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Replies: 63 / Views: 9,310 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5191 Posts |
The "problem" of course is that, yes, you can sell GLD shares and use to proceeds to buy bullion, but most likely there will be a "premium" for bullion. So you will always be "running behind". And what are you gonna do if the "premium" keeps growing?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
I just noted that today NumisEd. APMEX is out of low grade US gold eagles, leaving MS61 & 62 coins as the entry point at 25% over bullion. The premium grows by forcing bullion buyers into numismatic grades. If GLD is really holding 36.5 million ounces, why can't they satisfy the physical market for their shareholders?
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
Edited by thq 02/01/2021 7:38 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5191 Posts |
Edited by NumisEd 02/01/2021 7:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Effectively this would destroy the coin hobby; were spot to hit $1000/oz. Not that I think it would go anywhere near that.
For one thing electronics would become unsaleable just to cover the cost of the silver in each unit.
As for coins; If silver hit that "magic" $1000/oz then Morgans would be about $800 each with a just a small premium. Common 1964 dimes would be selling at about $80 each. Forget numismatic value. In the last great silver run numismatic value, except for the absolute keys went through out the door.
If you have $800 to spend, do you buy a Morgan that you know is probably going to go down like the Titanic at some point, or do you buy an 09VDB-S? 1913-S type II Buff? How about going into Large cents? Of course this will cause all these prices to rise to a level that casual collectors will be squeezed out of.
In sum if you are out to get rich...this might work, but the likelyhood of every reaching these levels is unlikely.
If these levels are reached it will tank the economy and the resultant inflation would wipe away your gains.
And; it will adversely effect the hobby.
At my shop we are still buying but once it hits...probably 32, we are out. We fully expect it to plunge hard once a certain goal has been met. I'm not even convinced that this reddit group is not being snookered into making money for the big boys.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
8938 Posts |
Okay I'm surprised nobody has said it so I will. It's impossible to short squeeze a physical metal. The way that the $GME play is working is that they're buying every single share possible so that there are no shares for the hedge funds to buy. If you wanted to short silver you'd have to replicate the same with physical silver which is impossible.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
Aside from the bullion on APMEX, I looked over the usual sources for metal scrap on the bay. My usual go-to of underpriced sterling flatware, kitschy nut trays and candy bowls has disappeared. As with coins, all the high-end merchandise is still available.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1333 Posts |
I don't know where this Purchase SLV rumour came from but from what I remember it was made maybe on thursday last week. I have been watching this whole situation closely cause I realise this is a truely a good opportunity to make some nice money, for what is mostly a hobby for the most of us collectors. Warning to most of us here don't get swept up in the craze you don't make money by buying at the top and selling at the bottom. The Reddit may seem like ordinary people making share purchase, that is incorrect they know their stuff especially those whom moved first. This was a very technical short squeeze of "GME", some understood that the short side was held in part to a hedge fund call Melvin capital (later got an liquidity injection from Citadel Capital (market maker and a investment company)) , however the majority of the other side was held by Scion Asset management. Citadel is net long SLV and the Reddit already know this as this is to them distraction or at least some of them already know this. Citadel Capital might be trying to pump up their other assets so that they can run and cover their other losses (reasonable as American Airlines a company that citadel is also long went up with no reason when GME went down) Felt I need to say this even tho I have an interest to see silver Rocket to the moon, it help to be ground and realistic about anything in life least to get sucker in and are force to become the bag holder.    $100 USD an 1OZ   
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1333 Posts |
@GrapeCollects partial correct, however we know it can't happen exactly to the same extend that GME squeeze happened I think central banks might come in to the picture. Doesn't mean not want someone to try :D Hunt bro's
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1333 Posts |
@fistfulladirt I believe some can cash settle however that's not all of them that's why some larger clients are redeeming the physical on some exchanges haaha (they are pull metal off the exchanges but are being restricted in term of volume and timing)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I'm not sure everyone understands that these contracts are leveraged to a ridiculas degree. It is a physical impossibility to cash all these contracts in. Someone here probably knows, but years ago it was, I believe, 1/1000 an oz per paper ounce?
In other words when a company issue a contract for 10000 ounces, they don't actually buy 10,000 ounces to cover it.
If people know exactly how the futures market worked they would probably get the pitchforks out! ( pun intended)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4333 Posts |
Phew! Back into the $27 mark. I'd prefer not to see even $100 silver. A slow gradual climb long term for my goals.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors... Roll hunting since '77 Dirt fishing since '72
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2637 Posts |
Quote: Unless WallstreetBets demands delivery of all the "silver" they are buying, nothing will change. Massive entry into PSLV, which is not just paper contracts backed by smoke and mirrors.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2637 Posts |
Quote: If you have $800 to spend, do you buy a Morgan that you know is probably going to go down like the Titanic at some point, or do you buy an 09VDB-S? 1913-S type II Buff? How about going into Large cents? Of course this will cause all these prices to rise to a level that casual collectors will be squeezed out of. Perhaps you buy a MS 65 cc which has lost nearly all of its numismatic value. Last time we were in the $30s for silver, I was buying proof Franklins, Colombian and Washington/Carver halves, and silver jewelry.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Arkie, the last time it was in the 30s you would not believe what was coming in the shop! How about a OBW 1928 SLQ? OBW Carver halves. OBW Franklins, Washington quarters in the 50s, more proof sets than I could keep count of. Bust coinage that had not seen the light of day in decades. I had an old couple come in and the wife MADE her husband sell his CBH wittman for melt. To be honest I did not handle that deal as I would have given him a premium but my partner can be rather greedy. I can't honestly tell you how many rolls of 60s dimes, Quarters and halves walked in....and walked right back out to the refiner. How many modern commems did the same. My partner was tearing apart proof sets and dumping them in the pot, then throwing the cents and nickels into the cash register. It was absolutely insane. Greed has so affected his mind that he almost cut up a complete set of cameo 58 proofs! Each night I pulled coins from the pot MS mercs, early rosies, 60 Franklin DDO, MS WLH, and believe it or not XF and AU barbers! I remember pulling an absolutely gorgeous 1916 P-S-D set of WLHs from the pot that later graded in the mid MS range. Lol, that led to some interesting conversation as I asked where the rest of that set was! My partner when he saw, and realized he was not checking the dates, what they were almost lost it. He sure did want them back, but our buisness agreement was pretty specific and he had to take the loss, something he still complains about till this day. For a long time I kept a tray of the choicest coins that I salvaged. His son said he hated that display till the day I took it home. My lord he was even melting any morgan that was less than a "slider". Including a 94 and 95-O in XF. Interestingly we have had little selling, and a lot of buying. In fact we are just about sold out of our "junk" silver stock. Our cull tray of Peace and Morgans that not that long ago were selling at $16 each are now selling for $30 each and we have sold through our first bag!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3343 Posts |
One day later the bloom is off the metals boom. All of a sudden APMEX has stock on junk gold eagles again at 10% over melt. Yesterday's flash 25% premium is over.
"Two minutes ago I would have sold my chances for a tired dime." Fred Astaire
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Replies: 63 / Views: 9,310 |
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