I Don't Win Auctions Anymore. How Should I Adjust My Bidding?

I have been winning to many bids lately haha

I think many auctions are now going for full retail these days, a combination of more collector involvement, the shut down of shows, stimulus money, who knows?

I follow a number of antiques and collectibles categories and many of them are seeing steadily increasing prices and demand since the start of the pandemic. I am being outbid almost all the time for quality items and I am shocked by how much prices seem to be going up. Housing prices are also crazy right now and I think we are in a hyperinflationary period that is being hidden from the general public so not to cause panic. All of the monopoly money that is being printed and distributed by the government and the current policies of the FED are are cause I believe.

Tonight I participated in a Heritage auction and actually did win two coins. Contrary to what I mentioned before, I slightly changed my approach.
First of all, I made a list of all coins I was interested in and looked up past auction and Greysheet/NumisMedia prices for each coin. I also included a few coins I did not want to bid on ("dummy coins") but which were of similar quality AND were of an earlier lot number (very important!). I wrote the price of each coin down on a spreadsheet. Secondly, a couple of days before the auction I placed "place holder bids" well below Greysheet, knowing all too well I probably wouldn't win at these prices.
Just before the auction itself, I looked over the Proxy Bid tab sheet on Heritage but didn't really see the use of it. Then, when the "live" auction started, I followed every coin on my list, starting with the "dummy coins". I wrote down the sale prices of each coin next to the Greysheet price. That way I got a real-time indication of the "true price" of each coin.
Finally, when the coins came up for auction I was interested in, I closely followed the bidding and decided on the spot whether the price indicated was relatively good/bad compared to the "dummy coins".
To make a long story short, I bought two coins in the manner described above that I got for a lower priced than the "dummy coins", but were of similar quality.

Out of curiosity, I ran through the bay's listings for circulated S half eagles 1855-1874 to see where pricing was relative to PCGS list. In most cases pricing is 50-100% higher than list - for details coins. Only two straight grade coins were priced at list.

There's a lot of optimism in pricing gouged, scratched and cleaned coins for double the price of a straight grade.

The details coins I saw are mostly in slabs. There are a few raw ones with obvious polishing. Raw circulated coins with natural appearance have disappeared.

The two relatively common coins in this run are the 1856-S and 1857-S. Not anymore.

Commemoratives still seem to be "bargains" compared to other coins.

The 1859 IHC is a sought after Type Set coin made in ONLY that one year, as it's the one with no shield. The PCGS Retail Price Guide is $550. While the prior sale at GC on January 10, 2021 went for only $373, compare the eye appeal of that coin with the one sold tonight. The one in January has MANY unattractive green spots all over the obverse, where tonight's coin was more attractive.

This example of price differentiation is exactly what I described to you in your other IHC thread - looking at Greysheet pricing commoditizes coins, ignoring differences in eye appeal. Coins with nice eye appeal sell for more than those with lesser eye appeal, and depending on the eye appeal, one may have to pay up for that.

While the high bidder got it for $561, the underbidder was willing to pay $550, and the third highest bidder was willing to pay $517, all pricing with the BF. That tells me this coin apparently had real nice eye appeal compared to others graded MS62 by PCGS.

As for the 1892 Barber Half that sold tonight for $545, it was NOT AU Details, but UNC Details, which makes all the difference in the world! It's a very attractive coin that was Detailed by NGC due to a slight bend in the coin. Apparently the buyer was willing to tolerate that bend which might not be too noticeable in order to get that very attractive coin at less than MS62 money. I'm not an excellent grader, especially from looking at GC photos, but the strike looks super sharp, and the fields and devices on both sides look problem free. If someone with good grading skills chimes in and tells me this coin would grade as an MS65 had it not been for that bend, the thinking of the high bidder and underbidder is understandable.