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The problem with price targets is no one really knows an exact price target hence why rather than emphasize price targets one should look for trends.

Trends are very powerful, when the momentum gathers, it can carry a price much farther than anyone expects. Many trends can last for years and in between carry a TON of back filling.

Therefore to be objective a thread such as mine offers the best insight. I dont attempt price targets because I know I will be WRONG. However, when it comes to spotting a trend and finding them, I can manage coming very close. Which btw, part of the success to trading trends is I dont put any sort of exact price target. In fact in all my trades, I solely shoot to get confirmation of properly entering a trend, having an exit should I be wrong and how to manage to stay in the trend.

The reason Art was wrong is because he filled to identify the subtle changes and clues in the uptrend. One reason he was wrong was failing to identify the retracements as gold and silver fell in price from their yearly highs. a successive list of lower highs and lower lows which brings us to were we are today.

That is why currently with all authority and certainty I can say gold and silver are still stuck in downtrends, and at BEST are broken assets. In time, this back and forth will be broken. At this point, based on all the reactions for gold and silver, another leg lower looks like the more probable scenario. As anyone can see, NOTHING helps gold or silver to get a sustainable move to break out of this downtrend.

Finally, at this point, one should completely STOP thinking about higher prices. Prices are stuck in a downtrend. The more it hangs here, the harder it will be for gold and silver to overcome all these price levels above it. In fact, before you can even start to DREAM about higher prices, you have to see the downtrend be broken.

To sum it up,,, we are no where near breaking the downtrend. Remember, trends and momentum are very strong and they work in both directions. After many great years of running higher, now the downtrend is the prevailing force.

No problem. I knew it would get some responses here (as have all the others like it).

Fat Freddy summed it up very well, "The one common denominator between all of these threads is that they're all speculative and nobody knows with any certainty just what the future holds."

Can gold and silver hit crazy prices? Sure. Will they?

That would be logical and you'd think that'd be what would happen, but...

Demand for physical Au & Ag has been running high while prices hang around in the vicinity of a 3-year low. It seems that spot is unimpressed by demand for physical product.

With that being the case, I have to wonder if a major skyrocketing of price (unlikely though that seems) being followed by stackers offloading major quantities of physical PM's
coupled with a drop in physical demand would have any effect on spot either.

The progress of spot prices in the last year seems to have been very little influenced by physical demand. It seems that the classic "supply and demand" model hasn't been
applicable to PM spots for over a year now.

Probably longer than that. Considering silver got up 50 and sat in the 30/40s for a while you would think it would be hard to find something that had increased in price more tha 4 times. Even then it may have been hard to find low premium stuff or order massives quantities but it didnt take a lot of effort to find stuff for a couple bucks over spot. If it was simply supply and demand there would have been an increase but not to that extent.

But can't gold and silver be used over and over again? What are the metals being used for that's causing a demand?

Yeah, good luck with that. You might be able to get bullion at great prices, but my experience is that as soon as spot value dips the premiums on numismatic silver and gold skyrockets to compensate. It may eventually go back down, but by then the spot price will likely have risen again...

Spot price has remarkably little to do with availability of physical silver at that price. Especially when the price falls. No bullion dealer who paid $30 an ounce for silver is going to sell that same silver to customers for $20, just because the price falls. Instead, they'll hold it, until the price comes up again or until they have to pay the bills and can't hold it any longer.