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How Hard Have The Great Lakes Series Tanked? Look At This

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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5324 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  5:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add john100 to your friends list
About a year ago there was no RCM dealers offering any rewards or discount programs, now the other than CP, the next few has their version. These dealers would not offer discounts if the markets are well, and no matter how you slice it you can't blame the situation on the buyers, we did not crank out a coin a day, never adjusted prices to bullion value, allowed endless commissioned units, have a few surveys that went no where, even my rep who agrees that there is way too many offerings but like he said, hard to argue with 2/3 sellouts, there comes a time when the market place will talk, like right now, but we as collectors are not the one to blame, clearly it's a RCM short term marketing decision to crank out as many units as the market will bear without the long term consequences. As for CP walk into any outlet around the GTA, they are full of coins and many has stopped ordering new coins as nothing is moving. Know one would buy a collectible if you are 98% sure this product will be cheaper months down the road.
Edited by john100
01/09/2016 5:44 pm
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  6:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list
Perhaps it is that everyone is different. From my perspective I need X amount of money earned by income, investments or property, pensions, etc to survive now and into the future, and consider myself fortunate to have X amount of money left over to spend on non-essentuals such as hobbies, entertainment, eating out, vacations, or other frivolous stuff including about once every while I buy lotto tickets when the pot goes high and last year we spent a few days gambling in Vegas. But never the two paths shall cross and I expect absolutely no monetary returns from the later, it's purely for enjoyment. Perhaps because I've purchased and still own Proof sets for decades that have never held their value, I have low expectations of future values of NCLT in general.

We can complain on an Internet forum about the wrongs of RCM until our faces turn blue but at the end of the day we have absolutely no control other than whether or not we pull out our wallets (figuratively speaking of course).
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  6:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
Its true no one in their right mind will buy a collectable, if there's a 98% certainty of savings later. This is why I am having a hard time deciding whether or not to buy the 2 oz GITD coin. I want it for its subject matter the wolves and mountains. Don't care about the glow effect. I am trying to maximize my collector $, makes some coins hard to time.

The first isn't under issue, so its hard to say what this one will do.

The Great Lakes are amazing coins, with the different enamel. Its sad they got lost in the noise of so many releases. I think they really need to be displayed in the case, for the full impact. I'm not really sure what happened with this set. Many people were pumped about the set, its thread was several pages long.

I can understand the O Canada coins tanking with a mintage of 40k. They shouldn't of done a second set so soon. Then like someone pointed out, they do a theme to death. It was an affordable way for a beginning collector to get into the hobby. Not everyone can afford to drop $100-$200 monthly on coins. We tend to forget budgets are as varied as the collector. It shouldn't just be an elitist thing if the hobby is to survive long term.
Edited by pocket change 50
01/09/2016 6:18 pm
Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  7:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list
Pocket Change, I agree buying NCLT can be a very expensive hobby, far more than circulated coin collecting. As you mentioned earlier, I also notice sometimes what seems a pack mentality of "gotta have". Not sure why that is, just human nature I guess. I also suspect that the reason RCM pumps a successful theme to death is because we as a society in general are obsessed with consumerism and having NEW stuff. By virtue a coin that is dated a couple years ago, heck even last year, is OLD to a lot of people and old simply does not generate the same level of enthusiasm or interest as getting something NEW.
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6768 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  7:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silveroid to your friends list

Quote:
because we as a society in general are obsessed with consumerism and having NEW stuff. By virtue a coin that is dated a couple years ago, heck even last year, is OLD to a lot of people and old simply does not generate the same level of enthusiasm or interest as getting something NEW.


i think this drives every collector. Everyone want a new item being added to collection, after it was added...."what is coming new?" And the NCLT is very strong example, cause unlike old circulation coins, the NCLTs are coming and coming.

Why people collect "old" circulation coins, which never will change? Just because human nature to own.
I would agree, that self-education also play role, but still, to have and to own main driver.
Edited by Silveroid
01/09/2016 8:03 pm
Pillar of the Community
Canada
1751 Posts
 Posted 01/09/2016  10:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
This has become a great discussion on the pros and cons of collecting nclt coins. Lets face it circulation coins the market is pretty stable, with few fluctuations. So a collector knows what to expect in terms of pricing. Now modern nclt coins started in 1971 and has been through vast changes that don't seem to be over.

I entered the nclt hobby at its height in 2012. Talk was all about what profit coin x was generating and where to get it at issue. A young forum member even became a RCM dealer, another member got a gst number for his selling. Many people were getting a couple extra to sell. It was a way of subsidizing their hobby.

Now many of those collectors don't post anymore, so one assumes they left the hobby. Those who remain are more cautious or moved to another branch of the hobby. Then slowly the market started to change with frequent releases. No longer could a guess be made as to what is hot. Then slowly resale prices started dropping, followed by dealer sales. I don't find dealer sales are that often and many coins I am interested in have small discounts if any. Its important to look at the recent history, to understand some of the frustration.

This drop in resale prices coincides with low silver spot price compared to $35 an oz, when I started.

The problem is the mint keeps inching prices upwards as spot continues on the decline. If silver spot didn't matter, we would be happy buying copper nclt. There needs to be a sensible correlation to spot prices.

The latest high relief is $149.95 for 1 oz. While silver is $19 an oz, or about 7 times spot. No wonder collectors shake their head. It seems like the mint is sucking all potential out of current releases.

Now how many collectors proudly show off a coin, while gushing I lost $40 on it. It does not make for a happy collector.

I have fine art pieces that haven't appreciated much in 20 years, however they haven't declined either. People that pay for collectables, usually collect items of value. Collecting probably serve many psychological functions. One which is a sense of security.

Those that collect items of little or no value, are now called hoarders. Which has been recognized as an illness. My kid hoard video games and lego. We have loads of old video games and systems. Downloadable games are getting pricy like coins. Now I just don't get spending $70 on a down load game, with no resale value, or buying in game add ons. At least I can hold my coin, or sell it when broke.

Everyone has contributed great perspectives and it has been a most enjoyable read.
Edited by pocket change 50
01/09/2016 10:31 pm
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 01/10/2016  03:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list
wow this thread really exploded with comments, interesting to read it.

So, whats the fuss about?

I'll tell you what all the fuss is about. When you buy a RC car/plane,boat, you do not see fall by 50-60% in 6 months, prices stay consistent, with newer models having new features and a possible increase in price. Very few hobbies that I have been/am in see product crater after its release.

All private and government mints are doing a disservice to collectors and their hard earned money. There is way too MUCH supply for the amount of collectors out there. It is causing a fatigue that is hurting our hobby.

On top of too much supply, coin prices are just too OVERPRICED and INFLATED. Tell me why I should I run out and buy every coin I want (I could certainly do that if I wanted too) when I can wait on the secondary market for 6 months or more and find these coins for less?

I for one am not into coin collecting for investment, for flipping or any monetary reason. I make money in financial markets so I am set. However that doesn't mean I go throwing around my money, paying full price. Forget that.

Low mintages are not the solution either. I would venture anything over 1,000 of a certain coin is wayyyyyyy high. Have you ever gone back and compiled prices on coins issued say by the Perth Mint that were for say a 1 oz gold coin with 150 mintage and compared the issue price with the current market price on ebay? Those coins and others tank HARD.

Which brings me to the second reason NCLT coins are hurting. Not only is there an oversupply of product, but the gold and silver markets are in a huge downtrend. No one wants to pay 100 dollars for a silver coin with silver prices dropping.


So you have the perfect storm to deter buyers: a falling asset with no rebound in sight with huge over supply of coins. In fact, probably the biggest headwind is that the minters of coins are not pricing their product to reflect the drop in silver and gold. The public says "naww, isn't worth it anymore".

Hey, the RCM and other mints can continue to pump out product and get other people to pay full price for their coins but they wont do it to me. I'll gladly pick off the deals as the coins get get slashed 50-60% or more.
Edited by yup7676
01/10/2016 03:12 am
Pillar of the Community
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6768 Posts
 Posted 01/10/2016  08:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silveroid to your friends list
Yup, you right in the facts that you listed, and what we are, the collector can do with this.

But you, this is the collector's point of view.
We choose the themes, trying to get the best of the offering, collect the coins, display them and always hope, that our coins will hold the value.

But looks like the Mint, at least the strong one like RCM, (and this was already said here by one of the collectors), refers to the coins as "mass production items", without thinking about any hobby or collectability (they will use these terms to try to sell only).
So the Mint set the mintage and the prices without analyzing "will this Bear coin do well on the secondary market, or will be collectors happy with it".
The do analyze expected final mintage.

As addition:
Some rumor (one poster) on the other forum says about continue of the Glass series. Does "The Turtle" do well? No.
But it (according to rumor) continues same mintage and pricing.
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1751 Posts
 Posted 01/12/2016  9:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
I have started a thread where we can continue this fine discussion on price trend on the hobby. We should get back to discussing the Great Lakes set. I have found both at issue prices and discounts in the ebay sold section.

Its a beautifully designed set in an attractive case. So it displays well. I do like the look of enamel coins. There's something uniquely special about this innovation. I would rather have it over crystal or fancy glass dodads. I think enamel enhances the look of a well engraved coin. There must be a limited amount of sets, as most people never completed them. I have the first 3 coins, so hunting for final two. I wish they would of put the map on the cover of the case, not just on the outer box. This set is amazing, it doesn't repeat themes done 10 times over. My only real criticism is the price of $114, when silver is around $20. They suck any room for appreciation out from the start. I really think this set got lost in the noise of to many releases. I am on the prairies, only saw 1 of the lakes back in 1999, and I enjoy them. They had a several page thread on release. Most collectors were intrigued and proud to post images of these coins. They deserve more respect. Hopefully they will regain the respect in yrs down the road. I think like Yup said falling silver plays a major roll.
Edited by pocket change 50
01/12/2016 9:16 pm
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 Posted 01/13/2016  1:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list
The Great Lakes series is a very nice set of coins. I love the idea, great concept and very appealing in terms of visuals. I love the blue enamel as well. The whole set looks great in the box as well for presentation. But man, such a high price over spot, good lord lol.

I really want the Lake Michigan coin as that Lake is near me and I have trained for marathons on the path that follows it so this coin really resonates with me. But I see fair market value around mid 60s USD and I am prepared to wait until I see it at that price. I mean really, they wanted was it 114 USD? Yet I saw PF69s go, at auction for mid 60s. I can do that math and see that waiting patiently is worth it.
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Canada
17 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2016  4:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add AgentArgent to your friends list
Hi. I'm very new to these forums (first post ever a dead giveaway) but I've frequently reviewed topics of interest on these forums since I got into the coin collecting hobby (NCLT only c. 2013). Just wanted to share my thoughts and also looking forward to interacting with more savvy/experienced collectors here.

Truthfully, this was the set that got me into coin collecting, albeit the cost/coin was intimidating. Being new into collecting I wasn't aware of the trending of newer NCLT coins/series to drop in value so shortly after release as I had yet to discover these centres of higher discussions. Being a prairie kid we don't see many massive lakes (yes, Lake Winnipeg/Manitoba aside) and I've always had a soft spot for geography/history so this series was quite honestly 'love at first sight'. I subscribed to the series, paid my MSRP for the set and enjoy pulling the box out (you really do need the box/cover for full appreciation) and viewing these coins under light at different angles. Every time I look at these coins it's a different experience (the silver shimmers/darkens, the enameled depths stand out on different coins)!

Do I love this set? Absolutely! Do I regret paying full price? Not really. Yes, with the benefit of hindsight, knowing others out there can get the same coins for 1/2 price is mildly annoying, but you know what? Good for them if they get that added bonus. It was mentioned in a previous post about apportioning your earnings and honestly after alot of hard thought, this was a set I wanted and would've regretted missing out on, so I paid the "extra" for that piece of mind (much like an extended warranty piece of mind except, you know, I actually got something tangible at the end). Cars depreciate, electronics depreciate...most things depreciate, but there is a hard floor for what the lowest value this coin can hit is (spot price of silver), and that's really worst case scenario.

None of what I've read/written diminishes my appreciation for the effort and artistry that were put into this coin. I treat NCLT coins much like art, if I don't get the wow factor when I see it or if I don't feel any connection to the coin then I'm probably a passer unless I see some ludicrous deal for it down the road. These forums have given me more clarity on future purchases, and I've learned that sometimes a good deal on the coins you want can be had if you practice a little patience. And sometimes, people just need to "spoil" themselves an satisfy that 'gotta have it now' itch (as long as no one's taking out large loans to do it).

I've seen someone post their picture of the set and if I get around to it I'll try to post a picture of my coin set in a good lighting. Personally I love Lake Huron (the overall shape of the lake has always caught my eye)!


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Canada
1751 Posts
 Posted 01/15/2016  5:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
to CCF agent, its always great to meet new collectors. What a great first post! I can see you really appreciate your set. Your post is what this hobby is all about. I hope you have gain much knowledge about collecting here, the collectors are very friendly. Many years ago there were many people posting photos of there coins, it has thinned a bit.
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3789 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2016  03:18 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list
man, 60 USD a coin, that was a STEAL.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/COMPLETE-SE...AOSwsFpWRlQf

AgentArgent, welcome to the forum.

Dont get me wrong, I dont want anyone to feel bad if they overpaid. I just hope everyone realizes a little patience can get them a great deal!
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1751 Posts
 Posted 01/17/2016  5:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
I had miss read about the price in another thread. I thought that would be rather high for the set back then. Its great to have the input of collectors that have been collecting a long while. I like the historical aspect. Canadian nclt coins are only 45 yrs old, so not a long history. Ty Dcadon for the correction!

I had read that the US faced this nclt crisis, back in the thirties I believe and their prices have rebounded. Those issues seem to be sought after now 80 yrs later. They also revamped how many commen coins are release. We need Commens to do a comparison. His posts are always insightful and from a long time collector too.

A lot of this probably do to the state of the economy, everything is depressed, not just the coin market. I am surprised the mint has any sell outs, in these depressed times. Coins were doing great, during the time the cad was at par with the usd.

I
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 Posted 01/19/2016  09:22 am  Show Profile   Check SPP-Ottawa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SPP-Ottawa to your friends list
You know, CCF _does_ have a precious metals forum for conversations like this... you leave me no choice but to split the thread... Continue discussions on precious metal investing there.
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert Oppenheimer

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