctions (wholesale?)....not as a collector but as an investor seeking positive ROI by flipping the coin


NGC and PCGS are simply retail price guides, and you are correct they are overstated. A lot of eBay BIN pricing does follow the TPG price guides, but there are still good buys on eBay is you are selective for price and quality. Buying quality coins at a fair price is where you find them: eBay, coin show, online dealer, LCS, Heritage, GC, etc.

Buying at Heritage Auction can have it own pit falls. A lot of sellers will put their market desirable coins up for auction at Heritage and it can create a bidding war. Some times you can get a better price on a market desirable coin from a dealer because you are not in a bidding war. I tried the flipping game of buying at Heritage and selling on eBay. I could sell the coins on eBay for more than I paid for it, but the only ones making money was Heritage and eBay.

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