Coin Community Family of Web Sites
Coin Community Forum
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?

Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some coins?
Our coin forum is completely free! Register Now!

Gold below $1500?

Next Page    
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous Topic Topic Next Topic
Page: of 3
Pillar of the Community
United States
2529 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  2:46 pm Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add Tim Stroud to your friends list Get a Link to this Message

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1146..._ven=RSSFeed

I guess we will have to wait and see.

Pay your taxes! 12 million illegal immigrants are depending on it.

"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have."
Thomas Jefferson

Oldest Circulation Find ----- 1897S Barber quarter
Oldest Detector Find -------- 1803 Large cent


Valued Member
United States
364 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  4:40 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add TenSense to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gold will dip in the near term.

In order for it to be a poor investment in the long term, all that has to happen is this:

1) All major governments of the world move away from debt-financed economies and budgets.
2) All politicians, globally, decide on austerity measures and refrain from ever kicking the ball down the court, ever again.
3) All central banks immediately and forever cease debt-financed fiat currency spending.

If these three conditions are met, gold will become a poor insurance policy.
Edited by TenSense
03/24/2012 4:41 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  4:49 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's pretty clear that none of those 3 conditions will be met, let alone all of them.

Gold often shows a little weakness when the dollar shows some strength. In most cases, this is temporary and gold then resumes moving higher. Whether or not this same pattern will recur is anyone's guess but it does seem to have reasonably good odds on its side.

We need to ask ourselves, "What is it that the Fed and the government now doing that they were not doing before that will strengthen the US dollar?". From what I have seen in the past several years, the answer to this is... nothing. There has been a program of dollar weakening and not strengthening. Those in power may talk about strengthening the US dollar but their actions do not support those claims.

The death of gold as an investment is often "exaggerated" whenever even a little weakness is shown. Most of this talk comes not from the people who really know gold and precious metals but from those who do not. Typically, these would be the stock guys who dislike gold because it takes money and profits from their control instead of remaining in stock accounts where they can profit from it.
Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  5:19 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add silvercoinrn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A local gold dealer told me that gold dipps every spring into summer
Pillar of the Community
United States
1426 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  7:19 pm  Show Profile Check traevin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
With a weaker dollar, coupled with low interest rates, it's much easier for the US to pay its creditors. Also, our exports look far more palatable with a dollar in the doldrums. So, from a political standpoint, our leaders have very little incentive to strengthen the dollar. IIRC, Reagan was the last US president to do so. I still remember when CDs paid 10% interest. I haven't bothered to look into the current rates in years. Not much point.
If you haven't noticed by now, I don't proofread veery well and I apollogize profusely. (;>D
Edited by traevin
03/24/2012 7:20 pm
Valued Member
United States
364 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  8:05 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add TenSense to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Amen, Ed. I read a rather ridiculous article by Warren Buffet lately where he was writing off investment in gold as a product of fear. Says there's no point since stocks always do better over the long term.

Someone needs to ask that genius what currency his stocks are valued in, and if he's ever heard of Germany, round about 1927 or so.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1426 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  8:18 pm  Show Profile Check traevin's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I tend to avoid investment debates with the Oracle of Omaha ;)
If you haven't noticed by now, I don't proofread veery well and I apollogize profusely. (;>D
Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  8:52 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If gold bottomed out at 1400 or LESS, and I was lucky enough to sell all my silver holdings at ONE time when an IF silver peaks out HIGH this year, then I would have to strongly consider putting all that money back into some gold....

Or like a friend of mine does, he could care less about pretty silver, as he buys the cheapest junk silver rounds he can find. An if he gets like fifty oz. at one time, he records that info (purchase price total)on the bag its in an tosses it to back of safe. When silver hits the highs he waits for, he sells it all. Waits a bit, buys back into silver, often the same bars or coins he just sold. Same amount, then takes the profit from it all an buys gold....

Then like he said, takes a while, a bit tedious, but that say 1 oz. gold piece he then puts in safe, PURE PROFIT. Like gold from thin air, lol. I like that system, pretty clever....
Edited by Silverhawk74
03/24/2012 8:53 pm
Pillar of the Community
Australia
8729 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  9:46 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
For gold to be a poor investment for me, it would have to dip below about $600.
I haven't bought gold for some years.
Pillar of the Community
United States
705 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  10:08 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
For gold to be a poor investment for me, it would have to dip below about $600.


Sounds like a very enviable cost basis you've got on your Au stack! Since I'm late getting into PMs, that's a buying opportunity I can only dream of.
Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts
 Posted 03/24/2012  11:51 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add silvercoinrn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If love for a dip that low. Was offered one ounce today for 1700
Valued Member
United States
329 Posts
 Posted 03/25/2012  12:04 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add BuffaloBonehead to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What definition are we using for "poor investment?" Gold has outpaced the vast majority of other investments over the past 10ish years which has made it a "good investment" in retrospect. The sole requirement for a good investment shouldn't just be price increase even if the price outpaces inflation (which, by some of the gold bugs' arguments is impossible as gold only reflects inflation by definition.

For something to be a "good" investment it should do more than just outpace inflation. It should increase in an amount which outpaces other investment vehicles that one is likely to own. Over the past 10 years, Apple has been a much better investment than gold. Over the same time period there have been investments in between the rise of gold and Apple. There have also been investments which didn't keep pace with inflation and ones which decreased in value.

I would argue that over the past 10 years, gold was a good investment, and that over the next 10 years gold will be at least an acceptable investment, but will it outpace a group of well selected stocks? It depends on how you do your homework, but for me it is only a piece of the puzzle. I'll take the appreciation of gold as a "safe" bet along with some of my other numismatic pursuits as a hobby-investment which will hopefully payoff when the time is right.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 03/26/2012  8:28 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One interesting point here is that Warren Buffet's father was a congressman who wrote articles and gave speeches that were very complimentary of gold and its ownership. He equated sound money with personal liberty. In my view, he was right to do so. Warren may be one of the great investors of all time but I don't much care for his politics.
Pillar of the Community
Australia
8729 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2012  01:36 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Until gold drops below $600 again, I haven't got a buying opportunity.
That won't happen soon.
I might as well sit on an acorn and wait for it to grow, to climb the tree again!
Valued Member
Learn More...
United States
122 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2012  5:07 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Big-byte to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
A nearby PM and coin dealer told me that from 1981 to 2000, certain mining interests worked to keep the price of gold around $200-$300 per ounce. I never got the reason that they did that, nor the reason that they gave up on it and allowed the price to surge twelve years ago. Does anyone else know about this? He also told me that, if the US were to return to the gold standard for currency, the govt. would then confiscate all gold holdings by private citizens, as it did back in the 1930's. Would that be necessary and, if so, why?
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 03/27/2012  5:49 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
A nearby PM and coin dealer told me that from 1981 to 2000, certain mining interests worked to keep the price of gold around $200-$300 per ounce. I never got the reason that they did that, nor the reason that they gave up on it and allowed the price to surge twelve years ago.

I haven't heard a peep about anything like this. It seems very contrary to mining company interests, IMO. Mining is not a cheap activity in most places. They need cash and lots of it to fund their operations. Deliberately causing their earnings to be low seems not only foolish but dangerous to their business.

What I have heard, however, is that the big bullion banks, aka The Cartel, takes large short positions in gold and silver and that if the price then dips, they can make a lot of money from that price dip. They can also go long then and sell when the price gets to a nice place for shorting. If true, they are milking this cow for all she is worth, profiting greatly on both ends of the price swings. This makes a lot more sense to me than having the miners involved in price manipulations.


Quote:
He also told me that, if the US were to return to the gold standard for currency, the govt. would then confiscate all gold holdings by private citizens, as it did back in the 1930's. Would that be necessary and, if so, why?

I've read a lot of articles on the web that take both sides of this issue. The BIG difference between then and now is that gold coins were circulated as money back then but they are not now. Because of this, gold ownership was common then but not now. The number of Americans who own gold coins is very small as a percentage of our population. Because of this, there would not be a lot of gold out there to be stolen, er, confiscated. Also, there were exceptions to this executive order for gold jewelry, gold collectible coins, and gold used in various industries.

The gold confiscation of 1933 was primarily aimed at the banks because that was where most of the gold was located. The reason for the confiscation was that the government economists believed that the depression would not end until money was freely circulated. A lot of people were holding their gold and not spending it, so it was not circulating as they wanted it to do. Most people considered their few gold coins as money of last resort, perhaps the last thing standing between them and starvation, and held onto them as long as they could. Times were hard and they never knew when they would have more gold.

While the government could do this again, it seems unlikely in view of the small amount of gold held by citizens and the effort that the government would have to go through to gather it up. Angering voters with a small issue like this is not usually done. Anyone who doesn't have any gold coins, bars, or rounds is unlikely to care about this issue, unlike most of us on here.
Page: of 3 Previous Topic Topic Next Topic  
Next Page    
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
SELECTED Modern WORLD Coins with LOW MintageCoins Commemorating the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic GamesCoinSniper.com is the numismatic penny auction.American Silver Eagles only $2.49 over Spot!SWCoins - We Love Coins
Coin Community Member eBay Sales - Only CCF Members Included Here
Ending Soon   Newly Listed   Lowest Price   Highest Price  
Certified Coins   Certified VAMs   Certified Errors  
New Forum Topics Recently Active Forum Topics




Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2014 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use
Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2014 Coin Community Forums Go To Top Of Page
It took 3.12 seconds to rattle this change. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05