Gut Feeling For Silver.

https://goccf.com/t/247670&whichpage=43

https://www.coincommunity.com/forum...ic_id=478916

This is dated 2024, but it underscores the point that silver is well below any inflation-adjusted high, though I think we should ignore that highest point from 1980 because it was a result of market manipulation. Maybe the $80 is a more credible number? Still, it's well off its early 21st century high even if it hits $50 this year. Ah, well, time will tell.

Looking at the price chart
I notice that each build up took 3 or 4 years.
then a crash.

At this time, a speculator should become increasingly circumspect when accumulating more bullion.
There will come a time when extra purchases must stop, or big losses will be incurred.
Judgement remains in the hands of the speculator.

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For me, none of this matters.
I am a numistmatist coin collector, and so I just ignore the silver price, and thus just sail right through the silver price spikes and troughs.

I have collection of about 7 kilos of numismatic silver, formed over a period of about 50 years. My attitude is similar to that of a museum curator, where the numismatic value and the silver value is of only little interest.

About $32 oz when I started this thread and it looks like my gut feeling was right. Silver has since gone up to over $47.50 and now sits at $46.26 "tho not for long". For a 5 month spread thats not a bad investment grade buy, a $15 oz profit. Especially considering the oz's weight some guys here buy.

So if one bought 1,000 oz when I had that gut feeling, which many did I'm sure, right now you'd be sitting on a $15,000 pure profit. For gold, and you remember how we were complaining about $3,200+ gold, you'd be sitting on a profit of $816 per coin. Which BTW I did, and for more profit then that, coming out to $10,000 or there abouts overall profit, and I know there were guys here who bought a hell of a lot more gold and made a hell of a lot more profit then I.

So for the average stacker, one who stacks roughly the same weight/profit for silver and they do gold when the going is good, for the 5 mos on this year since Apr/May to now I'd bet most made roughly $10 k to $20 K, at least. Pure profit.

I know I bought a crap load of silver last winter/spring. Much of it easy to sell coinage, junk, and 10 oz bars. Nor do I think silver is near to be done yet. I'm still bulllish for 2025 and 2026 and its really not easy with the numismatics I have to put on hold in order to buy weight of the white metal. I just bought 12 ASE's for $45.50 each that now, a few days later, cant be touched for under $49.26 each. A $50 profit in a few days, thank you very much.

So making $20 K to $40 K profit on gold/silver is nothing to sneeze at. Were I Michael Jordan I'd have a numismatic collection that could choke an elephant. However the reality is I'm just some poor schlub retiree thats making a few bucks on the metals market and consider $40 K a good profit.

And for that matter quality numismatics are going for good prices too. I recently just couldn't pass up a VF, slabbed, seated $1 Liberty for $429 when it was easily, EASILY, worth $200 to $250 more.

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I will add one extra layer. Recently, I was at a coin shop when another large coin shop in town called hoping to sell a few hundred Buffalo rounds at 95% to the shop. They laughed and told them 91% just like any other customer. The other shop sent someone over anyway and I am not sure if they made a deal or not, but I heard through the grapevine that so many people were unloading at these high levels that the other shop was having cash flow issues to where they needed to unload immediately (versus waiting for customers to buy or sending the coins to a wholesaler and waiting to get paid).

This current reality just "feels" different. The difference is, or course, Industrial.

Even forgetting all the other Industrial uses our grandkids will live in a world where EV's and Hybrids rule the roads. Theres just no question EV's are the future and the technology needed to catch up to demand. https://chargedevs.com/newswire/sam...ate-battery/

And so much new and advanced technology uses a lot of silver with humanity entering an era of high tech. Like a snowball rolling downhill the exponential rate of technical enhancement and innovation is powering an entirely new chapter in silver usage. One thats hard to predict as new technologies emerge faster and faster, other then in fact it will indeed happen.

So I can't say where the end game goes. Yes there is the possibility of economic implosion but technology development appears to be a train that just wont derail. Its hard to predict a final high price. Indeed its hard to predict there will even be one, but I know this, we aren't there yet.

All the data points of the white metal indicate, growth, increase in usage, and price increases. Heck the market is flush right now and still prices are rising.

All my life there has been plenty of silver. Just looking at that long term chart, the vast majority of the time, it is pretty boring punctuated only by brief chaos when COMEX silver tags along a big gold rally. 30% of annual silver production is actual a by product while digging up more important stuff. I have a sterling silver set I bought long ago plus a bunch of scrap that I am going to sell but haven't figured out the best way yet.