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 Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,973 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
@YUP...so, what's your hunch..IF spot continues up, will GOLD be stronger first, than, Silver a bit behind it? I'm pretty sure that's historically what happens..there is this "lag time" with silver...trying to chart this theory, to no avail.
I DO see GLD, for a 1 year period is ONLY up 12%!..SIL up 96%. Hard to believe, those numbers with GLD..the chart almost looks FLAT!!...bet those investors are miffed.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
7096 Posts |
Silver kept stalling at the $18 mark for a while but once that barrier was breached it seems to be doing OK at the moment. Interesting times  |
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Valued Member
United States
154 Posts |
Another good day for PM and miners. Am thankful to see the turn around.
@beem Thanks for the post. The speakers have a point with fiat currency. Here in America, we've handed too much control over to the Fed by allowing them to manipulate our currency and the banks to create credit out of thin air. A good reason to be stacking.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
right into the gap we go, breaking higher out of the range for gold. Silver, same case. notice how two weeks ago, the price action in short term time frames got the PMs to where they are now.
... and to think everyone thought the uptrend was dead months ago LOL my my my. I hope everyone is learning from this and remembers this pattern as happens all the time and is present in many assets across the board.
Yes, it is possible to have some very nasty pull backs and drops in an uptrend, ESPECIALLY when an asset has tons of overhead supply and has broken a long term downtrend.
carry on as you were...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Who thought the uptrend was dead?  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
you know who you are, that have gotten into a tizzy over the pull back lol. its ok, I forgive you all lol That comment was not mainly directed at members but in general, I did see a fair amount of fellow traders who were confident that the uptrend was not real, that in fact gold and silver still were in an uptrend. They felt because gold and silver pulled back as they did, that the trend was dead.
However, what they failed to remember is that any asset that makes a yearly high IS in an uptrend. They also forgot but overhead supply and that seasonality, did in fact play a factor in the month of October.
@ilikeikes
You know, everyone goes back and forth on this. From my experience, sometimes gold leads, silver and vice a versa. Who leads higher from here, I dont know. What I will say is tho that gold leads first, then silver. Silver is much more speculative than gold, hence why we see such spectacular moves.
Gold tho, is the leader in the PM sector and when conditions are ripe and appropriate for buying, silver does well. This is pretty typical of other assets tho, as an example, when a sector or industry group is doing well, we will see many of the weaker or more highly speculative companies stock do very well, sometimes out performing the leaders of the group.
However, at some point, the market re-balances things, and many of the high speculative names fade or start to lag and the leaders remain leaders. From there a few names join the leaders and the crowd is thinned.
Silver acts much the same way, playing second fiddle to gold.
So overall, I think gold will in time, take the reins and push ahead over silver. That is why I always and advocate gold over silver in terms of which you should own more of. Price is everything to me and price tells me gold should be owned more than silver.
Now, as gold pushes higher, and especially when/if gold can reclaim its former historical highs and blast past them, and if silver can do the same, I do think there is a good chance we see higher numbers for silver. Time will tell.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7390 Posts |
Lol yup. Personally it was just a stomach punch for a few days a couple of weeks ago. I knew it wasn't the end of the uptrend but I must admit I did sigh a bit of relief once it started to level off. I'm now expecting a brexit like jump very soon, say in about a week or so  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Yup,
A few weeks ago you mentioned you were moving to the sideline for a while (10/6). I hope you decided to get back in before this last uptrend.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
NOW....
expect some selling. It will probably catch the ones who fell asleep while gold started its move 2 weeks ago.
From here, getting a nice range again would work best, staying above the gap.
For my part, I have no position in gold and silver as of yet. Instead I have been mostly in regional banks, coal and a handful of few names still hanging on in this market. I have also shorted a few names. As a trader, I am constantly looking at a wide range of assets, which it has been pretty darn thin and getting thinner.
There will be plenty of chances to buy gold, silver, miners. This uptrend is FAR from being done. What I have done is keep a score sheet of the miners who have a positive ER reaction going forward, those will be the leaders for the next leg up in gold.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Another miner with spectacular results from its ER. Put this name on your watch list, this is a miner worth owning. It is RGLD.
Feeling adventurous? If you are the buy the dip mentality, this would be one to buy the dips, in the uptrend.
Not saying go buy this today or buy it the first day it turns red but keep an eye out, look for a little bit down and grab it. Mining stocks, with good ERs, in an overall uptrend in gold, should rise higher.
Notice also that we want to stick with the more "expensive" (I use this term to make my point easier to understand, the market does not view RGLD as expensive", perhaps high priced might be a better technical term) stocks and not with the under 10 dollar kind of stocks.
so to recap, gold miners on your radar going forward should be
AEM
ABX
RGLD
NEM
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Pillar of the Community
United States
606 Posts |
Thanks, Yup.
Why did you give ole CDE the boot?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
@YUP..talk to us about COAL stocks..if you can, either in here, or, another thread? I'm interested in buying, but, never in that industry. Feel free to chime in what you can, considering this is a bullion thread.
Thanks
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@ilikeikes
really dont have much to say about coal stocks. Can only say they are/have been in up trends for many months now. The entire sector looks good tho, even steel names look good, for now. Take a look at various parts of the coal sector and related stocks such as SXC, ARLP, CLD, KOL, AKS, etc.
Why? I really have no idea and really dont care. I dont even know what these companies do. All I know is they belong in the coal sectors and the price action has improved, they have bottomed and have made yearly highs. The money has/is flowing there, so I got there too.
Montana asked about CDE. Well, I dont believe I gave it the boot. It did have a good ER but it has lagged the other names I mentioned. I dont want slow stocks, I want fast moving stocks, I want the best ones. If you pull a chart out and compare CDE to ABX, AEM, you can see how both these been flying higher than CDE after the report. Heck even NEM who did not report a great number and not a great reaction, is back to flying high, even faster than CDE.
When we see a stock lagging in a strong sector, we want to concentrate less on it. GENERALLY speaking, the more desired stock by the market, the high priced the stock is. A ten dollar stock is ten dollars for a reason. That is not to say CDE wouldnt move in an uptrend but again, one's objective should be to get as much juice out of a stock as you can. The way you do this is go where the money is concentrated. Not to mention that higher priced stocks move faster and have bigger moves.
For that reason, CDE is not a stock that is high on my list. Perhaps if CDE can increase in price and show it is capable of keeping up with the leaders in its group, then maybe its worth a shot.
Now, thats just me, thats my experience. One may like CDE and probably wouldnt do bad buying it but again, you always want to be in the absolute stocks in the sector, because that is where you will make most of your money.
Edited by yup7676
11/03/2016 9:18 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1205 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@ilikeikes
yup, thats another one. Its easy to find them, you must make a screen for all these sectors.
you must watch them all at certain levels, all the time, look at the 52 high list constantly.
Another thing is to constantly analyze all sector/industry ETFs
if you put the time in, you will find where the money is flowing or not flowing.
Edited by yup7676
11/04/2016 12:25 am
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Replies: 5,643 / Views: 459,973 |
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Posted 11/01/2016 06:30 am
