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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3789 Posts |
have no idea if a bottom is in place. I never really even bother to look for bottoms or tops, rather I look at price to see if we have a clear direction and then CONFIRMATION that a new trend is coming up.
All I do know is downtrend remains intact, we have had plenty of retracements such as these week.
Gold and silver must first PROVE, by price, that they are ready to finally stop probing their lows. They remain guilty until proven otherwise.
Charts and look at exactly whats happening via price in a little bit.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
Lets rewind a bit before we talk about where we are at now. LEts first look at silver. WE can can see that it was trading in a range since late April until the end of May when it broke lower... briefly and then snapped back, starting on 6/2. First chart, with two simple lines show the range or box that silver was trading between. We can see the attempt was made to push it lower and failed.  Taking a looking at the green arrow at the far right of the chart shows us where we are, which is the upper end of the range. The question then becomes: will silver break this range on the upper end with authority? We will await the price action to tell us. Notice also all the congestion it is coming into. I expect a grind of sorts here. Lets take a longer view of price. Zoom out a year.  Notice the red arrows. Silver must now climb and march into these areas. Price has memory... how does silver act into these areas? For it to climb higher in price it will have to contend with these areas. So as a trader here are my thoughts on the price action- 1- is this going to be a continued range, with silver being at the upper range currently? 2- How far can this retracement higher go? 3- how do I position myself? Well, I would sell short on a break of 18.61 if and when that happens. for my time frame and confirmation I would be a buyer only above 20.40ish for a trade. I have to say its been interesting watching silver break lower each time and then getting a bounce. I keep an open mind for a move in either direction and I find it hard to believe that silver really has found a true bottom with this constant probing lower. Why? Because the more you probe an area of price, sooner or later it gives in. So silver really has to put in some work and stop this sort of price action if it really is going to get going higher. next post will look at gold.... |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
now we look at gold- again, we had a range develop, from late March to the end of May. In between we had points were price managed to pop its head briefly above that range. gold broke decisively lower on 5/28 and even had follow through to the lower end. Yet despite the break lower, it also has managed once again avoided plowing into its yearly lows. First chart illustrates exactly what has happened in the past few weeks. The green arrow shows the break out of the range lower for gold last week.  Again lets look out on a longer time frame. Again we can see this range bound trade in gold. looking at the second aqua line, we can see plenty of support for gold on the lower end before it comes into its yearly lows. Again price has memory, and in this case, its supporting and holding gold higher, allowing it bounce higher.  Again, you have to ask yourself- is this just more range bound trade? How much a retracement are we getting here? Keep an open mind....remembering that gold and silver are still in major downtrends. Once again, for my time frame, my plan would be 1- sell short if and when gold breaks 1240 2- see how and if it can get up above 1331 to be a buyer for a trade. Outside of that, I do nothing and just patiently wait. So the element of time is so key and important here. To be frank, I am finding this sort of price action boring. It really has become old hat with the constant ranges, false break downs and false retracements. But thats how markets out. Many times we go no where and no where fast. Eventually, this back and forth is going to end and we will see something solid. What I see is all the previous price memory is holding up gold and silver each and every single time. For prices to really hold up if you are wanting higher prices, we must see this constant probing lower end and just see a long time period of a constant sideways action that finally breaks higher. Finally, my apologies for lacking in updating this thread every week, its been a rather busy few weeks and months. If you have further questions feel free to ask them and I;ll do my best to adress them. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
gold with one heck of a rip higher today. Nice move gotta say that.
Does it change the overall downtrend it is stuck in? Nope. Until gold can break out of this downtrend, moves like this are hard to get excited about.
However, if gold can build on days like this, and not give up gains, then these days will add up and are constructive towards getting out of its downtrend.
As always, time and patience are key.
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Valued Member
United States
264 Posts |
Quote:
sell short if and when gold breaks 1240  |
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Valued Member
Australia
491 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
589 Posts |
Gold today just broke 1316 and silver is back over 20.50. I swear all the old economic indicators that used to predict the rising and falling of precious metals is so off these days.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@John Hutch
no surprise there. Correlations come and go and no one indicator is consistent. We are seeing that here.
Its clear that with gold and silver, we have this huge crazy up and down battle here. enough to tease the short sellers, enough to tease those wanting higher prices.
we have seen these type moves before, only to see them run into a brick wall and start moving lower and erase the entire move up.
over the weekend I'll get into what we need to see to validate this move we saw on Thursday.
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2019 Posts |
Will add to Piffins post from the same site. Not saying prices are going up but its an interesting read none the less. Its from May . Quote:
Eric Sprott: Gold Shortage Coming, Data Shows
Eric Sprott, Founder and Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, said recently that he expects a "significant re-rating of the gold price" due to high physical demand from China and India, coupled with a gold supply shortfall. The effect, which he calls the "Chinese Gold Vortex," is rapidly taking physical gold from West to East. When the West runs out of gold, the price should go much higher, he believes. I recently spoke with him on the phone about his near-term views. Quote:
Another piece to the puzzle is Germany's current effort to repatriate its gold supposedly held by the U.S. So far, it has only received 5 tonnes back from the U.S. Treasury7. They've asked for 300 tonnes back over 7 years. That would imply around 3.6 tonnes per month.
It's worth noting that the U.S. is supposedly the largest holder of physical gold in the world. Its books should contain 1,500 tonnes held for Germany8 and 8,100 metric tonnes of its own9. So why have they only delivered 5 tonnes over the last year? Quote:
The whole reason for Western central banks, particularly the U.S. to supply gold to Asia is to suppress the price of physical gold. Most people realize that low interest rates and printing money will eventually be very bad for the U.S. dollar. One thing that would tip people off to imminent danger to the U.S. dollar would be a much higher gold price. Keeping gold's price low is just part of the financial policy.
All this money printing is designed to help the U.S. address its massive obligations, which include its current debts and off-balance sheet obligations of around 80 trillion dollars. Their annual revenues are only around 2.8 trillion dollars and their expenditures are 3.5 trillion13. Everyone knows there's no way they can afford to keep going and cover their obligations. This leaves money printing to cover the gap.
Ultimately, we will find out the extent of manipulation in the gold market when someone finally fails - - " most probably the U.S. running out of gold to supply the market. And I don't think we are far off here. Quote:
What do you see happening in the broad stock market? Are we in a bubble phase? Will problems in the general stock market cause people to rush into the dollar?
Well, there's going to be a point where countries will have to assess each of the currencies on their own merits. As you know, I live in Canada, and I can assure you that when I look at the data that the U.S. supplies, the dollar will lose a lot of value. I am sure that countries like China and Russia would look at the same data and come to the same conclusion.
China and Russia look like they could already be turning their backs on the dollar. Brazil and India have complained about the printing of money and the disastrous effects on currencies. They could also be turning their back on the dollar. http://sprottglobal.com/thoughts/ar...-data-shows/I have no idea if this could effect the spot prices but its a still a good read. Then I found this: Quote:
Sprott Physical Bullion Trusts provide a secure, convenient, exchange-traded alternative for investors who want to hold physical bullion. http://sprottphysicalbullion.comSo ummm I guess they have a vested interest but still doesn't make the info wrong I suppose. Edited by Northerncoins
06/21/2014 08:06 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
yea no one listens to Eric Sprott because he is a fraud and has constantly played on the fears of others to make profits on gold and silver.
If memory serves me right, he was booted by his own from some fund he managed because of this last year. So Eric Sprott has no credibility and is nothing but a shill for his gold and silver interests.
What I do find funny is every time gold and silver rise, such as the price action we say last week, there is a tendency for everyone to come out of the wood work saying or giving a reason "why".
Even many fellow traders are talking up the price action in silver and gold on Thursday. Sure, it was a big move up, but we've seen this many many many times so for me, gold and silver continue to be guilty until they prove other wise.
IF this is a real move of substance, it will confirm it by price.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2019 Posts |
Ya could be , I just thought it was interesting but I guess alot of those type of write ups have a hidden adjenda behind them ....  |
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
Do take note that this was said BEFORE last week's runup.
Rick Rule and Eric Sprout are probably the two most knowledgeable free market investors in the PM market in the world. Your criticism of them may have more validity when you have made as mush as they have in that market sector. Their info and predictions are based on extensive research in the field.
Meanwhile your shorts at this level indicate your own vested intrest"
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts |
@Piffin
No Eric Sprott is a bona fide fraud, along with Rick, for starters. He is a major failure, why dont you have the guts to post how his funds have imploded and how he was kicked out. Of course you won't, you clearly have a bias.
Furthermore, I dont listen to what anyone says anyways, its irrelevant to me as a trader, I only care about price action.
Anytime a narrative has to be attributed to why an asset should go higher or could be going higher, or go goes lower or why it went lower, its often wrong and incorrect.
Furthermore, if I wanted to, I could FLOOD this thread with link after link of how much of a FRAUD and FAILURE Sprott is and the other person you mention. Sprott, especially is a huge failure and actually has been selling out silver in fact.
But again, as a professional trader, none of that matters, I dont care what anyone says. I simply trade price, thats whats important to me, it tells me whether to buy, sell or do nothing with an asset.
Feel free to believe what you want too, i'll continue to listen to price action as my guide.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3843 Posts |
 Have to agree with yup7676 on this one. |
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Replies: 5,649 / Views: 461,658 |
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Posted 06/14/2014 7:03 pm
