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Posted 07/27/2023 9:05 pm
I think we chewed over many causes of dwindling interest on other threads. Just to summarize a few:
1. Many classic coins that are collected are made from silver. As inflation has driven the price of silver nuts, the part of the coin that represents historical value has shrunk relative to its value as precious metal. Younger enthusiasts aren't going to park their limited funds into a collectible that can gyrate wildly with the commodities markets. That's assuming they can afford silver coinage at all.
2. The mint itself has swamped us with new quarter designs, new dollar designs, and a host of short-term commemorative coins like LAP nickels and Lincoln's life cents. I have compared it to comic books in the 1980s, where there were so many "collectors edition" comics produced each month that it was impossible to keep up.
3. Companies are monetizing the heck out of coins. It costs over fifty bucks just to get a coin graded. Once rare coins started being treated as a fine art category that defends against inflation, that priced out newcomers.
4. Fakes are a huge problem. Rookies can't reliably buy anything cool on ebay because the probability of getting cheated by a high quality fake is pretty high. Additionally, there are a lot of bait-and-switch listings on ebay and elsewhere. You can't even trust TPG slabbed coins because the slabs are so easily faked. Coin shows seem just as suspect. How could you ever be sure that a dealer didn't sell you a good Chinese fake for $100? You need to have a pro-grade knowledge to evaluate coins, and that just isn't feasible for newcomers.
5. Almost all the good stuff is taken already. The people with the $$$ already have the real $$$ coins. Eventually that will backfire, as they are effectively filtering the market down to a tiny fraction of interested people who can afford the cool stuff. At some point there will be an oversupply relative to demand, but that might be a very long time away, and low volume niche markets are notoriously sticky.
6. Shipping and handling on low end coins can be more expensive than the coins. Travel to a coin show can burn more money in gas than a rookie can spend on coins. There are lots of frictional costs to coin collecting that didn't exist years ago.
The way I see it, the problem boils down to a simple premise: can a kid with $20 in his pocket buy some cool coins in 2023? I believe that due to a lot of factors, the answer is a no.
I also happen to believe that coin collecting organizations do not conduct effective outreach to kids interested in coins. The emphasis is placed on the big money coins. If you want to engage new people in a hobby, then there must be a starting point that is economical, enjoyable, and relatable to them. There are a few books like Strike It Rich with Pocket Change that are somewhat engaging, but books aren't as popular as they once were. The podcast offerings are either sensational ($1.5M coin found in vending machine!!1!), dull (35 minutes about pennies), or both. But even if a vast horde of new enthusiasts could be recruited, they will be interested in new areas, not in filling albums with silver Morgan dollars.
1. Many classic coins that are collected are made from silver. As inflation has driven the price of silver nuts, the part of the coin that represents historical value has shrunk relative to its value as precious metal. Younger enthusiasts aren't going to park their limited funds into a collectible that can gyrate wildly with the commodities markets. That's assuming they can afford silver coinage at all.
2. The mint itself has swamped us with new quarter designs, new dollar designs, and a host of short-term commemorative coins like LAP nickels and Lincoln's life cents. I have compared it to comic books in the 1980s, where there were so many "collectors edition" comics produced each month that it was impossible to keep up.
3. Companies are monetizing the heck out of coins. It costs over fifty bucks just to get a coin graded. Once rare coins started being treated as a fine art category that defends against inflation, that priced out newcomers.
4. Fakes are a huge problem. Rookies can't reliably buy anything cool on ebay because the probability of getting cheated by a high quality fake is pretty high. Additionally, there are a lot of bait-and-switch listings on ebay and elsewhere. You can't even trust TPG slabbed coins because the slabs are so easily faked. Coin shows seem just as suspect. How could you ever be sure that a dealer didn't sell you a good Chinese fake for $100? You need to have a pro-grade knowledge to evaluate coins, and that just isn't feasible for newcomers.
5. Almost all the good stuff is taken already. The people with the $$$ already have the real $$$ coins. Eventually that will backfire, as they are effectively filtering the market down to a tiny fraction of interested people who can afford the cool stuff. At some point there will be an oversupply relative to demand, but that might be a very long time away, and low volume niche markets are notoriously sticky.
6. Shipping and handling on low end coins can be more expensive than the coins. Travel to a coin show can burn more money in gas than a rookie can spend on coins. There are lots of frictional costs to coin collecting that didn't exist years ago.
The way I see it, the problem boils down to a simple premise: can a kid with $20 in his pocket buy some cool coins in 2023? I believe that due to a lot of factors, the answer is a no.
I also happen to believe that coin collecting organizations do not conduct effective outreach to kids interested in coins. The emphasis is placed on the big money coins. If you want to engage new people in a hobby, then there must be a starting point that is economical, enjoyable, and relatable to them. There are a few books like Strike It Rich with Pocket Change that are somewhat engaging, but books aren't as popular as they once were. The podcast offerings are either sensational ($1.5M coin found in vending machine!!1!), dull (35 minutes about pennies), or both. But even if a vast horde of new enthusiasts could be recruited, they will be interested in new areas, not in filling albums with silver Morgan dollars.
