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The Future Of Silver

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Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/28/2012  6:28 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
That's right Ed and that is the main reason The Fed is keeping interest rates near zero through 2015.

I agree. Bernanke is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. I am pretty sure that he would like to raise interest rates a little but does not dare for this very reason.


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What happens after that?

Oh, man! Do I wish I knew! Unfortunately, we cannot know until the future actually bursts upon us.


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Trouble, but it will take a few years to hit full force because interest rates will be gradually increased from 2015 forward.

Well, maybe they will and maybe they won't. Bernanke has already changed his mind on this at least once and could easily do so again. My best guess is that sometime in 2014-15, this entire issue will be removed from his control as the dollar crashes hard and brings down the US economy in a depression that will make the 1930s look like the good old days.


Quote:
By 2018 or 2019 we will be out of luck I'm afraid. Unless tax revenues increase dramatically, we're bankrupt no later than 2020.

I can see by this that you are an optimist. You could also be right. It does not feel that way to me, though. Printing lots of money has consequences but the Fed is behaving as if it does not. Surely, they MUST know that it does. Like many other people, I have had Econ 101, and all this is not really all that esoteric.


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No ones going to buy bonds with the current rates

Which is exactly why the Fed is buying almost all of the US Treasury paper now. Personally, I believe that US Treasury paper is in a bubble and that, like all other bubbles, it will go POP! one of these days. If / when that happens, there will be financial shock waves felt and heard around the entire world. It could very well collapse ALL of the bond markets. Debt... the ONE thing that is not in a shortage situation these days.

Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/28/2012  8:38 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I believe that US Treasury paper is in a bubble and that, like all other bubbles, it will go POP!


Its possible but the rest of the world will do everything it can to stop that from happening like they are with greece. Anything that would hurt them is in their best interest to try and save. Of course if they ever had to bail us out they would start working to get off US Dollars and isolate their economies from us which would leave us high and dry in the future if theyre successful. Behind the scenes wed be getting an earful from them too
Valued Member
Shirayasha's Avatar
United States
141 Posts
 Posted 09/29/2012  02:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Shirayasha to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
2 weeks from 9/14 when the price was 34.63, the price has seemed to stabilize around 34.50
-the only action to be noted was a quick push to the 35 mark, to a collapse to the low 34's, to a gain back to the mid 34's.

I think silver is going to stay below 35 dollars for a few weeks, could even drop a little, but it seems that the recent gains it made in the past week seem to be over, and the election is not even over yet, if that was to affect it at all
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/29/2012  02:17 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The election will almost certainly cause a spike or a drop depending on the winner, the question will be how long it lasts
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/29/2012  5:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Its possible but the rest of the world will do everything it can to stop that from happening like they are with greece.

I am sure that they would want to do that but the US economy is so large that even in its currently reduced state, it is too big for anyone or even everyone to bail out. It might be possible for all of the major economic countries to come together, under the gun of a terrible worldwide depression, and create some kind of debt forgiveness program. No idea how that would be set up or work but it might be possible.


Quote:
Of course if they ever had to bail us out they would start working to get off US Dollars and isolate their economies from us which would leave us high and dry in the future if theyre successful.

Some of them are already doing that and are actively working to either end the idea of a World Reserve Currency or use the Chinese currency for that.


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Behind the scenes wed be getting an earful from them too

No doubt but that kind of talking to may not stay all that private if things do not go as well as they would like.


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The election will almost certainly cause a spike or a drop depending on the winner, the question will be how long it lasts

I agree. If Romney wins, we will likely see a "relief rally" in stocks and lower commodity prices. If Obama wins, we could see a sharp drop in stocks but an equally sharp rise in commodities. Of the two, I would think that the relief rally would be the shorter lived event. As to time... I'm thinking weeks for the relief rally but months for the drop and recovery.
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/29/2012  7:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
or use the Chinese currency for that


Maybe some of the smaller countries but not the big players. Theyre all just as suspicious of the Chinese self reported numbers as wall street is.


Quote:

No doubt but that kind of talking to may not stay all that private if things do not go as well as they would like.


Everything gets leaked now a days I dont think thered be any difference there.


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the US economy is so large that even in its currently reduced state, it is too big for anyone or even everyone to bail out.


Only with a complete collapse. With down turns several countries could do enough to prop it up for the time being as long as we dont just keep voting ourselves free stuff every election.

Plus we could just get lucky and have an alien invasion we save the world from and get the debt wiped clean for saving the world
Valued Member
craig piette's Avatar
United States
71 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  01:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add craig piette to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Buy and sell up and down .... or just hoard it like me!
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BH1964's Avatar
United States
10982 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  03:02 am  Show Profile   Check BH1964's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add BH1964 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I can see by this that you are an optimist. You could also be right. It does not feel that way to me, though. Printing lots of money has consequences but the Fed is behaving as if it does not. Surely, they MUST know that it does. Like many other people, I have had Econ 101, and all this is not really all that esoteric.


Somewhat an optimist Ed. I've seen models where a things were stretched out to 15 years, keeping the U.S.A. solvent until 2027. Now that's optimistic!

Regardless of whether the timeline is 5 years or 15 years, the outcome is the same. The interesting thing is that we have tens of trillions of dollars of wealth in the U.S. The gov't can't seize private assets to pay debt though. Not yet anyway!
ANA #R3154474
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  04:09 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The gov't can't seize private assets to pay debt though. Not yet anyway!


Even if they did its not enough to pay off the debt and then everyone would have no money.
Pillar of the Community
Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  6:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Theyre all just as suspicious of the Chinese self reported numbers as wall street is.

Exactly! Which is why the Chinese are producing and importing gold hand over fist. They are not doing that to make trinkets. IMHO, this will be a huge hoard that will be used to back their new currency. It would be difficult for most countries to reject a currency that is backed by gold. Even if only partially backed by gold, it would still be MUCH stronger than any fiat currency.


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With down turns several countries could do enough to prop it up for the time being...

So, BB, which countries would those be? It would have to be creditor nations and not debtor nations because the debtor nations all have their own financial and economic problems. Canada and Australia? Great people but too small to pull us out of the ditch. Europe? Nope. Russia and China combined? Maybe but why would they? They are liking the fact that they are rising in the world as we sink. Things going as-is is just peachy from their point of view.


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Plus we could just get lucky and have an alien invasion we save the world from and get the debt wiped clean for saving the world

OK, now here is something with which I can really get onboard! lol

Of course, if no accomodating aliens show up we will just have to lose our minds and start killing each other off in large numbers. This seems to be the typical infantile human response at times such as these.


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I've seen models where a things were stretched out to 15 years, keeping the U.S.A. solvent until 2027. Now that's optimistic!

That sounds as if it is more in the realm of Pollyanna than just mere optimism.


Quote:
The interesting thing is that we have tens of trillions of dollars of wealth in the U.S. The gov't can't seize private assets to pay debt though. Not yet anyway!

Any government that gets sufficiently desperate will do anything to maintain itself in power... lie, cheat, steal, even kill... all for the "greater good", of course. Few people understand just how tempting the money in US retirement plans is to a spendthrift government. Don't for a moment assume that they are not absolutely drooling over the $6T in 401Ks, IRAs, 459s, 403Bs, etc. They have already raided some money from the federal employee pension system but that was just a warm-up exercise and not the main event. They are very well aware of the minimal outcry over this theft, so are not dissuaded from pursuing this kind of activity on a grander scale. All they would need to do is create a little more economic havoc ala MF Global, PFG-Best, and Sentinel to come up with legislation to "protect" retirement funds by mandating that money into "ultra safe" US Treasury bonds. They get the money to squander, we get some debt paper in a dying system, and they can fund the US government excesses for a whole extra year! Wow!! What a deal! Anyway, it is this thought that keeps me awake at night.


Quote:
Even if they did its not enough to pay off the debt and then everyone would have no money.

True. But there is an old saying that applies here: "If you owe the bank a million dollars, they own you. If you owe the bank a billion dollars, you own them". Modify this as needed for national scale finances. It should be possible, for example, to offer to pay these debts at a reduced rate and the people owed this money would have very little choice in the matter. The decision for them would be to accept a reduced payment or risk waiting until later and not get paid at all because of a default and repudiation of all debt. Yes, this would be a last resort action but we are all out of good options and are now looking at options that are not good but are perhaps less bad.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  8:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Exactly! Which is why the Chinese are producing and importing gold hand over fist. They are not doing that to make trinkets. IMHO, this will be a huge hoard that will be used to back their new currency. It would be difficult for most countries to reject a currency that is backed by gold. Even if only partially backed by gold, it would still be MUCH stronger than any fiat currency.


But you still face the same problem of not knowing if they really are backing it or not or how much gold they really have. They can lie about whatever they want and only they know the truth.


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So, BB, which countries would those be


Germany, China, any combinations of several smaller countries doing a little each. Often times you just need the perception of help to spark investors and the market which will provide the real help.


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Yes, this would be a last resort action but we are all out of good options and are now looking at options that are not good but are perhaps less bad.


Well have a civil war and start fresh before we allow the government to seize all our assets. Thats the beauty of the 2nd Amendment, its prevents extreme solutions. Even if it didnt get to civil war you can bet every last politician advocating it will be recalled
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  8:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What a shame what is happening to our country. Silver will do whatever it does. I can't even begin to guess! I'm just glad I have the little I do. Now it seems the 5 oz ATB coin is a good deal being about $30 over spot for a neat coin
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  10:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The FUTURE of SILVER or all pmz, just like vintage collectibles or antiques. Economical ups and downs through time with both, but a steady climb up as time ticks on....

That always has been and always will be.....
Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  11:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Actually Hawk, Silver has pretty much maintained a sideways price for most of American History. It is only in the last five years that it has really gone up.

This thought that silver has constantly gone up, always....not so much.
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basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 09/30/2012  11:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

This thought that silver has constantly gone up, always....not so much.




Theres been spikes in the past but they always came back down. Its possible that the baseline value without speculation is higher now than the traditional 5 dollar value with the new industrial use but as of now production is still higher than demand and as long as that remains true you wont see a consistent rise for any other reason then people are stocking up on it
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