Flash Sale And One Day Sales

Interesting.. All of the regular 2018 items - SD, Proof set, Premium Proof and Specimen Sets are on for 15% off. Also still on RCM site for full price.

Discount seems to be by age of release. 2018 - 15%, 2017 - 25%, 2016 - 25%-40% and 2015 - 50%.

@moneypenny... I agree with the comment on the 2015 Superman coins but I was surprised to see last year's proof & specimen sets on the discount list. In the '70s and '80s the proof sets used to sell 100,00 - 200,000 units. 1981 saw 199,000 proof sets sold at $36 (inflation adjusts to $90 in 2018) the special proof set which is the closest with only the 36mm Dollar in Silver at $105 (close to the inflation adjusted price from 1981) is struggling to sell 15,000.

I wonder if part of the reason for the breadth of RCM product is a consequence of the drop in volume for the individual issues. In 1981, the NCLT issued was limited to 6 products:
- A Uncirculated Set (186,250)
- A Specimen Set (71,300)
- A single proof set with only a Silver $ (199,000)
- A proof dollar (353,742)
- A BU dollar (148,647)
- $100 Gold at 22K (100,950)

All in all, over a million units sold through and it was not difficult to own one of each issue... Granted the $100 was pricey but nothing compared to some of today's issues (5oz gold Proof for $10K or 1kg for almost $70K).

Modern mintages are much lower and I wonder if the RCM even sells through a million units per year of their NCLT although the larger number of products grants much more choice. If you assume a consistent margin target for each year, it is much harder to achieve that target with many smaller issues than few larger issues.

The main issue for the larger mintages back in the 70's or 80's is the Baby Boom generation was just coming to their own with huge amounts of disposable income. The number of actual collectors has plummeted by comparison. So, to make up for the thousands of proof and specimen sets that they aren't making - they have expanded the production to attract a wider slice of society, not just collectors.

Notice that even with the reduced prices, most items remain unsold? This should be a HUGE red flag for collectors that view the hobby as an investment.

Any investment has winners and losers. You can invest in stocks and houses and still lose lots of money.

Similarly, there are winners and losers in this hobby. If you bought a kilo gold coin (yeah RCM made that) more than ten years ago, you are a winner. Silver for losers.

Just my Two Cents

One of the ways that an investor evaluates a given opportunity is to look at the past history of the investment. With the exception of two specific scenarios, NCLT has always underperformed compared to the stock market, real estate, bonds or any other legitimate investment vehicle over a 10 year period. I say 10 years as anyone can pick a short timeframe to isolate a bubble in a given market but 10 years is a good equalizer.

The specific scenarios are:
1) Every so often a coin hits a wave, think the 2007 Silver Proof Loons which are still out performing the stock market 12 years on.
2) When the intrinsic value of a metal rises. This is the 2007 Gold Kilo scenario...(purchased at $36K today worth $55K as bullion) that said, your returns would have been higher if you had purchased 32 Gold maples as you wouldn't have paid the NCLT premium and saved yourself $14K (Midpoint of gold in 2007 was $700/oz).

It has been said often by many that coin collecting is a hobby. Buy what appeals to you. Anything tagged as a "collectible" usually isn't and all of the long term profit has been wrung from the item at the issue point of sale. Coin collecting and NCLT in particular is not an investment. Just because you have a collection that can be liquidated by your heirs doesn't mean it was an investment. The same scenario exists for jewelry or Royal Doulton figurines.

Even Bullion Metals are not a good investment, they are at best a hedge against market volatility but if you are relying on a gold stash to fund your retirement further than stuffing a mattress with $100 bills then be prepared to keep working. You will get there sooner with a GIC/CD.

If you are a collector and enjoy coin collecting for the hobby aspects... whether it be history, artistry, whatever... Please keep at it and enjoy the hobby.
If you are an investor looking to get rich or even just fund retirement... Look elsewhere, coins are not the ticket to financial independence.

2 or 3 "winners" out of 300+ coin release a year is a terrible rate of return. If you pick 300 stocks randomly, likely 50% of them will make money.

Gold RCM NCLT is the worst possible investment because they lack liquidity. In other words, gold NCLT is so expensive it is very hard to find a buyer for them. You can only get bullion value for them.

Two gold Kilo coins was issued in 2009. Issue price was $49,000 and $54,000. Today's bullion price is $56,159. Factoring in inflation you are losing money.

I really wonder how brick and mortar shops are handling fewer sales. Is that lack of interest reflected in circulation coins as well?