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 Replies: 531 / Views: 78,396 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1005 Posts |
Welcome to ccf.
If you've taken time to read through this thread you've put in enough time to be an expert on 1932 nickels.
Yours looks like a winner! Far 2 by the pic you've posted.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
Quote:
Like this variety is now listed in the trends of CCN, I see that the rarity of this variety is now officially recognized. The variety is recognized. Trends keeps claiming they report trends, not establish them. So, any price in Trends represents their opinion of market conditions, not any kind of official recognition of rarity. AFAWK there are 2000 of them buried in your, or several other people's, secret garden, and it is merely a mildly scarce variety worth 1/10 of the current prices. Too many suspicious posts to know what they heck is going on, right now. |
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Valued Member
 Canada
402 Posts |
dialog_gvf - Your commentaries seem to me like " Gratuitous assumption " : it's not difficult to say : " ... there are 2000 of them...", why not 20,000 ?
But, after more than four years with this data's search, on several sites, I believe that the trend is firm concerning the rarity of the variety Far 2. In next years, we will be able to see still more clearly, with supply and demand, for this variety.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
2000 was a number pulled out of my tush. It represents "many more" while still being a smallish number for a market. I sure hope 2000 isn't enough for every collector of 5c to have one.
Why not 20000? Because I can't see how that many could possibly be out there. We are very likely dealing with a single die, evidence being to repurposed specimen die.
The 1906 25c small crown is a similar head scratcher for why it took so long to be discovered. But there sure are a lot of junk silver showing up of that. $1800 G-4 trends is a lot of incentive.
It takes time, publicity and high prices to get people to go through their hoards. At this point I am not sure what percentage of collectors even know about it.
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
After the last update in the trends of CCN ( end of january ) for the variety " 5 cents 1932 Far 2 ", I have noted, from new members of coincommunity and numicanada, the following data : - 1557 new data for the variety Near 2
- 5 new data for the variety Far 2.
So, today the result is :
40/6112 = 0.65 % for the variety Far 2
6072/6112 = 99.35 % for the variety Near 2.
Thanks to all members that have take time to send us these new data  |
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New Member
Canada
31 Posts |
Quote:
So, that's the end of my request for data. I suppose this thread is sort of like surfboarding to you... there is always a wave...  Edited by Prismatic Spray
02/05/2014 09:36 am
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
Prismatic Spray,
If you take few minutes to read on this thread you can see 4550 data in the previous update for this trend.
Today, we have 6112 data.
Finally, I know that some collectors are interested by the evolution of this trend (information). If you are not interested, you pass to an other topic.
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
I receive 129 new data, but only for the variety Near 2.
The trend is now : 40/6241 = 0.64 % for the variety Far 2.
Thanks to the members of some sites for these new data
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
New data from Numicanada:
- 1 coin Far 2
- 87 coins Near 2.
So, today the trends is : 41/6329 = 0.65 % for the variety Far 2.
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
On ebay today, you can see :
- 31 coins of 5 cents 1926 Far 6
and only
- 1 coin of 5 cents 1932 Far 2.
What did you think about this 
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Moderator
 Canada
10458 Posts |
Saw a collector at Nuphilex this past weekend with 10 of them in his coin binder, the best one was AU-50. He also bought the one I had for sale in F-12.
"Discovery follows discovery, each both raising and answering questions, each ending a long search, and each providing the new instruments for a new search." -- J. Robert OppenheimerContent of this post is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses...0/deed.en_USMy eBay store
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
How much?
I wonder if it is possible to estimate a total population of a common date coin by the Trends value of a mid-grade? Within a factor of two, I suspect the crowd sourced market is pretty efficient.
Seems 6241 would be a mighty small total remaining population for a common date. Or the collector population is pathetic.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1984 Posts |
The statistical issues on the data in this thread have been extensively discussed. However, if one did have a true random sample of 6241 coins, the population data derived therefrom would be extremely accurate.
Deriving any kind of scarcity from trends values doesn't seem very sensible. If that were the case, then you would expect trends values to move in lock step for all coins over time, which they obviously do not. Trends data reflect the current balance of supply and demand...that is all. There are many coins in very short supply that have low trends values because there is low demand......like SPP's beloved (but otherwise unloved?) nickel dollars.
If you went by trends, you would assume that a 1948 dollar (trending $1500 in AU50) is about as scarce as a 1872H 10 cents (trending $1650 in AU50). But the 2013 ICCS population report (a flawed document but still perhaps the best source of information on relative scarcity) indicates that there are 835 48 dollars at AU50 or above but only 27 of the 1872H 10 cents. All trends tells you is that far more people care about high grade dollars than high grade Victorian 10 cent coins.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1581 Posts |
I wasn't talking about deriving scarcity, rather the opposite. I was talking about deriving an estimate of the population of a common variety from the Trends price for a common grade.
> All trends tells you is that far more people care about high grade dollars than high grade Victorian 10 cent coins.
Not if you look historically (i.e. trends :). The 1872H is about 2x inflation over the last 40 years, while the 1948 is down 25% over the same period.
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Valued Member
Canada
402 Posts |
The trend above, under date of the 03/14/2014, is the last on this topic.
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Replies: 531 / Views: 78,396 |
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Posted 01/31/2014 3:05 pm
