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How Long Can The Silver Scrapping Phase Last?

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GTALLEN's Avatar
United States
315 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  6:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GTALLEN to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply


Aluminum was used as a cheap substitute for copper wire. Albeit, I don't want aluminum wiring in my house. I don't think it is even legal to wire with aluminum anymore.

I agree there is currently not a "perfect" inexpensive substitute for silver.

Cost is passed on to consumers. If the consumer is no longer willing to absorb the cost, something else will be substituted. Will it work as good as silver, who knows.

I am not a chemist, economist, engineer, or scientist of any kind. I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

I know we, the human race, are dependent on cheap oil. Oil over the past 15 years has been at a low of around $16 a barrel and peaked around $150 a barrel not long ago. (those numbers for oil are off the top of my head, they are off by a few dollars I am sure) One of the top users of oil/fuel is the DOD. Americans are the highest consumers of oil. China the second. That could change and may by the time I post this.

A renewable, inexpensive, non polluting, substitute for oil would be the "holy grail". We can't even do that on any sort of practical level. So I concede that a substitute for silver is highly unlikely.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  6:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Plus a lot of people have huge stashes, in excess of several thousand oz.

My experience has been that very few people have much silver at all. Of all the people I know, only myself and my mom and step-dad have more than a few ounces of silver.


Quote:
Your results in your county may vary, but I would be willing to bet there is lots less silver out there waiting to be scrapped than most people think.

My thought is that there are a sufficient number of assumptions in this that any sort of calculation is likely to be more of a guess than anything. Still, I would agree that there is not a huge amount of scrap silver out there. There is definitely some but how much is anyone's guess.


Quote:
So I concede that a substitute for silver is highly unlikely.


Silver's unique properties are a function of its atomic structure. Since no other atom has that same structure, no other atom will have those same properties. That said, there are things that have similar atomic structures and, as a result, similar properties. Both copper and gold share similar properties to silver and they also have a d-shell electron structure. While it is unlikely that there will ever be a direct replacement for silver, it is likely that we will develop technology that will allow us to use silver and other precious elements much more efficiently... doing more with less will be the theme.
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GoThunder's Avatar
United States
830 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  7:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GoThunder to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Silver is the world's best conductor of electrons by quite a bit, there is no substitute for it in high tech electronics and weaponry. Or so I've been told by electrical engineers, but I'm a mechanical engineer myself.
Edited by GoThunder
08/28/2011 12:43 pm
Valued Member
GTALLEN's Avatar
United States
315 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  8:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GTALLEN to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am a logistic management specialist, with concentrations in aviation to include unmanned. I am currently doing acquisition consulting for the next generation of aviation platforms for the U.S. Army. I do some quality control and cost-benefit analysis.

Cost-benefit analysis is a fairly new concept for the DOD. However, in order to remain the premier super power in the world, we make sure the tax payers (which I pay plenty of and I am sure most here pay a lot also) are getting the "most bang for the buck". pun intended

So when we strike a target with our precision weaponry, no one goes out to recover the silver, gold, platinum, DU, or anything else. It is, most likely, vaporized anyways.

Silver, gold, platinum, titanium, copper, aluminum and many other expensive metals are used in small amounts everyday that will never be recovered in many industries, and not just weaponry.
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  11:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
OP-

Cowtown, Ahia?

We have over 7000 purchases shown, 35K in the city, so 9K households, have we bought 78% alone?

Do you mean 3000-4000 households in the county, or 50-70 per household in the county?
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 08/27/2011  11:29 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Email I got at 5:31 today:


Quote:
Today at a garage sale I bought 3 14k gold rings for $.25


Yes, some people haven't heard...

Valued Member
United States
52 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  02:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add snoman70 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Aluminum IS used as more inexpensive house wiring, as well as industrial wiring. My house has aluminum wire in it, as well as my garage....in the mains. The equivalent wire in copper would have been prohibitevely expensive. The aluminum will work just as well, as it was properly installed.

Copper coated steel wire is commonly used in communications cable. Most electrons travel on the surface of a conductor, not the core. Essentially, if a tiny tube could be fabricated, it could carry the same electrical load.

Replacements are being developed, and as was said, developments are reducing the amounts needed. Look at the difference in computer parts. Computers of today use 1% of the PM's that computers of ten years ago used...but a lot more things have computers in them, and it is NOT easy to recover the PM's from the computers.

PM use is on the rise, as are the base metals. Heck, look at the price of lead, even with rohs compliance (essentially trying to phase materials like lead out of electronics), lead is now trading at over $1 a pound.

As for your antique silver set and accessories, I imagine their already worth more in melt than they are as antiques. Very little silver work is worth more as a functional piece than it is worth in melt. The only reason it's worth more to YOU is because it has an emotional value. Once someone gets their hands on it that doesn't have that emotional attachment, it'll be melted.

My parents run estate sales. The last estate they did there were over 30 silver spoons and a handful of napkin rings. All nice collectable spoons. All were priced at melt. Only five sold at melt value before prices were dropped on the final day of the sale (at which time we purchased all of the remaining at less than melt value).
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GTALLEN's Avatar
United States
315 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  10:23 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GTALLEN to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I am sure the prior owner cared not, when it was sold.
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poboxw's Avatar
Canada
1502 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  12:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add poboxw to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Looking up scrap gold recovery for a while. Finally decided not to attempt to kill myself.
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GoThunder's Avatar
United States
830 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  12:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GoThunder to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Replacements are being developed, and as was said, developments are reducing the amounts needed. Look at the difference in computer parts. Computers of today use 1% of the PM's that computers of ten years ago used...but a lot more things have computers in them, and it is NOT easy to recover the PM's from the computers.



I'm shocked at that number, so you're saying 99% of PMs have been removed from computer manufacturing since 2001? Do you have a source for that info?


Quote:


PM use is on the rise, as are the base metals. Heck, look at the price of lead, even with rohs compliance (essentially trying to phase materials like lead out of electronics), lead is now trading at over $1 a pound.


Yeah that removal of lead from solder is causing lots of reliability problems too, that plus the newer non-human mass soldering processes. Just about every electronics failure I've had in the last few years was due to cracked solder joints and fixed by reflowing the solder on the failed board. I've fixed TVs, stereo receivers, and even car instrument clusters by reflowing the crappy soldering.
Valued Member
United States
397 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  5:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add schockergd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If most people go to Columbus, does that mean you're in Lancaster? :)

I don't know if I'd say 90% have been depleted, as there are still some significant hordes out there. I was talking to a guy about 2 weeks ago (And if you're meaning Columbus Ohio, then you're not far from me at all). And he had a guy bring in over 1,000 ounces of junk silver coins asking for him to give him a price. The guy still has them (I guess) however he was shopping around, and to me that's a pretty significant number.

If you also go to coin auctions locally, especially probate auctions you can take a peak into how much local people hold, some of it is pretty significant.
Valued Member
United States
52 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  6:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add snoman70 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

I'm shocked at that number, so you're saying 99% of PMs have been removed from computer manufacturing since 2001? Do you have a source for that info?


That's what I said, but I'm talking out of my butt. The reality is that current technology has GREATLY reduced the amount of precious metals necessary for manufacture of computers and components. One only need to look to the scrap value of these components. A scrap x86 processor is worth up to 10x that of current processors.

The other reality however is that the amount of computers produced has greatly increased.
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poboxw's Avatar
Canada
1502 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  6:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add poboxw to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
perhaps a bit off topic but

Quote:
Computers of today use 1% of the PM's that computers of ten years ago used...

what electronics gave up in PM they made up 100 fold in the use of rare earth elements
Rest in Peace
biggfredd's Avatar
United States
9104 Posts
 Posted 08/28/2011  10:41 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add biggfredd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
If most people go to Columbus, does that mean you're in Lancaster? :)

Shermanville, Ahia. I was wondering who was east of Cowtown, not familiar with anyone in the area.


Quote:
I don't know if I'd say 90% have been depleted, as there are still some significant hordes out there. I was talking to a guy about 2 weeks ago (And if you're meaning Columbus Ohio, then you're not far from me at all). And he had a guy bring in over 1,000 ounces of junk silver coins asking for him to give him a price. The guy still has them (I guess) however he was shopping around, and to me that's a pretty significant number.


I'm amazed how much people know about what their stuff's worth. Had a guy call today about a German coin that he figured had 1.5g silver, and was hoping to get at least $15 for. Obviously had no idea what 1.5g means.


Quote:
If you also go to coin auctions locally, especially probate auctions you can take a peak into how much local people hold, some of it is pretty significant.

True.
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