|
This page may contain links that result in small commissions to keep this free site up and running.

Welcome Guest! Registering and/or logging in will remove the anchor (bottom) ads. It's Free!
To participate in the forum you must log in or register. | Author |
Replies: 69 / Views: 6,312 |
|
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
In your example, GM would have failed anyway, or restructured, if the government hadn't stepped in. So the stockholders would have lost everything, either way. But we, the taxpayer, saved the banks, didn't we? That little bit of market manipulation history can give the savvy investor an idea of which stock would be the better bet if the choice was A or B. Always bet on financials; they're better connected. Also bondholders, not stockholders, seem to have better odds of being made whole, on average.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Derivatives should have been addressed but were completely ignored when congress passed the banking overhaul regulation after the 2008 collapse. Totally agree, Traevin, and I do not think that this "oversight" was by accident. There is so much money involved here that buying off a few hundred politicians is just cheap insurance and a VERY small piece of the pie.  Quote: When the derivatives bubble finally bursts, it is the most likely event that will end in a sustained world depression and all the bad things that arise from the high rate of joblessness that occupancies deflationary environments. Right on, Brother! IMHO, a derivatives bubble collapse will be FAR worse than the depression of the 1930s. That was pretty much caused by financial system greed coupled with politician stupidity / buy-out. This one is orders of magnitude larger in size than any financial problems that have ever occurred and we have minimal resources with which to address the problem. I don't know. If these guys get to decorate lamp posts for their greed and corruption then at least some good will have come from it. In the meantime, the everyday citizens will pay a terrible price for this. Quote: That's the primary reason why I'd have my stops firmly in place when the stock market finally takes the hit. One can always get back in the game once the correction is complete. Be real careful with that kind of thinking. Just because this has always been the case before does not mean that it will be the case in the future. There have been MANY changes in the world of economics and finance. What we formerly knew as true may no longer be so. It is good that you have your stops in place. While these are not perfect protection from downside risk, they are pretty good and about all we can do when investing in paper assets. My concern is that if the derivatives market implodes, the results will not only include the stock markets of every country on Earth but also every fiat currency as well. It will do us no good to be stopped out with minimal losses to our dollars if the dollar itself collapses to virtually no value. Could that happen? It's probably a long shot but it is not impossible. That's where our PM hoards come into play. Even if we lose all of our paper assets, they will still retain some value... and perhaps a LOT of value. Quote: Why buy stocks when the gubmint has shown you have no control over its value? When I look at my life and all that is in it and swirling around it, I have virtually no control over much of anything. Because of this, I do not worry overly much about this issue. I recognize it as a valid point, though. Quote: You bought GM, too bad, we're saying you lost everything. Stock A fails, but stock B gets bailed out. True enough, Fredd, but if we are stopped out with a 10% loss instead of a 100% loss, we CAN stand that kind of hit. Quote: Always bet on financials; they're better connected. Also bondholders, not stockholders, seem to have better odds of being made whole, on average. If there is a derivatives market implosion, the financials will be those who are closest to the immediate blast. Because of this, I would not touch Citi, BofA, GS, MS, or JPM with a stick. WFC might be OK, as they do not seem to be into the derivatives market. I would avoid the shares of any company that is playing with this kind of fire. They WILL get burned at some point and so will everyone who is associated with them.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
810 Posts |
Silver has been jumping around like a jackrabbit lately. As of right now as far as stocks goes I would invest in oil or copper. I think those are the only 2 things right now that I consider a safe zone for stocks. The reason that is because oil is getting harder and harder to get so prices will just go up and I think will skyrocket over this summer. Copper the demand wil never run out to my opinion but I dont think it will jump big anytime soon.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
810 Posts |
One thing I forgot to mention is be careful when it comes to oil because some of the companies are going to be taking a big hit and possibily crash. I would buy oil stocks and sell in the middle of the summer. For I see it possibily coming back down in the fall.
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote: In your example, GM would have failed anyway, or restructured, if the government hadn't stepped in. So the stockholders would have lost everything, either way. Not necessarily, they could have been bought out, and they'd still own part of the buyer. And how about first-in-line bondholders? They just had everything taken away, and new bonds issued. Quote: But we, the taxpayer, saved the banks, didn't we? That little bit of market manipulation history can give the savvy investor an idea of which stock would be the better bet if the choice was A or B. Always bet on financials; they're better connected. Also bondholders, not stockholders, seem to have better odds of being made whole, on average. There again. Some financials were bought out, some sold for less than their buildings were worth.
|
|
Rest in Peace
United States
9104 Posts |
Quote: True enough, Fredd, but if we are stopped out with a 10% loss instead of a 100% loss, we CAN stand that kind of hit. Stops are better than nothing, until the market (or your stock) is closed for hours or days, to reopen WAY below your stop. It's like being in a commodity that's limit down, and stays there for a week.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Stops are better than nothing, until the market (or your stock) is closed for hours or days, to reopen WAY below your stop. That IS a possibility, no doubt. We saw bank runs and bank holidays in the 1930s... well, my parents and grand parents did, anyway. If we get to a financial / economic collapse, we could very well see both of these once again. It could certainly take longer to try to figure all this mess out these days than it did way back when, so bank holidays could be for several days if not a period of some weeks or even a few months. No way to know for sure because if this hits it will be like nothing we've ever seen before. This is one of the reasons why it is good to stash some cash outside the banking system. We would be able to get to that in an emergency. It might or might not have any value but having it accessible is more likely to be of benefit than not having it. If it doesn't have any value then, bring out the PM hoard! 
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts |
Quote: It might or might not have any value but having it accessible is more likely to be of benefit than not having it. Ed, You're right about storing cash outside of banks. People should have an minimum of $1000 in small bills, mainly $5 & $10's. Most hardcore survival types who've studied the history of systemic collapses say that in a classic breakdown, cash will be king... At first, anyway. It's mainly a psychological issue. Most people would see any disruption in goods and services as a short term crisis only, and would expect and demand that the system reboot in a mater of days, or weeks, at the very most. In the interim, greenbacks would be the primary liquid capital available to the masses and the vast majority of stores would gladly continue accepting dollars until it became blatantly obvious that things were not on a recovery trajectory. That's when the government would step in and makes things much, much worse.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
I agree, Traevin. Having some ready cash will be really good in all but one scenario and that is worth the effort, IMHO. The one scenario where it is not good is when the dollar itself collapses and paper money is no good. I would think that this would be one of those "unlikely but possible" scenarios. Since my prepping involves a generalist approach rather than a specific approach that only addresses 1 or maybe 2 scenarios, I like to keep an open mind and prepare most for the things that seem most likely. This does not mean that I ignore the things that seem unlikely but I do spend less time and effort on them. I agree 100% that government intervention is VERY likely to make whatever scenario is in effect at the time worse and probably MUCH worse. That has been a pattern in US history, hence the joke about "Hello, I'm from the government and I'm here to help you", as being the 11 most terrifying words in the English language. We have a PRIME example of this in the current "recovery", which is not a recovery at all. In fact, it is not much of anything but leaning towards a much deeper recession than we had in 2008... and this AFTER spending $5T we didn't have to "fix it". Yes, there really are times when NO ACTION is the BEST action to take. Unfortunately, the government seems to attract mostly people who are unaware of this as a possible response to a situation. Another egregious thing that government types do is to assume that they know how to fix things when they do not. This causes them to treat the symptoms while the basic cause of a problem goes unaddressed, usually recurring later and of MUCH greater impact. The S&L crisis of 1987 was THE perfect example of this. Because the basics of that problem were not cured, we had the banking collapse of 2008 which was MUCH more expensive. The causes of that were also not addressed, so we can look forward to a MUCH worse problem in about 2029... every 21 years, it seems. 
|
| |
Replies: 69 / Views: 6,312 |
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us | Advertise Here | Privacy Policy / Terms of Use
|
| Coin Community Forum |
© 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Forums |
| It took 0.32 seconds to rattle this change. |
 |
|
| |
| |