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Archraz
Pillar Of The Community
2091 Posts |
 Posted 02/07/2010 1:00 pm
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I have noticed over my years of collecting that many collectors really have differing ideas of what constitutes a rare coin. Sure, there are so many factors, such as original mintage, attrition rate, quality of coin production, population melted, demand for a coin (which results in only a certain percentage of the population to actually be on the market), and other such factors. But overall I have noticed that many darkside coins are quite easy to find on the market, and at low prices, whereas some US coins with much higher mintages book for a lot more and are quite elusive. I feel that this is ultimately one major indicator revealing mindsets as to rarity.
For instance, I find that a coin is only rare if fewer than 500K were minted, yet some collectors of US coins marvel at the scarcity of a silver dollar that had a mintage of 4 million.
So in your mind how many of a coin must have been minted for it to be rare?
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rustyboy
Valued Member
United States
263 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 1:41 pm
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Its supply and demand, way more so than actual rarity. I am a Barber guy, so in the Barber half series, there are 20 coins with a mintage under a million that can be obtained without going over $100. In fact, there are 3 with mintages under 200K that can be bought for half of a ... say 1909-S VDB Lincoln. The demand for Barber halves is a fraction for Lincoln cents, despite rarity.
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Archraz
Pillar Of The Community
2091 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 2:14 pm
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rustyboy- Oh, supply and demand certainly is a determining factor concerning how easy a coin can be found on the market, but I am more curious as to how you perceive rarity in terms of mintage.
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925dealer
Valued Member
United States
199 Posts |
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Andrew289
Valued Member
USA
348 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 8:52 pm
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Mintages of silver dollars are largely irrelevant as millions were melted at several point in history. No one really knows for sure the number that actually survive.
It's slightly hypocritical to list the factors that make a coin rare and then ask about what mintage makes something rare. You obviously know that mintage does not determine rarity on its own.
What a red herring.
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Archraz
Pillar Of The Community
2091 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 9:13 pm
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Andrew289- yes, of course there are so many possible indicators of rarity, but I'm just curious as to how much weight people place on mintage within the overall equation that determines the overall scarcity of a coin. No matter what, the coins of every country composed of precious metals have been subject to mass melting, but it just seems that in the US the perception of rarity of US coins is quite a bit different from that of darkside coins.
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GoldRush58
Pillar Of The Community
United States
706 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 10:04 pm
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That is such a hard question to answer. There are just to many factors to consider other that just mintage.
Maybe if your talking 1804 silver dollar or a 1913 nickel where the mintage of the coin, is the reason these coins have a super value.
I would have to say, I do look at the mintage when I am looking to purchase a coin, but I also look at condition and popularity of that coin or series.
There are a lot of cases where low mintage coins are easier to acquire than a coin in the same series that has higher mintage. Like the 1950 D nickel. Another example is the 1932 D Wash quarter 436,800 vs 1932 S with 408,000, the 32 D has a little higher mintage but in MS60, red book value has it twice as much as the 32 S.
Where I am really puzzled by low mintage coins, is with modern commemorative dollar coins. There are many that have mintage less that 150,000 and some that get below 50,000. IMO the prices really do not reflect the rarity of these coins. And at some point, when more collectors decide they want to acquire complete sets of commemorative coins, some of these will double or triple in price.
So how would I answer your question, each coin has to be looked at on it's own merit, to determine how rare it is, and not just on mint released numbers.
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Nic
Pillar Of The Community
Philippines
830 Posts |
Posted 02/07/2010 10:23 pm
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minted volume may define part of a coin's rarity say 40%, then coin's history at 30% coin's long lasting allure 15% and coin collector's demand at 15%
coin's history e.g. say 80% of minted was dumped in the sea before the arrival of the enemy or a circulation loss of 60% due to being melted for it's high quality brass content
a lot of factor's the rarity label is
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jfransch
Valued Member
USA
488 Posts |
Posted 02/08/2010 12:24 am
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Mintage numbers are deceptive as to actual rarity. Some coins have very high mintage numbers but are truly rare and hard to locate. Some have mintage numbers that have no bearing on the number of coins still outstanding due to melting or other loss. However, a coin with a very low mintage, especially a US coin, that has a strong collector demand will always be considered rare. (1877 IHC, 1909s IHC, 1909SVDB Lincoln, 1916d Mercury dime etc.) When you move over to the darkside it gets a little more interesting. Records can be hard to interpret, demand is hard to gauge, and sometimes the fates throw you a curve ball. Large hoards turn up and throw the supply/demand status out of balance. That can happen with US coins also, the 1903o dollar being a great example. With the coins I collect, Spansih Colonial Pillar Dollars (first coin listed in Redbook) the year 1754 shows Mexico mint output at over 11,600,000 pesos, but no breakdown by denomination. Assuming 50% of the production in 8 reales (experts believe closer to 85% based on other years when it is broken down, but go with me here) there would be 5,300,000 1754 8reales. With 4 varieties, 1,300,000 of each variety. Yet a study in USMexna Journal on 1754MoMM with crowns alike could only locate 25 or so known specimens in all the auction and sale catalogues researched. I have looked for 30 years, believe me that coin is rare despite the potential large mintage figure for the year. It is all supply and demand. US coins command a premium price compared to equal mintage foreign coins due to the affluence of America and the size of the collector market here.
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Archraz
Pillar Of The Community
2091 Posts |
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turtleoverhead
Valued Member
Australia
283 Posts |
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nod2003
Pillar Of The Community
United States
1889 Posts |
Posted 02/08/2010 09:13 am
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Yeah, if you go by that scale, 77% of all Morgan dollar year mintmark combinations would be "rare" and only 4% (1887P and all 1921 mints) would be considered common.
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Edited by nod2003 - 02/08/2010 09:14 am |
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just carl
Pillar Of The Community
USA
4500 Posts |
Posted 02/08/2010 10:19 am
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As already said, this is not an easy topic. Rare coins are what you make them. For example of coins not rare and low mintages, look at the 1931S Lincoln Cent, 866,000. Or how about the 31D Mercury Dime with the 4th lowest mintage in the series, 1,260,000 and not really worth much. 1912S Liberty Head Nickel also low mintage yet no real fantastic value.
The popularity of a coin, similar to a painting, is more of what makes it worth anything big therefore sort of rare.
Also, mintages are missleading. You could have a trillion coins minted but if almost all have been destroyed, except a few, that to makes it rare. Example is the 1974 Aluminum Cent. Not sure how many minted but most were supposed to be destroyed.
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just carl |
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Conder101
Pillar Of The Community
USA
2699 Posts |
Posted 02/09/2010 6:50 pm
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The problem is most people confuse rarity with price. They think a high priced coin must be a rare coin and/or a rare coin will have a high price. When it comes to rarity price doesn't matter, mintage doesn't matter, survival matters.
The 1909 SVDB is high priced, but hardly rare. At a large show you can find dozens of them. If you had an unlimited purse I would suspect you could put together a bag of them in a months time. There are plenty of low mintage coins that show up regularly as well. But then there are coins like the 1796 draped bust cent. It has three times the mintage of the 1796 cap cents, but go to a show and you will find ten 96 caps for every 96 draped bust cent you find. The survival rate of the 96 busts was horrible. There are 28 die varieties of the 96 bust, the two most common ones are R-3 coins up to 600 pieces believed to exist. Everything elst is much rarer with most of the varieties having less than 75 pieces known. Where did they all go?
Anyway I follow the Sheldon Rarity scale, I don't call or consider a coin to be "Rare" until it is at least an R-5, 31 to 75 pieces known. And I tell you what, collect early copper for awhile and "rarity" in most series will not impress you at all.
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schmidty
Valued Member
United States
448 Posts |
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BadThad
Pillar Of The Community
USA
5458 Posts |
Posted 02/09/2010 11:05 pm
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For me....rare...means a coin that's very difficult to obtain regardless of mintage. It is rarelyseen for sale on the open market. Anything else is just a key date. The 1909-S VDB is scarce, but not rare. It is simply a key date.
Price has nothing to do with rarity and everything to do with demand.
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