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How many obsolete coins are left?

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mycrob
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Posted 04/16/2008  1:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add mycrob to your friends list  Get a Link to this Message

I would love to know whether there is any information on approximately how many, say Indian cents and Buffalo nickels, are still around. I think more than 3 billion Indian cents were minted, but of this, you'd have to think some are lost forever, some were mutilated and removed by the US Mint (how often does that occur, as I see mutilated modern coins all the time in circulation still). There is also a lot of discussion about silver coins being melted in the 1980s. Very, very few of these obsolete coins are still in circulated coinage- probably 1 Buffalo nickel per every several $100 in nickels. Maybe 1 Indian cent per every $1000 in Lincoln cents. Almost never see a Mercury dime in circulation. So I would think "still in circulation" would account for a very small fraction of the surviving obsolete coins

Are there any data on what % of the total obsolete coins survive to this day? The obsolete coins are in the hands of dealers and private collectors.

I'm just thinking about this issue and wondering whether such information if it is available could be helpful in understanding where there might be some coin types that are actually much rarer than appreciated.
Collect all US coins, especially Indian cents and Buffalo nickels
Edited by mycrob - 12/11/2008 12:49 pm
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hunter20ga
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Posted 04/16/2008  2:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hunter20ga to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

I've read estimates for different series and/or specific dates in a variety of places. If you do an online search, I'm sure you'll find information. Judging the accuracy of the information is a bit tricky, but it will give you at least a ballpark figure. (Look for survivorship of various series...)

By and large, if memory serves me well at all, for obsolete coinsof the 1800's, you can pretty well bet that 90% of the original mintage has been lost, melted, or otherwise destroyed. For some series and dates, survivorship is better, for others it worse.
Hunter
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eaglefoot
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Posted 04/16/2008  3:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eaglefoot to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Mycrob.............



Good topic !........I've wondered that too.......it'd be great to see some hard data or good theories on this. Which for coin collectors of ANY degree ........it's all about the mintage numbers of course....but...further and beyond that.....how many are REALLY out there "now" ??....That should have everyone's interest!...
Coin collecting isn't always just about the money !

Eaglefoot
Edited by eaglefoot - 04/16/2008 3:49 pm
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mycrob
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Posted 04/16/2008  4:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycrob to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Hunter, would you include that 90% figure for late 1800 Indian cents? I do know that when I buy bulk Indian cents, I keep track of every date and I find the about 60% of the coins are 1900-07. Only about 15% are 1880-1889, yet 1883, 1887 and 1889 are considered commons. Those three dates account for most of the 1880-89 coins I see. 1885 and 86 are very very hard to come by, but I don't know if its because they've been picked clean by previous searchers or if these are truly hard due to lower mintages.

Keep the comments coming. I'd love to learn more about this topic!
Collect all US coins, especially Indian cents and Buffalo nickels
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Prethen
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Posted 04/16/2008  4:34 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

As you get later into the 19th century and 20th century, I'm guessing a larger percentage will survive. I've read some very interesting posts on other forums on this and the guesses for most 19th century type material is in the 5% range.
Specializing in 2-3-20 cent pieces and 19th Century Proofs
Did someone mention 3CN?
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coppernickeldaddy
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Posted 04/16/2008  6:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coppernickeldaddy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

All that I can add to this is my nickel research; I have found 14 Buffalo Nickels in 5000 rolls. About 1 per every 375 rolls or so. Very tough to find!
Something tells me I'm into something good - Herman's Hermits
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onejinx
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Posted 04/16/2008  7:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add onejinx to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

The same can be said about modern proof sets. With collectors/dealers/flippers breaking up proofs sets and getting coins graded, some years there are low numbers of sets still intact. I'll use for example the 1999 Silver proof set had a mintage of 804,600. I don't know exactly how many sets have been cracked open, but I would guess at least half of them have been, maybe more.

I'm sure someone could check population reports from the TPG's but that wouldn't be totally accurate due to resubmissions of the same coins.

So in a way there is no way to give an exact total of remaining coins in a particular series. Unless only a handful are known to exist.
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1sikevo
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Posted 04/17/2008  11:08 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1sikevo to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Are obsolete currency still legal tender ?
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Prethen
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Posted 04/17/2008  11:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

ALL of it is legal tender as of the Act of 1965.
Specializing in 2-3-20 cent pieces and 19th Century Proofs
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1sikevo
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Posted 04/17/2008  11:27 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1sikevo to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Although I don't forsee someone dropping a gold half eagle at a drive-thru for a burger and fries...
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Edited by 1sikevo - 04/17/2008 11:28 am
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m9frank
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Posted 04/17/2008  8:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add m9frank to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Great topic!

How many of each type are hoarded?
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Prethen
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Posted 04/17/2008  9:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Key dates tend to be hoarded quite a bit which sort of skews their real availability figures although they're off the market (not really available...yet).
Specializing in 2-3-20 cent pieces and 19th Century Proofs
Did someone mention 3CN?
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guildar
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Posted 04/17/2008  9:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add guildar to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

"How many of each type are hoarded?"

Good question. One day my sister-in-law (age 80) showed me her 2 gallon bucket of 'silver' pennies. A few were rusted. No, I didn't tell her.
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Sap
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Posted 04/18/2008  01:22 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Sap to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Don't forget that a proportion of the coins "saved" by the collectors of one generation will end up being spent by the non-collectors of the next generation, and find their way back into circulation. It's difficult for us to imagine, I know, but there are lots of people who simply can't conceive of the idea that a 5 cent coin could be worth anything more than 5 cents.

I would say that effectively all of the "obsolete coins" you do find in circulation have been liberated from hoards and collections no longer wanted, rather than having actually been in circulation all this time.

Looking at the long-term big picture: it's estimated that less than 0.1 percent of ancient coins (from, say, ancient Rome) have survived to the present day, and only a fraction of those have actually been found - most are still "lost but findable", buried someplace awaiting discovery.
It's easy to be a saint in paradise. - Captain Sisko, "Star Trek"
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toniblab
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Posted 04/18/2008  10:46 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add toniblab to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

one type of coin that just started to leave the cir. is the copper penny 1959 to 1981 I don't check the 82's.with 150,000,000,000 out there.
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Prethen
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Posted 04/18/2008  1:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Prethen to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

I so badly wanted to give a simple answer to the title of this thread.

My answer.... exactly 47 coins.
Specializing in 2-3-20 cent pieces and 19th Century Proofs
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