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2011 Ladybug Coin Massive Devaluation The RCNA Auction Today

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 Posted 07/13/2021  11:28 am  Show Profile   Check SPP-Ottawa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add SPP-Ottawa to your friends list
It is a rim clip with a large diameter coin, so I think it is almost impossible to tell if it is a curved versus straight clip. And yes, there is a Blakesley effect.

2011-Ladybug-Coin--Massive-Devaluation-The-RCNA-Auction-Today


Here is the obverse side of the clip, with really nice dovetailing on the rims:

2011-Ladybug-Coin--Massive-Devaluation-The-RCNA-Auction-Today
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert Oppenheimer

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 Posted 12/20/2021  11:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add pocket change 50 to your friends list
This was a very stimulating discussion with various points of view and each point has its own merits. This is part of what I look for in the general discussion on the merits of nclt coins! This should be pinned from those of us who first venture into the nclt collecting side of the hobby. I say this with the view to educating the newbie in nclt coins as it's a very different and seductive world, with all the variety from around the world, beckoning from a computer screen. July 1,2012 I was seduced by the coin show on the shopping channel. The first few years I couldn't get enough! These types of discussions would have helped me to narrow my focus more quickly! I also wouldn't have ran out of room so fast either. I tell you, when you have chronic back pain, moving lbs of coins is a hassle! As the coin I want is always at the bottom! It's taken a good 5 year to narrow my nclt coin focus to silver dollars and the silver proof sets! It's actually not far from where I had started with nclt! However, I let myself be seduced by the pages of discussion on owning a hot coin. It's almost like a chemical hit for the brain, much similar to likes on a Forum or Facebook post. I own many non hot coins, as I loved the artistry on the coin! I don't really have many regrets, as I have gotten hours of enjoyment and educational value, as I'm drawn to historical and nature themes. I never thought I ever hear the ladybug coin lose 2/3's of its value of $1500 at one point !!

Maybe the trouble with the deluge of nclt coins is the excess is not getting melted, thus reducing the glut on the market? As circulation coins get reduced over time for one reason or another!! There's no natural predator for the boom in nclt coins! Coupled with the phenomenon of the 21st century pop culture coins! Many are a huge stretch even by my standards! It's interesting to return after a few years break of just pulling out interesting pocket change! Canada really does issue a lot of special quarters! So I never totally stopped, except in buying as much nclt silver coins!! Maybe if the glut of unwanted coins were melted, making some a challenge to find and coupled with quarterly releases of low mintage truly historic commemoratives, it would renew and keep long term interest in this aspect of the hobby?
I'm going to use a food analogy, I'm crazy for cheesecake, however if I dined solely on it for months then years, it wouldn't be long before I couldn't even look at cheesecake. I feel something like this has happened to this area of coin collecting, coupled with the outrageous price tag the mint charges. People like to see a little appreciation or at least the value hold steady, in their discretionary purchases! It leaves a sinking feeling, when I'm 3-6 months prices on the secondary market start to plummet! I feel it's why so many people come and go, in this area of the hobby. The wise ones have learned to have patience and wait. They seldom by mint direct!

I'm surprised after almost 10 years, there's still an active Masters Club , with members at the upper tiers, or even the gold and the level above! As everyone pretty much agrees in time, that expensive piece of artwork is only going to be melt value. So care must be taken to choose wisely and be patient, when deciding at what price point the coin is worth buying.

It was a lot of fun of hearing a person described their excitement at finding a 2007 rare coin/set at an out of the way post office! Waiting to see if there's any potential hot coin in a release. I usually either couldn't afford or like many of the said coins. It still made for some exciting reading! The $ for $ series probably brought in its share of people who would leave the hobby after a few years. I wonder if the long term collector, is a person who started out by finding a cool commemorative coin in their change? Setting each one aside in a jar, then stumbles on to nclt side of the hobby! I have been pulling cool quarters out of change, the years I was inactive on the forum!!
This has been a wonderful and enjoyable discussion ! As it has insights from people who collect for a wide variety of reasons and probably a wide range of income levels and backgrounds. Which makes for a well rounded exploration of a topic!
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107 Posts
 Posted 12/29/2021  11:54 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zhuyuecai to your friends list
Good discussion here. I think there are at least two points worth our notice.

1, there is no natural predator for nclt coins as pointed out by @pocket_change_50. This is the main factor why nclt coins are difficult to keep their value, given that, the mint issue the coins with 267% or its base metal value for silver, and 167% - 200% for gold. Don't mention most of them has very high mintage. Without natural predator to secure the scarcity of those items over time, it's not surprising that their value decreases over time.

2, The art design of a coin. In the example given from the auction, two pink rose coins sold for a fare price, and the rest were not sold. Some coins with outstanding art design are easier to keep their value. Maybe not the issue price, but the market will give a fare price.

Even for investment, I don't think bullion is a good option. Unless you want to keep the coins for years. Many years. In my place, if you buy a 1 oz Maple leaf gold, the dealer ( RCM official one) will sell you with 5 - 10% premium over the metal's market price. If you sold them, then the dealer offers a price with 5 -10% lower than market price a gain. Which means once you buy a bullion, you already lose 10 to 20% of your money. How many years you need to wait for the metal price to go up more than 20% such that you don't lose money? And in Canada, I can't find any place that you can put your gold or silver coins as hedge to apply low interest rate loan (with interest rate close to a normal mortgage loan. Bad liquidity means, once you buy bullion, you are putting that money underground for years and expecting some disaster to happen such that your golds would worth more than company stocks.

Commemorative coin collection is getting close to art collection these days, only those with low mintage, good and meaningful art design coins could maintain their value or even get higher value over time. Maybe this is why some of the extremely expensive gold coins with very small mintage sold out instantly. and you rarely see those coins in the second market. The ones with high mintage would just become sth. like decorations. I think the mint are playing a game that they only release low mintage, low price and good design coins for master club members, so to force you to buy their high mintage poor design coins to maintain your master club level.



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 Posted 01/03/2022  01:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list
Meilleurs Voeux Pour l'annee 2022!! And Best Wishes everyone!

Interesting to see old NCLT posts resurface once in a while. There is no right or wrong when it comes to personal taste, but I think the snowflakes were just amazing. Absolutely ZERO historical value but totally cool (no pun intended).

2011-Ladybug-Coin--Massive-Devaluation-The-RCNA-Auction-Today

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 Posted 01/03/2022  08:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@canadian_coins: Nice to have you drop by - you've been missed! As always, excellent coin image!


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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 Posted 01/03/2022  08:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@zhuyuecal: A few thoughts...

Quote:
there is no natural predator for nclt coins...

The Canadian NCLT market was booming 7-10 years ago, with lots of activity that drove the market price of many coins to artificial highs. The prices were driven by the speculator-segment of the collecting community. It appears that much of this segment has left the Canadian NCLT market (or is at least far less active) and secondary market prices, overall, have dropped as a result; artificial sell-outs (i.e., those driven by speculation vs. active collecting) are no longer prevalent. So, I agree, today's Canadian NCLT hobby has far fewer apparent "predators" than it once did - but it doesn't rule out their return!

Your comments on a dealer's spread regarding bullion buying and selling are interesting. Of course, such spreads are necessary for dealers to stay in business. I only see a problem with this when the spread becomes excessive - the scenario you described is fair to my eyes. I agree with you that most coins should not be considered short-term investments - I tend to not consider them investments at all!



Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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 Posted 01/03/2022  6:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list

Quote:
Even for investment, I don't think bullion is a good option.


I'm always leery when NCLTs are coined as an investment. Sure, nobody likes to lose money. So, if your experience is significantly tilted toward financial rewards, then buying NCLT is probably not the right vehicle. Perhaps an ETN such as SLVO (25% fwd dividend) would provide steady income without the hassle of buying/holding/insuring/selling coins - or bullions.

Of course, just making money takes the fun out of collecting...

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 Posted 01/05/2022  5:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zhuyuecai to your friends list
@comments, honestly, I have more fun to find circulated commemorative coins from coin rolls or daily changes than buying from RCM.
So every time buying from RCM, the expectation to have some financial gain is part of the motivation.
Especially when you see the one I own is sold successfully with a higher price than that I paid to get it.


@canadian_coins, I don't think the purpose of making money would take the fun out of collecting. Just a different way of getting fun.
Just like gambling, I make a guess by whatever algorithm, most of the times I lose, but once I make one good guess, that is also a very exiting moment.
The difference is, it is quite an expensive game :|

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 Posted 01/05/2022  7:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list

Quote:
General rule is anything marketed as collectible usually isn't.


The opposite is also often true: items that were meant to be used are now collectibles. Think of Quaker furniture, Tiffani lamps, business strike 19th century coins, etc.
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 Posted 01/09/2022  2:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dcadon to your friends list
Also - Toys. That were meant to be played with - are now 'collectible' if still in packaging.
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 Posted 01/12/2022  11:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add purelywasted to your friends list
NCLT is interesting, it has pretty much been a breakeven/value losing proposition since 1971, but people still buy.i really wonder how much overvalued inventory is sitting in coin shops.

I think there is some culling when dealers buy at melt-x%, but otherwise I would agree that it largely sits as is. It is too bad the various mints went overboard 7-10 years ago. There is still so much stuff each year.

NCLT somewhat got me into collecting about 10 years ago. If I hadn't made masters club in 2011, I likely wouldn't have purchased any 1912-14 gold which pushed me into collecting. Now I am primarily circulation coins and 1970 or earlier mint products, those prices seem really strong at the moment.

When things started to soften in 2013ish, I dumped most of my nclt at a slight loss, even though I liked some of the coins. Some were profitable, but many were not and I can buy them today at a lower price.

I still have a few sets I like and would like to find a 2012 5 x silver pennies set at a lower cost, and the hunt continues.

Great thread and very interesting.
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 Posted 01/13/2022  07:47 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@purelywasted: Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I always enjoy reading about the perspectives of other collectors.

My Canadian NCLT purchases are fairly limited in variety (>80% silver dollars) but run fairly deep within my area of interest (I have examples of all NCLT SDs from 1971 onward). I've only ever purchased them with an eye towards building a collection, never as an investment.

I still enjoy adding to my SD collection each year with the Mint's new SD issues. As long as the enjoyment continues, and I am able, I likely will continue adding them. I await this year's offering!



Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
Edited by commems
01/13/2022 08:42 am
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 Posted 01/15/2022  7:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add canadian_coins to your friends list
I'm now down to a handful of coins that I plan to sell eventually when the time is right.

My NCLT journey started with the Mint sets back in the 70s. My parents would give me NCLT at Christmas and for my birthdays. I remember getting the $100 1977 and 1978 gold coins (which I eventually sold in 1980 for a massive payout). Obviously, I also collected circulation coins that I eventually sold for silver content as well because the metal content exceeded the numismatic value. So, even at an early age I wasn't really a true collector in the sense that I didn't have any fundamental desire the keep the coins for the long haul. I realize that now. I cared more about the craftsmanship and beauty of a coin rather than its historical value or rarity. I never really had the desire to "fill the hole" or to complete a set. But for some reason, with NCLTs I had to have'm all.

Back in 2000 I began hoarding everything the RCM produced and I was totally committed to fall for gimmicks like the triangular milk coin. With extra spending money I was the perfect RCM NCLT customer.

All that purchasing eventually became a problem... both in terms of storage and insurance - and also financially... when I couldn't afford the pure $350 coins and platinum sets anymore. In 2012 I probably had >100K USD stashed away in metal.

The sheer volume I had basically took half the space of our walk-in closet. I had a fireproof safe for some of the most expensive coins which was packed to the max. Let's not kid ourselves folks, the idea that collectors keep their coins in safety deposit boxes can't be real. Some of the NCLT cases are larger than your typical box at your local bank. Perhaps you can have a few rare coin slabs or gold coins, maybe. But the entire collection? No way. So that became a tangible risk if word got out that we had such valuables in hour home.

Around that time frame ~2012 we basically became un-insurable despite the alarm system, safe, etc. And at the same time, I realized the RCM was going nuts... so for me everything flipped mentally. The word was 'Sell-sell-sell' ASAP. I became emotionally detached and luckily, I made several good sales, particularly gold coins, and the ladybug coin! In a 4-year span I sold almost everything. It does take some time if you want to sell at a reasonable price. I'd like to say that I made a profit, but I don't think I did. With inflation, insurance, and seller fees I probably lost quite a bit. But we paid off the house and established a 529 (college fund) for our kids.

That money would have grown far more if I had invested in the market... for sure. But money can't buy some of the good NCLT memories.
Edited by canadian_coins
01/15/2022 8:42 pm
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 Posted 01/16/2022  11:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add commems to your friends list
@canadian_coins: Thanks for sharing your story. You certainly ventured much farther down the NCLT path than I ever have!

Based on the images you've shared here in the past, you had quite an impressive collection at one point!


Collecting history one coin or medal at a time! (c) commems. All rights reserved.
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1360 Posts
 Posted 01/16/2022  1:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Dcadon to your friends list
Canadian_Coins said:
Quote:
The word was 'Sell-sell-sell' ASAP. I became emotionally detached


And with that comment - the entire population of CCF started selling off their collections of NCLT and the bottom dropped out.

I enjoyed your story, and regrettably, wish I had taken your route about 10 years ago. Up until then, my story mirrored yours from 'gifts' to collecting... but I never 'sold' any.
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