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Silver Dips Below $30

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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 09/03/2012  10:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list
Actually the gold/silver ratio in 1900 was 30.58/1. Gold was $18.96/oz and Silver was $0.62/oz.

Therefore the monetary value of the silver dollar was greater than it's intrinsic value.

With Nineteen Silver dollars you buy an ounce of Gold. The intrinsic value of those silver dollars was only $11.78.

That's an aside. The question was directed at why the sudden change in price from a price range that went back centuries. Why is the current price range the new norm? All one has to do is follow the money. Cause and effect. It is not rocket science. The price in most commodities have gone up since 2004 when the speculators invaded the Commodities market. Or at least those Commodities on the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). Interestingly those commodities that are NOT on the S&P GSCI are at some of their lowest levels in years; ala Iron.

It is very easy to see that speculation, not supply and demand, has driven the price of commodities on the GSCI. The same people who have made massive profits on the GSCI are the same ones who have made record profits during the "Great Recession".

It is not about the intrinsic value of Gold or Silver. It is not about supply and demand. Demand is down; especially for silver. The GSCI is nothing more, or less, than the financial sectors form of "Las Vegas". They even call it "bets", because that is what they are. They bet on the price of a given commodity rising or falling.

Look at oil. The pump price is tied to the Commodity price. Note this is not the actual price. BP's cost to produce a barrel of oil is consistent within the given extraction method. It does not change every time the commodity index moves up or down.

So if you were a large Oil corporation and you wanted your profits to go up you simply leverage the Spot Price for a barrel of oil up to justify raising the pump price. Your actual overhead never goes up. It is all paper oil. That is how and why gas prices are where they are at and why Oil companies keep making record profits.

The same thing with Gold and Silver. Except that there are people that don't own much physical pm's so much as they own large amounts of paper/ETF's.

If you were a big enough player you could go long and simply by purchasing enough bets you can leverage the market up and make a profit. Then, since you know that the market is up because of your actions, you short the market and sell. If your frontage when you sell is wide enough it produces a perception of a broad based sell off which causes other traders to follow suit. Which brings your price point down to your sell level and you then take your profits from shorting the market. If you had millions of shares in ETF's you can make millions a day.

See?
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 09/03/2012  6:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
Note this is not the actual price. BP's cost to produce a barrel of oil is consistent within the given extraction method. It does not change every time the commodity index moves up or down.



So if the price of steel or petroleum or some other intrinsic commodity required in the extraction process went up, wouldn't that mean the commodity index does indeed impact a company's operating costs? If this is an accurate assessment on my part, perhaps oil companies, regardless of size- much like all the super corps- are indeed slaves to the commodity market like the rest of us, at least in certain respects.




Quote:
Which brings your price point down to your sell level and you then take your profits from shorting the market. If you had millions of shares in ETF's you can make millions a day.



Wouldn't we have seen more volatility in the market if an NGO like GS or JPM was running up the market then shorting it ad nauseum? Or is it more likely that the few big players in the silver market end up effectively cancelling each other out due to the fact that they are all working at cross purposes with one another?




Thanks for the insight, Jim. Fascinating stuff. I always look forward to read your stuff!

Edited by traevin
09/03/2012 6:12 pm
Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts
 Posted 09/03/2012  6:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add trout1105 to your friends list

Quote:
Wouldn't we have seen more volatility in the market if an NGO like GS or JPM was running up the market then shorting it ad nauseum? Or is it more likely that the few big players in the silver market end up effectively cancelling each other out due to the fact that they are all working at cross purposes with one another?


I am of the opinion that the "Fat Cats" are working together to manipulate the markets
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 09/03/2012  6:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list
Volume the key. If you owned millions of shares and moved the price up even forty cents you would make a tremendous profit; relative to the number of shares you hold.

We have all seen the cycle of the last few months where it has been low before the New York opening and then then climbed to an afternoon peak....only to sell off.

Imagine if you had a million shares and you went long each morning and short each afternoon. If the trading range was only $0.20 you would have made $400,000 each and every day; if you bought and sold at the proper time. And we are talking about the people that truely control the market.

The entities we are talking about have tens of millions shares; if not more. So; no, we had volatility in the market but not so extreme that it brought notice. A forty percent profit is a handsome return in anyone's book.

The Price of petroleum going up does not affect a petroleum company. They are not going to charge themselves more just because they charge their customers more.

And while the price of steel might affect them, those commodities are not traded on the GSCI and so are actually at recent lows. Also remember that large corporations buy in bulk and under contract at a specific price. And many of today's corporations are part of conglomerates. So If a petroleum company wants to build a drilling rig AND they own a steel mill, then commodities price points are meaningless....to them.

I agree though that it could keep them enthralled as well; at least in theory.

There was a write up on a recent study by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich looking into Corporations and the web of ownership around the world and found that only 147 corporations owned 40 percent of the worlds business'. They also noted that they did not delve any deeper and that the number might be for a much smaller owning group; and much large "owned" group. This was a preliminary model.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 09/03/2012  10:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
The Price of petroleum going up does not affect a petroleum company. They are not going to charge themselves more just because they charge their customers more.


Right. What I had in mind were the thousands of products that are petroleum-based. Each company selling products created from an increased petrol price would pass on the cost to a company like Exxon, for instance. Although oil companies make great windfalls by speculating in the market they essentially own, the ancillary commodity costs do impact them. That was the only point that I wanted to expound upon.

But with record profits entering their coffers, I doubt Big Oil is complaining.

When 90% of our nation is in the hands of less than 10% of the population, we are well down to path to an autocratic political system with only the dying vestiges of our once great democracy intact.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 09/04/2012  1:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list
Oh, right, Traevin, my mistake. You are, of course, correct.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/04/2012  5:20 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Let see from before the Revolutionary War to 2004; silver has been priced between $4 and $6.

Don't know about the Revolutionary War days but in the late 19th century, the US silver price was fixed at about $1.29 per ozt., which is why a US silver dollar contains 0.7734 ozt. of silver.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 09/04/2012  5:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list
And 1 oz of gold was about $20 making the ratio about 16 to 1
Valued Member
United States
90 Posts
 Posted 09/04/2012  6:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ant024 to your friends list
What are other sites everyone buy their silver from. I been using goldmart. Want to buy Johnson Matthew 10 oz bar. (goldmart out of stock) anyone have any sites that are cheaper?
Edited by ant024
09/04/2012 7:15 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
1554 Posts
 Posted 09/05/2012  01:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add 1893S to your friends list
Just read tonight the "Big Shots" don't have the physical silver for demand.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 09/05/2012  07:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list
Again. I saw that too. Last time the price dropped
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/05/2012  11:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
What are other sites everyone buy their silver from. I been using goldmart. Want to buy Johnson Matthew 10 oz bar. (goldmart out of stock) anyone have any sites that are cheaper?

GoldMart is pretty much the cheapest I have seen but the other silver and gold sellers on the web very often have a larger selection. I really like BU grade US 90% silver coins and APMEX is one of the few places I have found that not only has them but also has a good variety of them and a good quantity as well. I also buy from Provident and from SilverTowne sometimes. Both are good honest businesses that provide good service and products at fair, if not rock bottom, prices.
Pillar of the Community
United States
863 Posts
 Posted 09/07/2012  11:40 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silvercoinrn to your friends list
so it seems that this is no longer a relevant topic :)time to lock it up?
Pillar of the Community
Mexico
1304 Posts
 Posted 09/07/2012  4:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add harrison2 to your friends list
Yeah...about that time.
Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts
 Posted 09/07/2012  4:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Bryan1315 to your friends list
I agree this one has run its course
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