What Would Happen To Silver & Gold Prices If The US Government Defaulted?

Looks like it just passed in the House with bipartisan support. Now the fun passes over to the Senate, with just a few days left. Turning into a real nail biter.

Well, we're not out of the woods yet. The Senate still needs to pass the bill before Monday, with 3 Senators (from both parties) already wanting amendments, which would send the bill back to the House. All it takes is one Senator (out of a hundred) to hold up the bill. The Treasury is down to $48 billion as of yesterday ($37 billion the day before). That's cutting it real close.

The deal is already done. Some of those people are being allowed to make a show prior to settlement, to appease their constituents or demonstrate power. Political kabuki theatre.

Its always the same, and as usual average Americans going to tighten their wallet or purse every time.

You can't discuss the USD without discussing politics it is like discussing the tides and pretending the moon doesn't exist. And really what you are discussing is not gold but the USD. Gold is fixed the USD rises and falls in reationship to it. When the dollar falls the price of gold "goes up".

Debt limit, no debt limit doesn't really matter. Most countries are now starting to try to ditch the USD as their reserve currency just as fast as their little fingers can and it has nothing to do with the obscene amount of debt the US Gov is piling on. Once the US decided to weaponize the dollar and try to exclude any country whose foreign policy they didn't agree with from access to their banking system than any country with the expectations of having an independant foreign policy will have to change their reserve out of USD.

Each country has to look at our policies and determine for themselves if they want to shackle their financial health to what might be the latest woke policies to come from Washington DC. What if we don't like their marriage laws, or their immigrations laws, or their prison system? Will we then freeze their assets, lock them out of the Swift system, deny them access to USD?

You can say that won't happen but what assurance does any country have after the US crossed the Rubicon with regard to Russia? You can say Russia was an extreme case and I agree it was but it still a precedant. Once you make an extreme example the next example becomes easier.

Look around, the ten ASEAN countries just agreed to ditch the dollar. The BRICS are looking to do likewise.

At this point the debt limit is just rearranging the deck chairs on the ship of state about to hit the iceberg of countries dropping the dollar as the worlds reserve

https://dailyhodl.com/2023/05/03/ma...llar-report/

https://watcher.guru/news/brics-16-...nd%20Vietnam.

It doesn't matter if the USD is stable if Washington increasingly sanctions its use by countries whose policies they don't agree with.

https://ofac.treasury.gov/sanctions...-information

To be fair the US has already technically defaulted a couple of times e.g. when FDR basically unilaterally defaulted by calling in all gold coins bullions and gold certificates from circulation and then repricing the USD in gold terms. That was a soft default because one USD was still one USD but it was still a technical default. At that time the USD was on the gold standard so such a default isn't really possible today but still it was a default and the same happened again to a lesser extent when the silver certificates were voided for federal reserve notes.
The government has in the past also shut down because of the debt ceiling and in practice little happens.
Now a real default of the form of the US suddenly refusing to honor US debt would be quite a bit nastier and there would probably be a precious metal melt up simply because the USD would tank versus everything else and the USD would no longer be the reserve currency overnight. Now that is extremely unlikely to happen under normal conditions because the USD losing reserve currency status would be a disaster economically but it is possible the US does this selectively at some point e.g. not honoring debt owned by China for example. Again this is very very unlikely even in a war - the most likely thing they would do is simply confiscate Chinese assets and claims to USD but not actually default.

A great question on the meltup and the answer is it will STILL be in USD too but the increase will be just higher in USD vs perhaps say CHF (Switzerland of all the developed countries is probably the most fiscally responsible)
So if the USD sells off say 50% vs CHF and gold is melting up it might go up 30% against the CHF which would mean 95% vs the USD (via the product of the two)
But again that would need the USD to no longer function as the reserve currency and would be ultra serious.