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 Replies: 18 / Views: 2,623 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
I find it hard to believe that this few being found would have much of a impact on the price of the coins. I know 111 seems like allot but I am sure there are more collectors wanting these coins than that
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Really? How many people do you know who are collecting $5 gold pieces by date?
This is why I asked if anyone had the numbers. If a coin is rare because there are 10 known, and suddenly 111 more become available in the same grade, what do you think that does to the price?
When the Redfield hoard came on the market, the buyer got them for around 65% back of bid, according to good faith estimates. I would hope these didn't sell for more than about 20% of retail.
There will be some serious national advertising put behind these by the "mint" in Minnesota.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Quote:
When the Redfield hoard came on the market, the buyer got them for around 65% back of bid, according to good faith estimates. But the buyer of the Redfield hoard was the only one of the bidders on the hoard who actually knew exactly what the hoard contained. The other knew in rough general terms what the hoard contained, but the winning bidder was the firm that did the actual inventory for the estate. |
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
True, but that was nowhere near ad many of any given date flooding the market. As someone else mentioned, this is more like a couple bags (I think that was what was involved) of 1903o dollars coming on the market, and the retail dropped from $1500 to $40.
Look at how poorly the shipwreck coins have done when that big supply was added to the market.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
I shamelessly ripped census figures from Heritage-
1911-S MS63 mintage 1,416,000
PCGS
135 with 26 higher
NGC
52 with 21 higher
1916-S MS63 mintage 240,000
PCGS
178 with 90 higher
NGC
75 with 67 higher
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
So this more or less doubles the existing MS supply of 11s. Double the supply of anything from milk to gold overnight, and what happens to the price? Quote:
And even with this many suddenly entering the market, there are far more buyers for them than the available quantity," said Garrett.
Sure there are (what else would you expect him to say?) In 25 years of running a retail coin shop, I've had thousands of buyers for an SVDB. Not many willing to put up the cash, tho. But I'll bet if they were ten bucks, I could sell them by the roll. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1984 Posts |
Which begs the question: why announce this?
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
The coins are in strong hands. They're figuring the promotional possibilities outweigh the donside. Besides, they'd show up in the census within a week anyway.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
Quote:
So this more or less doubles the existing MS supply of 11s.
Huh, how do you figure that? The census numbers I listed were only for MS63 and higher, not all MS grades. 19 MS63s from this hoard is only about 15% of the total in MS63 graded so far only by PCGS and there are still more in higher grades. I am sure regrades have skewed the census figures a bit but I would have a hard time believing it would be off by any more than 20 or 25%. The numbers from this hoard are significant but nowhere near double the affected population of MS coins, which is over 1200 1911-S coins(MS61 and higher) and over 1000(MS62 and higher) 1916-S coins from combined PCGS/NGC populations. It is also interesting to note that Heritage has not sold a MS63 1911-S since March 2007 and a MS63 1916-S since June 2008 and the next one before that was January 2007. That tells me that the coins that make up the current census are locked up in long term collections and there is no supply floating around so I would bet that these will be quickly snatched up at solid prices. Edited by biokemist6
10/15/2008 2:47 pm
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Just for the sake of argument, what would happen to the price of any coin if overnight 15% more of them became available?
Keep in mind that the figures for the hoard are accurate, while the figures you quote are high. The rarer and more valuable a coin is, the more likely it's been cracked out and resubmitted. For all we know, 50 of the MS63s are actually only five coins that have been resubmitted ten times each, hoping to get a MS64. I have never heard of a crack out artist sending in the old holders to get them removed from the census. Sure would be neat for someone to send in about ten million dollars worth of empty holders, tho.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2254 Posts |
I see what you're saying bigfredd, but while percentages are "fact", they can lend you to sway one way or another until you know what the percentage is based off of. 15% of 200 million would be saturation. 15% of 100 is a nice find in my opinion, and will not drop prices drastically if at all.
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Valued Member
United States
207 Posts |
I remember reading about this a few weeks ago. I wondered what happened to the original owner of the hoard? Thats a lot of coins!
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Valued Member
Canada
464 Posts |
How can I find out more about these government auctions? Where they are held, how often, etc.. I'm quite sure we don't have such things in Canada, though I could be wrong.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts |
This will surely impact the market for these coins, at least in the near term.
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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
What "government auctions"? "Government" covers a lot of territory.
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Replies: 18 / Views: 2,623 |
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Posted 10/15/2008 08:35 am
