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What If We Ignored Grading Altogether?

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Pillar of the Community
Topic Starter
Canada
999 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2023  09:32 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I follow the Australian dealers Coinworks. Most of what they post about appears to be ungraded. It's usually extremely high end and quite gorgeous as well.

https://coinworks.com.au
Pillar of the Community
United States
1007 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2023  4:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I've never bought a coin online, so here's my 1 cents instead of two.

If the grading website would furnish notes and comments from the paid TPG, then it would be more useful. They are, after all, a professional who is holding the coin in hand. Maybe they can see things that you can't, given the lighting conditions and equipment in their lab. There is tremendous variation in digital photography, and now algorithms can provide extremely realistic and undetectable enhancement. I'm pretty sure, for example, that I could splice the full steps onto a Jefferson nickel without that being detectable in an image. AI is only going to make that harder to detect in the future.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
12994 Posts
 Posted 05/28/2023  4:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ijn1944 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As long as 'free thinking' people are involved in numismatics, there will be grading--in one form or another.
New Member
United States
20 Posts
 Posted 08/07/2023  8:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LandonM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm a Sheldon Scale skeptic and will gladly have that conversation.

Also a TPG skeptic in general and have personally proven (for fun and profit) how erratic some of their grading standards can be, especially on foreign issues where they're unlikely to have any legit specialists expertise in the grading room.

That being said: they were invented for a reason, continue to exist for a reason and in the era of extremely high-quality fakes available for sale on AliExpress, they now have perhaps the single most important role to play in numismatics today- authenticators.

We can argue all day if the difference between a 62 and a 63 is meaningful enough to be credible (especially when there are huge price jumps for what amounts to voo-doo perception that in many cases, the people issuing the grade can't even duplicate themselves with the same coin, busted out and submitted at a later date) but when it comes to fakes, they have a huge responsibility that the fulfil pretty darn well.

Always buy the coin, not the slab but unslabbed coins in the current year, especially key dates, are just far too risky.
Edited by LandonM
08/07/2023 8:11 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3071 Posts
 Posted 08/07/2023  8:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are auction houses that routinely sell raw coins. Many of these are located in Europe.
Problem is, the photos are often not of a high enough and honest quality to make an informed purchase decision. That's why I stopped buying higher value silver coins from Europe. You won't believe how many of these coins have been cleaned which the photos "miraculously" don't show.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3401 Posts
 Posted 08/07/2023  11:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add kbbpll to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The original Sheldon scale was based on his theory that the best US Large Cent was worth 70 times what the worst one was worth. So the whole thing was bogus to begin with and I'm not sure why we still use it.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1007 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2023  12:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For the same reason we use most other systems—that's the way it was done in the past, so we will keep doing it.

The 70 point scale does an okay job of imposing some order on a subjective topic. It does seem that the process of arriving at the grade is somewhat variable, even by TPG companies. There are a lot of bits and parts grafted onto the system. If I had one complaint overall, it's that in the process of reducing the knowledge into a single point of information, that knowledge isn't effectively transferred, including the subjective parts.

Like all systems, anyone who wants to replace it has to propose a superior one. A better question would be, what do you want from grading that it doesn't already supply?
New Member
United States
20 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2023  4:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LandonM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
AI grading.
Feed the past (pushing) 40 years of human graded images into s decent machine learning protocol and do it that way. We should have enough data by now, meticulously tagged with subjective grades by expert graders, for Bayesian magic to do its thing.

Its pointless to argue Sheldon since its not going anywhere, but based on personal experience, the original Sheldon ranges (not the adapted version) are a pretty good way to eliminate most arguments- you can find repeatable consensus on what's a G versus a VG, a F versus a VG, etc.

Where you get into voo-doo is when the argument becomes about what's a 62 and what's a 63 and the price difference at stake is thousands (or tens of thousands) of dollars. Or when a 65 makes that 66...
Edited by LandonM
08/08/2023 4:51 pm
New Member
United States
20 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2023  4:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LandonM to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There are auction houses that routinely sell raw coins. Many of these are located in Europe.
Problem is, the photos are often not of a high enough and honest quality to make an informed purchase decision. That's why I stopped buying higher value silver coins from Europe. You won't believe how many of these coins have been cleaned which the photos "miraculously" don't show.


Another real problem with ungraded coins is that its just too easy to photoshop out minor defects, enhance lighting and even coloration digitally, that anyone with basic photoshop skills can deliver a picture and a coin that are two different things. My own first experience with this was back in 2002, via an eBay purchase, when online selling was all a bit newer than it is today and Photoshop skills were less common. Purchased a nice looking, raw coin that had a huge scratch edited out of the picture. The seller took it back and insisted it was just a matter of 'not getting the picture in the right light..." but lesson learned.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1007 Posts
 Posted 08/08/2023  8:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Brandmeister to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Where you get into voo-doo is when the argument becomes about what's a 62 and what's a 63 and the price difference at stake is thousands (or tens of thousands) of dollars. Or when a 65 makes that 66...

Yes, as a relative outsider I tend to agree. The visual differences in the tiny increments are absurdly subjective. I have often wondered if auction results bear out the idea that people use the grade as an approximate guide or pre-filter, and then just make their own determination. There are plenty of examples where slightly lower coins sell for higher, or vice versa.
Pillar of the Community
Topic Starter
Canada
999 Posts
 Posted 08/15/2023  5:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@Brandmeister - I think it varies from person to person. When I first got serious about this (about 5 years ago after many years of dabbling) I was overly impressed by Sheldon numbers and PCGS holders. I always look at these things now but I spend most of my time looking at the actual coin and, to whatever extent possible from photographs or catalogues, try to grade it myself.
Valued Member
United States
84 Posts
 Posted 09/29/2023  11:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Fresh Find to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well the fact is Sheldon scale or not it's going to be somebody's opinion anyway. Because no two people grading even for the same company are going to grade exactly the same. Take eye appeal for example that sought after plus sign. There's a difference of hundreds if not thousands of dollars for that half a point. Whereas if Joe schmoe called in sick for work and lazy Larry did the grading he may not think it deserves a plus. So now you're out the top pop because Joe schmo drank too much the night before.. One of the big things that I don't understand is toning I see all kinds of mint state coins with toning and from my understanding if there's any discoloration it shouldn't get the MS grade. Which I do understand the conflict there cuz there's some beautiful toned coins I'm just going off of what I believe the Sheldon scale says that could be wrong..
New Member
Canada
33 Posts
 Posted 10/01/2023  7:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Goofball to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In my perspective, grading is inherently subjective. How many of you have sought a second opinion from a trusted friend or associate, even when you were confident in your own grading? Imagine you're at a coin show, considering a significant purchase, and a friend who works at ICCS/NGC/PCGS is right there with you. Wouldn't you naturally ask for their opinion on the coin? I certainly would.

Now, let's take the scenario online. If that same friend had examined the coin in person, under ideal conditions, wouldn't you prefer their input over relying solely on photographs?

Likewise, when it comes to population reports and "top pops," how much would it influence your judgment if your knowledgeable friend exclaimed, "It's the finest I've ever seen," or conversely, "I've come across hundreds that are in higher grades."

In the world of grading, not only do we form our own assessments, but we also become attuned to the idiosyncrasies of grading companies and those of our friends. This helps us gauge how our personal opinions align or deviate from the established grading standards and the reliability of our friends' assessments.
Bedrock of the Community
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United States
81585 Posts
 Posted 10/01/2023  7:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Grading may be subjective, but in today's world, the TPG photo and quality rating rules the selling price in the end. Simple and tidy.
Pillar of the Community
Topic Starter
Canada
999 Posts
 Posted 10/01/2023  8:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@coinfrog - I think you're likely right most of the time. I sold some material through one of the Canadian auction houses recently (first time doing so) and asked the guy whether he thought grading made a difference. His words "almost everyone buys the holder".
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