"Best Value" Point In A Series?

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Originally posted by SFDukie

I'll start by answering my own question- I think that a complete set of Franklins can be amassed in AG for about $90. One could, if patient put together an AU set with good eye appeal for not too much more (I may stand corrected, I'm speculating here) for say twice that (180) perhaps even less. The same hypothetical patient buyer might put togther a set in MS 63 for what, 500-650?

It would doubtless be much prettier to do the latter, but the "value point" might arguably be AU to low UNC.

OK folks, fire away. If it's easy to do so, put in set prices, or prices for individual coins. Again, I recognize that it is likely more fun, and finacially rewarding to put together this hypothetical set in the Speemeisters PF 66 grade...
Morgan Fred- your thoughts on Morgan Value point?
Don

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(To quote Henry Fonda, the bad guy in Once Upon A Time In The West, "Well, since you called me by name..." (that's when he shot the little boy)...

Don, if I understand your question, you're looking for the cutoff point in grade where a particular coin isn't in too much demand, so may be purchased for a relatively small sum as measured against the next higher grade wherein the cost would rise sharply.

I'm not certain this may be applied to Morgans since certain dates with certain mints are in hot demand across the board in all grades and there are so may mint-dates in which this cutoff point is either very low or very high in grade. For example, all Carson City mint dates are generally in more demand in all grades including the lowest grades than the non-CC Morgans, with a number of exceptions (e.g. 1893S, 1894, 1895). Many/most of the non-CCs may be obtained for just slightly over bullion in AG or G condition, but a complete AG/G Morgan series would be very costly if the CCs are included, especially the 1889CC. Then, of course, the rare 1895 was minted in Proof only with a G-4 going for about 15K, if available at all.

But, using your example with Franklins and moving up the grade scale, this isn't so easily done with Morgans since their history of storage, disposal, and melting is so erratic from mint-date to mint-date. However, there is very generally a sharp jump in value from AU to Mint State in many mint-dates; e.g. 1886S is quite common in all circulated grades, but more than doubles in value from AU-58 to MS-60. But, this generality doesn't hold across the board for the series with many on a simple upward value slide through all the circulated grades and only a slight value increase going into MS-60 from AU-58. In other words, for some Morgans, the value increases gradually all up the grading scale while for others, there is indeed a "value point" (using your term) where value increases sharply. For some mint-dates, this value point isn't seen until MS-64 or MS-65 below which nice coins may be obtained for a "reasonable" sum, e.g. 1878 8TF: MS-64 @ 465, MS-65 1500.

I'm still not sure I answered your question or perhaps I'm too close to Morgans and look at them with too much individualization, but this is just my first blush.

I think when I did my set of Franklins it cost me about $120--they range from F-BU+...
As for my PF66 set---it is just something I started...I had about 3 PF66 Franklins and I said...It would be fun to try and do a whole set in PF66..I'm about half way done now!!

Speedy

Don,
I think Fred is spot on with answer as it pertains to Morgans and likely many other series. Franklins being considered "Modern Coinage" tend to have less variation in price points until you get up in the MS66-67 range. At any rate I have read year after year that most people collect in the VF to XF range. I'm sure economics and availability play a roll in this statistic. Given that consideration, I think collecting in the AU range in most series gives you the most "bang for the buck" so to speak. Most coins have good eye appeal in these grades, are fairly affordable and seem to hold their value and/or appreciate. If you get a chance pick up a few issue's of "Coin Values" and look at the Trends page. They list many types and compare in the long and short term how they have grown in market value in circulated grades vs. uncirculated. I hope this helps. Great post, it got me thinking!!!

Just learned that David Bowers uses the term "optimal collecting grade"
Doubtless many of you are familiar with the concept, but here is how someone else decribed the term:
Optimal Collecting Grade. Simply put, an “OCG� coin is the finest grade available for any given date that is still lovely to behold yet highly affordable for the mainstream collector. Let’s say that a certain date is valued at $350 in choice MS-64, but at gem MS-65, the very next grade up the scale, the value jumps to $1,750. In our opinion, the MS-64 coin is the “OCG� coin, as many collectors can afford that grade without “breaking the bank,� while many would have to “stretch� the budget to afford the MS-65 gem coin. Simply put in today’s terms, the “OCG� coins give today’s collectors the most “bang for the buck!

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Originally posted by SFDukie

Just learned that David Bowers uses the term "optimal collecting grade"
Doubtless many of you are familiar with the concept, but here is how someone else decribed the term:
Optimal Collecting Grade. Simply put, an “OCG� coin is the finest grade available for any given date that is still lovely to behold yet highly affordable for the mainstream collector.

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Well, don't get too hung up on David Bower's Optimal Collecting Grades. From his Morgan Red Book, some of his Morgan OCGs can be a little steep for us peasants. For example, his OCG for an 1889CC Morgan is MS-63 which weighs in at 20K to 30K dollars while his OCG is VF-20 for the 1893-S (@5K) and 1893-O is MS-63 (@5K to 6.5K). 1895? OCG Proof 65 @ 50K to 65K. Most of the rest of the non-key date OCGs, with exceptions are more reasonable, i.e. less than $1000.

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Originally posted by national dealer

Q. David Bowers is one of the most pleasant and knowledgable men I have ever met. He works in a manner that is only for the collector. His approach is one that is very good. While his "must have" list will be out of the range of most, his logic is very sound. If anyone followed this advice you would be hard pressed not to come out ahead.
Now you have to take into consideration of what is affordable. While spending 20 or 30 grand seems a bit much for some, to others it is like spending 20 or 30 dollars. Coins reach many different types of people because there really is something for everyone.

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Hi ND,
Thanks as usual for the input and observations. Hope you're getting back to normal.
Yes, affordability is the problem. Trying to balance enjoyment with financial concerns, I'm coming to realize that I shouldn't count on anything but enjoyment out of my coins, and perhaps enjoyment for others in the future-unless I'm willing to only buy a high grade coin every other year or less often- and then it wouldn't be fun...

Kudos to "NationalDealer" I think you are one of the good guys as well!!! Mike

Why still buy the best grade that you can afford? That is relatively simple. You will be happier with your purchase in the long run. Let's face it, most collectors settle for a coin simply because it is there in front of them. They end up buying 10 coins for $100 instead of 1 coin for $100. As far as buying a coin when the grade cannot be distinguished between the two, I would suggest buying whichever coin appealed to you. Don't buy numerical grades. With a large spread as the one longnine placed, the MS-65 will always outperform the other, so investors would do better to buy the higher valued coin.

Longnine, the old advice still works today. It doesn't mean that you have to follow it. I know that most dealers simply quote the same old advice over and over again because they just don't know better. Today's collectors have much more info at their disposal, yet most do not put in any effort to learn any of it. They want simple answers to hard questions. So dealers revert back to the simplest answers that they know. This doesn't make it wrong, just out of date. As far as not being able to tell the difference between a MS-64 and MS-65, at least you know, and that will save you trouble in the long run.