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 Replies: 21 / Views: 6,391 |
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Valued Member
Canada
475 Posts |
THIS IS JUST THE RESULT OF A HOARD OR A SINGLE ROLL COMING ON THE MARKET. It is not the first or the last time that this will happen. The way Stephen Bromberg is marketing them kind of scews the market for sure but oh well! His coins and his business. Surprisingly some of the deals offered on the shopping channel are not that bad! PS a roll of 1913 5 cents showed a few years back.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
CCN Trends has discussed the 1914 5c this in the last two issues. The Trends editor (Sean Isaacs) put in an unspecified change that didn't make it into the previous issue. And still nothing has changed (I guess some dealer/owner something-storm hit and they took a pause), but he is talking about it again.
Sean is proposing the MS-65 be adjusted from $1250 down by 1/3. Which I think is still ridiculously high, since it appears maybe up to 200 pieces of MS-65 and better were discovered. That's a massive spike in top-grades. It probably should be somewhere in the $400-$500 range for MS-65.
For sure, anyone who bought into the shopping channel sell-off is going to be fighting mad at the drop off coming up.
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Valued Member
291 Posts |
I wouldn't be interested at those prices.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1700 Posts |
Are those minted with really weak dies? The MS 67 doesn't seem to show many deails.
By the way, the MS 67 looks to be scratched.
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Moderator
 Canada
10463 Posts |
The dies are not weak - the strikes, however, that is a different matter... I suspect the coin is better in hand, PCGS just does not hand out MS-67 grades, if the eye-appeal is not there...
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert OppenheimerContent of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_USMy eBay store
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
More talk in the latest CCN. And still no adjustment.
The Trends editor is clearly getting a lot of blow-back from stakeholders wanting to prop up the current listing price. There is an argument that Trends should be reflecting the prices realized and not be setting them, but the editor is clearly uncomfortable leaving a grade scarce pricing and ignoring a HUGE hoard of 200+ MS-65+ coins. Something like insider information.
Some stakeholders are trying to push that the market could sustain the $1250 MS-65 through a distribution of the hoard. This concerns me since it reads more like the stakeholders wanting to unload their coins before the coming crash.
There is no way, with proper knowledge of the hoard, that collectors would pay a massive premium on 1914 5c compared to other dates of similar high-grade availability simply because it was once scarce in high grade.
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Valued Member
Canada
103 Posts |
it's a simple matter of supply and demand. In my opinion, the supply in the ms 65 and 66 grades will exceed the demand, so the prices in those grades will fall. My guess is that the price of the ms 67 coins will remain fairly firm, since there's only 5 of those coins, and there are at least that many collectors who are looking for the finest examples possible of each date.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1700 Posts |
Is this an alliance or something?
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Valued Member
Canada
103 Posts |
I'm not sure what you mean by "alliance". My take on it is this: the 1914 date has been scarce. There have been well established prices for ages. Along comes a hoard of high grade coins. No one knows for certain where the prices will end up. The trends editors are in an impossible position. They can "set" a new price in trends, based on what the coins "should" be selling for, or they can keep the price in line with what the market price has been, and then adjust trends when there is a price correction. In this case, I actually think that they have it right. They are widely advertising the fact that the hoard has hit the market, and that the price should fall, but they aren't leading the way by artificially creating a new price. Instead, the market will dictate the new price, and the trends will follow. The only one who gets burnt in this case is the person who isn't paying attention. But realistically, I would submit that most buyers of coins >$1000 are paying attention enough to know about this hoard, and know enough to factor it into their buying decisions.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
It has the potential to push down all MS grades, so it doesn't end with top feeders.
It is an difficult situation for the Trends editor. It is made more difficult from the apparent fact that those involved in setting Trends don't have access to the hoard. So where are the new prices going to come from?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
The decision, for now, is to "restore" (which should read "maintain" since the price was never actually adjusted IN PRINT), the $1250 price point for MS-65.
The main argument is the coins are selling, to people knowledgeable about the hoard, at original prices ("and above").
There are some dealers on here. So, what would you offer a seller for an 1914 5c MS-65 with good eye appeal?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1192 Posts |
^ That is a good question, and one I was just faced with from a prospective client. Given how it went from being tied with the rarest George V silver 5 cent date coins (other than 1921 of course) to becoming the most abundant in MS65+, I didn't even want to make an offer on it. I haven't seen any sell recently in a true market setting. I'd suspect they would go for a fraction of what they used to go for. Some very "interesting" politics involved the STILL unchanged trends pricing on these particular date coins... The Shopping Channel is currently advertising a 1914 PCGS MS-65 5 cent at $1,195. Quite a large price increase from the initial offering of <$900 per MS-65 graded piece. http://www.theshoppingchannel.com/T...nav=R:626752Edited by Pokermandude
04/15/2014 10:37 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1984 Posts |
Sounds to me like a similar situation to the 2006 magnetic no logo no P cent. A huge hoard was recently found and offered at high prices. I doubt many/any? have sold. But it is a more common coin. Now MS66 coins don't sell on ebay at $400 or so. They were $900 3 years back. This coin should sell at half what it used to. But if the seller is patient and strong, it may take 10 or 20 years to get there. It needs to have some of the coins he sells come back into the market to compete against him. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
Yeah, 1.5 years later and we still have no movement on the 1914. The MS-65, MS-66 and MS-67 ($6000!) presumably all sold, so their original argument is hard to debate, but I still think the prices are too high.
The crash several of us expected, has not happened.
As for the 2006 magnetic no logo no P cent, I've seen MS-65 going for under $200. MS-64 for under $90. And, as you say, the MS-66 goes unsold at $400. So, there is a definite market trend that should be affecting the Trends on that coin.
The politics of Trends remains obtuse.
Edited by dialog_gvf
04/16/2014 12:28 am
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Posted 09/25/2012 6:50 pm
