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Salzberg Advises: Research PCGS Populations And Prices

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Valued Member
United States
283 Posts
 Posted 01/18/2017  11:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dith Pran to your friends list

Quote:
I could start on classic silver commemoratives, but I've yammered way too long...


I'm actually very interested in what you might have to say on the subject...
Rest in Peace
United States
233 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  10:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list
I am ignorant of how the grading services arrive at their population counts.

Q/ Am I to understand that, when each coin is graded, someone goes through the photographic records of the tens of coins that have been graded at that level to be certain that they have never seen this particular coin before? At other grades, too?

Q/ Or, are they just counting the certificates they have issued?

If the latter, it seems to me unsurprising that population counts have increased, and at an increasing rate.

Why? Lots of people have lots of coins and, as the craze has caught on, are grading & slabbing more & more of their coins.

Might it not be just that simple?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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188213 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  12:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list

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What is this world coming to?!?!
TypeCoin, you have been keeping up with my posts in the Ike thread, right?
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United States
17884 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  4:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Conder101 to your friends list

Quote:
Q/ Am I to understand that, when each coin is graded, someone goes through the photographic records of the tens of coins that have been graded at that level to be certain that they have never seen this particular coin before? At other grades, too?

Q/ Or, are they just counting the certificates they have issued?

If the latter, it seems to me unsurprising that population counts have increased, and at an increasing rate.

Why? Lots of people have lots of coins and, as the craze has caught on, are grading & slabbing more & more of their coins.

The latter, they just count the "certificates" they have issued. About the only time populations are revised downward is if someone sends in labels from coins that have been cracked out (almost never happens) or if someone sends in a coin they have already grading, in the slab, for a regrade and the grade changes (occasionally happens.)

What really pushes them up though is when people keep cracking out and resubmitting the same coin over and over again trying to get that slight upgrade.
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Canada
849 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  4:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add punman to your friends list
Would there be any way of telling which PCGS slabs are say, less than six years old?
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United States
1839 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  6:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tbone to your friends list
Here's what Don Willis had to say


Quote:
PCGS is the world's leading grading service for many reasons, most importantly because we operate with a level of transparency and objectivity that is unmatched in the industry. PCGS has always been and will continue to be the most effective Consumer Protection advocate in the coin market.

PCGS is also a tough competitor. We set the standard for third party grading 30 years ago. Every other grading service has attempted to copy that standard and has been playing a game of catch up for all these years. Mark Salzberg, Chairman of NGC, recently published an open letter wherein he attempted to smear PCGS and strike fear in the hearts of collectors.

In regards to increasing populations, first of all we confess to being the most popular grading service. We process many more Vintage coins than NGC. Secondly, populations rarely go down. There are always hidden collections, accumulations or hoards that come out. As Mr. Salzberg probably knows but failed to mention, there have been several original rolls of 1912-S 5c that have come to the market in the past few years. In 2016 PCGS handled at least 2 fresh rolls of gem 1912-S 5c. These rolls were handled by some of the most knowledgeable dealers in the business. We are proud of the fact that these individuals, who have great insight in to the coin market, chose PCGS to grade their coins.

Another phenomena contributing to increased PCGS populations is our crossover service. Many collectors and dealers who own coins graded by other grading services attempt to cross their coins into PCGS holders. As a matter of fact many dealers deliberately buy NGC coins and cross them to PCGS at a lower grade, subsequently selling them at a profit. Simply look at many of the coins sold in the recent Newman and Partrick auctions by Heritage and you can see for yourself how many have already been crossed over.

PCGS graders have over 250 years of experience. All of our grading is done through a sophisticated grading system which reflects this knowledge and was developed over 30 years of operational experience. The market's confidence in PCGS graded coins is greater than ever. As we recently reported all of the top 20 coins sold in auction during 2016 were graded by PCGS. As we have also reported, over 80% of all CAC coins sold in recent auctions were PCGS coins. CAC is a respected independent organization with no ties to PCGS yet based on public information 4 out of 5 coins they approve have been graded by PCGS.

We can assure every collector and dealer around the world that PCGS has always been, and always will be, committed to providing the most accurate and impartial grading in the market.

Sincerely,

Don Willis
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6370 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  6:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TypeCoin971793 to your friends list

Quote:
In regards to increasing populations, first of all we confess to being the most popular grading service. We process many more Vintage coins than NGC. Secondly, populations rarely go down. There are always hidden collections, accumulations or hoards that come out. As Mr. Salzberg probably knows but failed to mention, there have been several original rolls of 1912-S 5c that have come to the market in the past few years. In 2016 PCGS handled at least 2 fresh rolls of gem 1912-S 5c. These rolls were handled by some of the most knowledgeable dealers in the business. We are proud of the fact that these individuals, who have great insight in to the coin market, chose PCGS to grade their coins.


And this is exactly the reason why one should avoid conditional rarities. More are found, and the price goes down.

And, like I said, NGC was not telling the whole story.
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United States
1533 Posts
 Posted 01/19/2017  7:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Andrew99 to your friends list
The use of condition rarity coins only as his examples of prices collapsing and populations exploding is foolish and misleading. Nobody buying rare coins lost 90% of their money in the past 5 years. The real losers were people that got caught up in the Registry Set chase in common coin issues. If the coin wouldn't stand on its own without the slab at the price you're being asked, then it is not worth it in the slab.
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United States
1839 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2017  10:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tbone to your friends list
Interesting commentary posted today about the Salzberg vs. Willis dust-up

http://www.coinweek.com/opinion/opi...t-realities/
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188213 Posts
Pillar of the Community
United States
3132 Posts
 Posted 01/29/2017  11:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add srs77 to your friends list
This has been a very interesting read so first thank you to all who have participated. Here are my thoughts, please understand that this is how I 'collect'. If you're in this for profit then I believe it's a different argument but anyway here are my thoughts.

First, do I have PCGS and NGC graded coins in my 'collection'. Yes... They were purchased by looking at the coin and not the holder as everyone I think agrees should be done.

Second, have I ever submitted a coin to any grading company? No, nor will I ever. I simply don't need their 'opinion' on the grade of my coin because I think I am able to do this myself and where I'm not so sure I can post pics of the coin here to get great opinions on the grades of my coins from all of you and I sincerely appreciate that! So for me it's a waste of time and money to send my coins off to the grading companies for something I can get done myself.

Remember, I'm a collector not someone looking to turn a profit. There is nothing wrong with that but it is simply not my approach.

My father and grandfather got me into 'collecting' 48 years ago. I got into it as a kid who was wide eyed and enjoyed the 'hunt'. I still do. I always will. What this means is I don't have all 'perfect' coins but rather I have a collection of coins that range anywhere from P02 to MS-66 (my highest graded coin). I look at my coins EVERY DAY and truly enjoy them no matter the grade. I always wonder where they've been, who might have held them what have they seen? THAT to me is the enjoyment of the hobby. BTW my wife swears my loupe is permanently attached to my hand!

Everyone has the right to tackle their collection as they see fit and I'd never tell someone they should or shouldn't have a coin graded. That is for them to decide and I don't want to impart any bias on their decision.

As far as PCGS, NGC, ANACS and any others who are grading coins, you won't see my business for the reasons stated above but I sincerely hope you all remember what the hobby is all about. I hope that you truly have the best interest of the hobby at heart as you grade. For this hobby to flourish in the future our children remain that future. They more we bring them into the 'fun' of the hobby the more the hobby will exist for a long time to come.

I will continue to follow this most interesting thread and I hope I haven't offended anyone by this post as that was not it's intent. Rather, just a viewpoint from someone who has collected for a long time, long before PCGS and NGC existed...

Have fun everyone...
Pillar of the Community
United States
1839 Posts
 Posted 02/02/2017  3:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tbone to your friends list
It seems Mr. Salzberg may have really gotten to Mr. Willis.

I can't help but think this "promotion" is a direct result of this spat.

http://www.PCGS.com/crossover?utm_s...MDIyMzM3NAS2

I'm not sure but I think this is first time I've seen PCGS offer a crossover and NOT charge you if it doesn't cross.
Pillar of the Community
United States
506 Posts
 Posted 02/02/2017  4:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinlover168 to your friends list
Tbone, I believe you're right on both of your statements. When I got the email about the promotion, I also first thought that this might be a result of NGC's announcement, especially NGC's crossover offer a little while ago. Also, having received the PCGS newsletter since late 2013, all PCGS Crossover specials have been more like pay $10 if it doesn't cross or pay $20 whether it crosses or not.
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United States
1189 Posts
 Posted 02/02/2017  8:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add LibertyEagle20 to your friends list
When you cross over can a coin get a higher grade? I wish it wasn't so difficult for the normal collector to submit to PCGS. I have a nice Peace dollar in an ANACS holder that I'd love to get into a NGC or PCGS holder!
Pillar of the Community
United States
4469 Posts
 Posted 02/02/2017  9:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Slider23 to your friends list
Yes, a coin that is crossed over can received a higher grade, but a very low percentages of coins receive a higher grade.
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