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 Replies: 16 / Views: 2,112 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1026 Posts |
Well I get an investment news letter daily and this morning they were predicting in a couple months gold will drop to maybe $1,000.00 he said sell now and buy it back when it drops.
These people are usually correct in there predictions but myself I find it hard to believe this one? Just do not see how anything can change to make gold drop that much they did say in the long run gold will go up through the roof.
What do you think will gold drop in the next couple months to $1,000.00?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1026 Posts |
Who wrote it?
Stansberry & Associates
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
Maybe it will, but all my gold is in pre-1933 US gold coins so no worries, I'm hedged via metal value and collector value!
I doubt the 2 month time period- Euro zone is not getting fixed in 2 months. And if Europe suffers, we do to.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Sounds like he's setting himself up to be right no matter what happens. If gold goes higher he predicted that, if gold takes a big fall he predicted that too. Not saying he's wrong or right, but keep in mind what he's selling (a newsletter).
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
4618 Posts |
If a giant meteor of solid gold falls to earth, (and doesn't kill us all) then the price will drop.
If all the gold mines dry up tomorrow, then the price will go up.
Anything else is just guessing based on what has happened in the past and might or might not happen.
If the person who said it can get enough people to think that it's going to happen then it will. If they were correct 100% of the time, they wouldn't need to tell anyone anything. They would be so rich that they didn't need to do anything but buy or sell when they wanted some extra cash.
ANA ID: 3203813 - CONECA ID: N-5637 Clean a coin that may be worth collecting? Please DON'T! When in doubt, leave it dirty!! 
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Valued Member
United States
362 Posts |
I can definately see the price of gold dropping, but in a couple months? I dont think so...
The debt ceiling was just raised, the economy is still doing bad and very uncertain...I think maybe in a year or so we will see a drop
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5833 Posts |
I can't see it base on one source, there's so many newsletters out there selling their forecast, just gives you their predictions.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
I don't know what the market will do. I will make the observation that IMO most people see the price of gold changing, up or down, on the old "Supply and Demand" model. The reality is that the price of gold is tied to the spot market; which has very little to do with real supply and demand. A case in point; every year for the last 5 years there has been an net surplus in silver, and yet the price keeps going up and up. Secondly the commodities are run by very sharp individuals whose sole purpose is the creation of wealth. And that creation has, at times been done by driving the market up as much as possible and then shorting the market. Billions have been made that way. It can be fascinating watching the bulls give reasons to go long. The economy is great! Buy Gold! The economy is bad! Buy Gold! There is a butterfly in in Libya! Buy Gold! Gold will go in the direction of the big players that want to make the most money. I do agree that physical gold is the way to go, and coins are the best hedge in that regard as they will always hold some value vis a vis paper which can be worthless in some scenarios.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Quote:
A case in point; every year for the last 5 years there has been an net surplus in silver Do you have a source for that info? Because I've seen a different stat on that.  What I've seen is that there is no surplus at all now, we use all that is mined and if not for recycling we would be running a deficit. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
Sounds to me from everything I've read that silver has more of a shortage every year and the future holds the same projection from here on out. I don't have a lot of silver so I don't have a dog in the fight. No reason for me to add anything to make myself feel better. There will be a shortage every year and there will eventually be no source of recyclables to meet demand. What happens then. A magical surplus from Heaven?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
For stats see: http://www.silverinstitute.org/supp...d.php#demandFor a discussion of "Implied Net Investment" see: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/er...silver-issue What it boils down to is that when there is more supply than demand it is ASSUMED that there is something somewhere that they missed, and that number is assumed to be equal to Supply minus Demand. Thus ensuring that every year Supply equals demand. However; just talk to some of the major refiners. The one in Jackson Ohio is not taking new customers. And many of his current customers are on back order. Remember that these refiners have to actually sell to somebody! And since their traditional customers are across the board cutting back on production ( except coins!) Its smoke and mirrors; nothing more. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Yes but we ALL know what happens when one assumes something.  I find it interesting that in their figures, supply ALWAYS equals demand, whatever it might be. Apparently, there is no way for supply and demand not to be in perfect balance. In the REAL world, however, imbalance between supply and demand is not at all unusual. Excess supply depresses prices as those who have it cut prices to move it. A supply deficit raises prices as consumers bid up the price to ensure their supply. Considering that both gold and silver prices are relatively strong right now, that would argue in favor of demand exceeding supply to some extent, with prices being bid higher as a result. |
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Valued Member
United States
228 Posts |
GoThunder:
You are correct. If not for recycling, the yearly demand for silver would not be met.
Best,
LastGold
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Thanks for the links and insight JM.
Edited by GoThunder
08/18/2011 7:23 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
Silver supply and demand comes into equilibrium from investment demand (various etf buying up). Silver dropped like a rock when the etf's had net redemptions and had to sell. Carlos slim selling off his mine production came into play as well.
Recycling accounts for a big portion of supply (some years as high as 50%) and picks up steam when silver prices go higher...(same can be said for other pm's, not sure of the percentages).
The one accounting on silver above ground (saw the write up about a year ago) in various coin forms is a staggering / mind blowing number which surfaces whenever silver prices gets high and effectively puts a cap on the price of silver.
This is one of the reasons the refiners will not take any more orders as they have plenty to keep them busy. I spoke to someone who said that during 1980's run up and fall in prices some refiners had as much as a years worth of stuff to melt. At some point the refiners are not going to be willing to pay and hold it for a year (unless they can hedge etc which is going to add to their cost) and will keep discounting / lowering their bids until supply dries up.
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Replies: 16 / Views: 2,112 |
Posted 08/18/2011 10:19 am
