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Silver Is Crashing! Oooh, The Humanity

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Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  1:23 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
I'm pretty certain, but I could be wrong, but isn't the largest buyer of US securities the Federal Reserve?


The largest buyer of newly issued gubmint debt is now the FED.

The largest holder of US gubmint debt is China. You have to remember, they may have bought treasuries ten years ago that won't be due for another 20 years.
Valued Member
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  2:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Geardaddy to your friends list

Quote:
Well, you should. These guys are the masters of the investing world. By studying their activities, we can all learn more about successful investing. Knowledge IS power, my friend... so... watch, learn, gain power, and BECOME one of those rich guys!



Actually Ed, I agree with you. I think someone else made the comment about not caring about what Warren does.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  8:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list
Interesting that Mexico would refuse USD, considering NAFTA. We'll take your products, but not your money?

What's the exchange rate of USD:Amero?
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  8:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
The Chinese government continues to buy massive quantities of U.S. Treasuries.

+272B year over year change.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...ents/mfh.txt


True, but notice they've been net sellers since 10/10.
Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  8:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Libertad to your friends list
I don't think it would be easy to just dump that much silver onto a few buyers. It would have to be gradual. An overnight trade like that would be unwise for anybody, buyer or seller. It WOULD have to go for very very cheap for it to sell. Think about why such a move would be made by the seller. What kind of confidence is THAT in any market? And then those select few would compete and drive the price back up, so I think the original seller would want in on that future action.

> Such a move would make the price plummet, but I don't think it's in a big player's interest to do so.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/19/2011  10:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Not this guy 100% into the pm's, lol!


What happens to your portfolio if PMs crash?

Putting all your eggs in one basket only is wise if you have total control of the basket.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2011  12:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Actually Ed, I agree with you. I think someone else made the comment about not caring about what Warren does. - GearDaddy

Yeah, I have that problem all the time. "Hey, it wasn't me! It was another guy who LOOKED like me!".
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2011  12:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
Re: PMs in IRAs / 401Ks

I've never heard of a 401K plan that had PMs in it, other than as part of a mutual fund that invested a small fraction of its money in a copper / silver / gold producer. Not saying that this doesn't happen but it is pretty rare if it happens at all.

IRAs are another matter. People have a great deal of flexibility as to what they can invest in with an IRA. The term "self-directed" as applied to an IRA seems a bit confusing, though. AFAIK, all IRAs are self-directed. At least, no one ever gave me any investing advice about what I could buy for my IRA. I suppose that if it was in a limited partnership or some kind of annuity that would be one thing. In general, though, we can buy quite a few things for an IRA. ASEs and AGEs are perfectly acceptable. These are bullion coins with just a bit of numismatic value to them. Coins that are high in numismatic value or of foreign origin would not be acceptable in an IRA. Don't know about Maple leaf coins. The US and Canada have a pretty cozy relationship on some things and this may or may not be one of them.

See the following URL for IRA guidelines:

http://www.journalofaccountancy.com...nvesting.htm
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2011  04:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
Bonds is a bubble sitting on a needle waiting to pop. FAR from safe!


If you feel the gubmint will eventually pay the piper for all the phunny munny they're printing, especially in the form of high-to-hyper inflation, there are two possible outcomes for bonds, and both suck.

1) We owe you $1000? We have no money, sorry about your luck. How about we roll over your investment and pay you back 50 years from now?

2) We owe you $1000? No problem, here you go. Sorry about the fact that $1000 would buy 20 ounces of silver when you loaned us the money, but will only buy two ounces now.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/20/2011  8:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
And the winner is... behind Door #2!

Bill Gross is nobody's dummy. The fact that he sold off ALL of the US Treasuries in his giant PIMCO bond fund is hugely significant. If he won't own them for his clients, why the heck should any of us? He knows a LOT more about bonds than we do and he has well and truly left the building.

While US Treasuries have their own set of problems, bonds in general have a lot of problems too. The biggest of them just could be the fact that US interest rates are at rock bottom and really only have one place to go... UP! When that happens (not if), bonds of all kinds will get hammered.

Instead of bonds, consider short term money in Ginny Mae funds. Watch these very carefully, though, as rising interest rates will hammer these too. They are very liquid, though, and can be bought / sold quickly. For the next 3-4 months, though, they should be OK and pay better than CDs, money markets, and short-term bonds.

Longer term money can go into dividend paying stocks or the mutual funds that buy them. A lot of stocks out there are paying dividends of 4% or so, which is better than the 10-year US Treasury bond. Some pay even higher than that and also offer some upside potential via growth / price appreciation. I would FAR rather have $50k in 4-5 dividend paying blue chips or utilities than in ANY bond. The time to buy bonds is when interest rates are high and the Fed is leaning towards cutting them.
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2011  02:43 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list

Quote:
While US Treasuries have their own set of problems, bonds in general have a lot of problems too. The biggest of them just could be the fact that US interest rates are at rock bottom and really only have one place to go... UP! When that happens (not if), bonds of all kinds will get hammered.


For the benefit of those who don't understand how this works, a simple example:

A $1000 bond paying 1% interest (a year) for 20 years pays $10 interest a year, and the $1000 principle on maturity.

If new bonds pay 2% interest, a buyer has two options: Buy a new $1000 bond and get $20, or buy two of the old ones that only pay $10 each.

If you can't hold on to that old bond until it's due, the only way to sell it is to take $500*, so the % return is the same as on the new, higher-interest bond.

*In practice, you'll get more than $500, since the buyer will eventually get the full $1000 principle, regardless of what he paid you for the bond. Invest $1000, get $500 = hammered.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2011  9:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list
Well said, Fred. That was succinct and accurate.
Valued Member
Canada
497 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2011  10:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add west- canuk to your friends list
Just a thought from someone trying to get a handle on the silver/PM angle in respect to COMEX increasing margin requirements for silver futures. Since this now makes buying futures more expensive/difficult, won't this make physical silver's current price per ounce more realistic and less likely to be manipulated by the likes of financial institutions ?
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2011  11:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list
Financial institutions play with imaginary money, so it won't affect them at all. It affects the little guys, who are required to have real money in their accounts.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 05/23/2011  11:10 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Since this now makes buying futures more expensive/difficult, won't this make physical silver's current price per ounce more realistic and less likely to be manipulated by the likes of financial institutions ?

Yes, that is possible. One BIG problem with the silver market, though, is that it is the banks and the speculators who run the show. Sometimes, these are one and the same. I don't know what the break-down is among banks, speculators, industry, and private citizens as buyers of silver but suspect that it is the banks and speculators first, industry second, and citizens last... and probably by wide margins.

There have been many complaints out there by people who supposedly know what they are talking about that the silver market is prone to manipulation. I don't know whether or not that has occurred but suspect that it has. Some of these people have complained about this to the US federal government but have not received any action on it about which I have heard. Is it possible that the feds are in bed with the banks and with the banks being one of the BIG players in this market have prevailed upon their government stooges to do their bidding while they continue to loot and pillage the silver market? Heaven forbid!
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