What Lies In The Future?

KHatt, well said. I am in the same generation as you and I don't think the hobby is dying out. Bidding is quite strong for a lot of nice items on ebay. I do think it is tougher for organized numismatics, as I am often the youngest by far at my local coin club, which is unfortunate. I think a lot of younger people could be too busy with work/family to devote time, but also tend to spend more time hiding behind computers than interacting with people face-to-face.

Compared to today, where will the price of a complete date decimal set of Canadian coins (say 1858-2017) be in twenty years?
Higher - The more common dates, primarily the ones over the last 50 years, probably won't change much. The key dates and some of the semi-key dates will increase a little more than the rate of inflation.

As sub-set questions (feel free to comment on Maritime and NF):
The same comment as above.

Which series will move higher and which will move lower?
I echo the sentiments of many about the negative outlook for RCM non-circulating products. The nice thing with the $20 for $20 series is that there is a floor to their value, whereas this is not the case for the vast majority of product. We have recently seen Canada Post discount all their excess 2016 inventory by 25%. That still was not enough discount to clear it all out. My philosophy with these products is buy it if you truly like it, not because you hope to make a profit at some point. I wish I knew which series will move higher, than I would load up!

Which key date coins will be a good investment?
It is a crap-shoot. Probably the ones that are most in demand now and have been for the past 40 years.

Will very high grade sets prove profitable?
We have seen prices come down as more have been added to population reports. I would be cautious spending a ton of money on these (key dates aside) thinking that they will appreciate in value even at the rate of inflation.

Will variety coins last pricewise?
Some will, some won't. Newer discovered varieties may have a lot more out there than originally thought.

Lol I just posted this coin at a $1 start bid on ebay a few hours ago.

I think @doubleeagle59 nailed it but I also believe that there are other factors that will impact the overall value.

Supply of high quality coins will increase as collectors ultimately pass on and their heirs liquidate the collections.

Demand will decrease for the reasons noted previously but I want to add/reinforce a couple of things.

@gidjit raises a very valid concern; I think we discount the impact of counterfeits. To date, most counterfeits have been amateur hour. Making a cheap copy using non-standard alloys. Given that even the poorest quality 1948 Canadian SD will garner hundreds of dollars and a reasonable AU or low MS will yield thousands... It makes sense for someone with nefarious intent to invest in proper minting equipment, hire professional die makers, mix the correct silver alloy and mass produce counterfeits that are near impossible to detect. Hey, how do we know that it hasn't happened. We exist in a global marketplace and I recall 20 years ago, it was difficult to get your hands on a AU/MS 1948 SD. Now it is only a matter of coming up with the money... between Heritage, ebay et al. I have been watching with dismay the comments on the Australian boards regarding counterfeit shillings.

Counterfeits will create doubt in the overall marketplace and will inhibit prices climbing and may even collapse a market.

The other thing that is often overlooked is relevance. For most folks alive and all collectors, coins are relevant to daily life. When they lose that relevance, as is occuring with an increasing use of electronic payment methods from tapping cards & phones to e-banking etc., then coins will move to a position of anachronism and ultimately fall out of public awareness altogether.

In the past, horse brasses were used to embellish and augment the necessary draft horse tackle; consequently these were collected and a vibrant trade in collectible horse brasses existed... today, they are odd antiques with a very small and limited marketplace as the draft horse is essentially consigned to history.

One aspect of technology in the late 20th and 21st centuries is that the pace of change is fast and accelerating... I would be surprised to see cash in any form in use by 2050 in the western world. As the use of cash declines, so will the collectible value of cash artifacts (coins & paper) and much like the horse brasses of yesteryear, coin collecting will end up a fringe hobby on the part of a very few collectors. Stamp collecting and associated collection valuations are already in decline.

I agree with @moxking on NCLT... Even today, NCLT is not retaining its issue value with a very few exceptions. The old truism applies that "anything marketed as collectible... isn't".

All of this adds up to a fairly bleak long term outlook for the hobby as an investment vehicle. I took a quick look at the CCN trends for Canadian Silver Dollars from an old copy in 2015 compared to current and at the highest reported quality (MS-65) all values are at best flat and in some cases significantly lower.

Whether this is a consequence of population reports, increased supply, reduced demand, or general availability in a global marketplace the trend is there, albeit only 30 months long and on a single data sample (Canadian SDs).

It has been said many times before and it bears repeating... Spend and collect what interests you from disposable income. Whether it is Doulton Figurines, Horse Brasses, NCLT or circulating coins. Enjoy collecting and the collection you amass.

Don't expect your collection to provide retirement income or even a ROI.

If you insist on investing in coins, limit yourself to bullion and join the throngs of precious metal speculators hoarding their stash and waiting for each percentage rise or fall in gold & silver.

If you look at what PCGS does in terms of services, member club, trade shows, etc. it would seem there is a great business opportunity to expand into Canada. So why haven't they set up shop in Canada?

I collect paper money and find the notion of predicting the future outlook of this hobby intriguing. I think KHat & NumisCat make some salient points on how emerging technologies (paired with online sales/marketing) impacts the coin/paper market. The affects of ebay (& other online auction houses) has been huge too. I can't possibly afford to buy every note I like in GEM UNC so I have always approached this hobby as a collector first, and as a (modest) investor second. If you're the anxious sort who worries about each coin attained as an investment than "buy eclectically @ the absolute best condition you can afford" (as many of you have suggested here). I started 40 years ago as a "dabbler" who squirrelled away a few notes while working part time at a car wash. Around 2001, with ebay, and a lot more disposable income, I became an "average" collector. Lately, I'd have to confess, I've almost entered the realm of "serious" collector. I truly believe most people go through these 3 phases and it takes time (as well as disposable income/time/interest) to pass through these 3 phases.

IMO: I feel readers of this thread have to keep a couple of points in mind:
#1-coins/paper/polymer money is a technology in itself and its highly unlikely that it will be completely scrapped as e-commerce becomes more dominant. So long as the technology stays ahead of the counterfeiters, and people demand a free market, it is likely here to stay. I'm not saying that the threat of all-knowing "big-brother" government isn't non-existent, but at least something (hopefully) in the distant future. Peoples hobbies changes over the years but as long as there's cash- there'll be coin/paper money collectors.

#2-it takes discipline to squirrel away coins/paper money and a certain type of personality. I rarely see women involved in this hobby but this may be changing. When we predict the health of collecting rarer items than you are discussing a niche for serious dedicated collectors who are slightly more intense than your average collector. IMO: for this serious market to grow we really need (younger/female) average collectors to become more hardcore like ourselves (& pass through the 3 phases : - )

#3-keeping #2 in mind, it will take positive population growth, a certain level of wealth and a healthy economy to encourage people to enter the hobby. It is easy to be distracted by the small picture when, in fact, larger forces are probably far more significant. I have heard dealers say that Americans make up a larger portion of Canadian paper money collectors than Canadians. So, if that's the case, a healthy American economy will be a much greater factor influencing the collecting of Canadian paper money. The same principle likely impacts the CDN coin market.

#4-I doubt RCM's main market is the serious CDN coin collector but rather the international market; the grandpas & grandmothers, godfathers, aunts, uncles who don't know what to buy their grand/godsons, nephews, nieces, etc. and some regular CDN coin collector/dabblers who may get attached to a series. These same collectors may even get lured into buying some of the rarer issues but I would suspect that the bulk of the Canada Post silver sells to the relative of the serious to "dabbler." In fact, the opposite may be true ( RCM heat up the market), if a NCLT inspires a dabbler/average collector to become a serious collector! I do happen to believe that the introduction of a commemorative (like the "150" $10) often brings in more average collectors (rather than shrinking # of collectors/or the funds spent on notes).

There is an expression that dealers use when it comes to NFLD coins....



This has been a great thread to read. It speaks to me that there remains a passion for Canadian numismatics, and that is what drives the hobby.

Which is true and like I mentioned in the other tread which I will repost here what you guys should do is try to get them to come to some of the larger Canadian shows. Even if they don't grade on site see if you can get them to accept submissions type thing.

Of course the whole catch 22 is that they don't want to come if there aren't submissions, and people don't want to submit if they don't come.

Seems like there is already at least somewhat of an uproar from many collectors already for the primary grading service being one that completely isolates the north American market and whose holder could be reproduced much easier than PCGS and NGC who have gained world wide acceptance.