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 Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,254 |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
Well, thought I'd take a slow and lazy Saturday morning to look at where we stand-
Gold generated a ton of buzz on 9/18 after the Federal Reserve minutes were released and gold took the rocket ship up after it appeared to be sliding lower earlier that week.
Since that day, tho, gold has given up some of its gains. There was no strong follow through in the price action. So what can we expect going forward?
Well, as I have been saying, the best case scenario that can be said of gold and silver is that they are broken assets. Theres really no absolute direction. What are the key points in terms of price action?
These are the key points that I am keeping an eye on-
A. First, all those gaps it had tried fill up, it has given them all up. The 4/15 gap and the 6/20 gap.
B. As of right now, it still is below that 6/20 gap.
C. There is no strong volume, no indications of real buying coming in.
Clearly, gold and silver are in this downtrend and now continue to chop around with no direction. It also appears that the bounce we say on the release of FOMC minutes was attributed to a short squeeze.
I'd also point out that the long bond, 20 year note, also bounced that day and it has retained its gains from that same day and has follow through.
To my eyes then, the price action is further proof,telling me there isn't interest in gold and silver by institutional funds and clearly there isn't any sort of "insider buying". That would leave a footprint via price and then volume.
For that reason, putting any sort of money for investment or speculating in gold and silver is a waste of financial capital. There's no clear resolution. Furthermore, there's no reason why gold and silver continue at this exact same pattern for an extended time period.
Its going to be interesting to see if we get a bounce and reclaim the Fed day bounce or start to continue lower and below that days price point.
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Valued Member
Canada
281 Posts |
Kitco gold on sale. Every major retailers brought their premiums down.
Its certainly looks like they're all expecting lower prices like we haven't seen yet.
I hope I'm wrong...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@miggs
I wonder tho, should there be another dump in price, will the dealers mark things up, to trap the public by saying "prices wont be this cheap ever again?"
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
They can try but its worked less and less each time. Fewer of them seem to be doing it each time too
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Valued Member
Canada
281 Posts |
@yup,basebal -I think ebay is pretty much the best way to gauge PM sentiment and excitement or lack thereof. -Its been pretty flat for a while now. If you're an active buyer, there's deals to be had. -Anything close to the mess of 2008 and we'll see another move upward, I have no doubt about that. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
A lot of gold on ebay sells for less than spot. And there is roughly 45 percent more Mercs on ebay right now than has been averaging. There are usually between 10k and 14k mercs on ebay at any one time. For the last few weeks it has been averaging 20k. That tells me that people are trying to sell before the prices dump again. My refiner is only taking large orders and he is buying 5 back of spot. That is the first time he has ever bought at less than spot. Also he is only melting junk. The rest he is selling to silvertown. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
"That tells me that people are trying to sell before the prices dump again. My refiner is only taking large orders and he is buying 5 back of spot. That is the first time he has ever bought at less than spot. Also he is only melting junk. The rest he is selling to silvertown." I put about 4500 worth of gold up on ebay on 24 hour auction at safe bid in price for me anyhow and already drew 1800 worth of bids, so I hope you are right.... My debt is trying to catch up with my net, so as MUCH as I HATE to sell any gold time to dump and start fresh again, and keep my rare bigger items half oz up to 1 oz pieces.... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1590 Posts |
Hey Hawk, most of the below spot buying I have seen has been when you deduct the fees from the final price. Though, I have seen some auctions end with the actual price below spot. I have also seen a few modern Star Note, $100 bills selling for 99 dollars to $105 dollars...OUCH.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Just a couple things for my friends-
1- expect a lot of nonsense and volatile trading in the markets,,, the noise will make things whipsaw. Chill out, don't worry, this is all a circus and drama.
2- if you are watching CNBC, heaven forbid,but if you are, the minute they talk about a "CNBC special Washington in Crisis, thats when you buy stocks
3- look at the futures market indicating how the markets are going to gap lower, stock market that is. However gold and silver can BARELY get up, in fact silver is actually down at the moment. If this carries into the opening session, thats gives you a clear indication how PATHETIC gold and silver really are. Should they react as they are, its more clear proof of how funds are not and do not want PMs. Remember, gold and silver remain locked in serious downtrends.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
WELL-
if you were hoping for doom and gloom because of the silly nonsense and useless dribble in DC, you have got to be disappointed.
gold and silver are basically flat, doing nada really. Again, the price action leds me to believe that the metals are just so darn weak and
1- they remain stuck in a downtrend
2- this sort of price action continues, that they will be gearing up for another leg down in time.
The "talking points" of those who demand higher PM prices are faded. A ton of talk about debt and yet PMs are going "yawwwwwnn".
I think again, you continue to stay patient, if you have to buy, buy high end numismatic that has dropped and stay away from bullion.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:-I think ebay is pretty much the best way to gauge PM sentiment and excitement or lack thereof. -Its been pretty flat for a while now. If you're an active buyer, there's deals to be had. I definitely agree. During the runs ups everything thats not insanely priced on ebay was selling, now things even go under spot sometimes which would have been unheard of 2 years ago. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
you know I was thinking here, everyone is mentioning how prices are dropping on eBay- So the price of silver and gold knocks down some numismatic values on coins and you can find deals on ebay. However, I would be willing to place a bet, that once gold and silver steady out, even if they go lower and finally just bounce around, that those coins of gold and silver will make up their respective drops in price and recover in time. They will be the first coins to recover. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2120 Posts |
Let it drop this week!
Coin show this weekend. :)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
well......
thats a pretty ugly drop.
Biggest takeaway is- there is no fund buying nor institutional support for gold. It is a broken asset.
Be careful going forward if you do buy, nibble only. Be patient. This gap is ugly, the price action is ugly.
again please be careful, I know I repeat myself but please be careful.
more later
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Pillar of the Community
United States
919 Posts |
Quote:
Let it drop this week!
Coin show this weekend. :) Same here. Big 75 table show (big for my area). I usually try to pick up some rolls of VF/XF WLH's, Peace and Morgans and maybe some SLQ's this year. Last year silver was $32 an oz so I only bought a small amount. |
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,254 |
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Posted 09/28/2013 1:00 pm
