First, I applaud your efforts to make estimates on an esoteric subject like variety coins submissions. I also appreciated that you spelled out your thinking behind the estimates. At various points, I found myself at odds with some of the assumptions, but the framework itself is a great start. Will this be a paper at some point? It reads like a research submission.
Quote: 2. Few numismatic hobbyists would submit a common date circulated Lincoln cent for grading unless it was also being submitted for variety attribution.
Based on the sheer avalanche of common date sub-MS coins in PCGS slabs, I find this assertion hard to swallow. If we are to accept the premise that numismatic n00bs are specifically bombing variety attributions, I think there needs to be a comparison against equally common date/mintmark coins that have no major varieties.
Quote: This suggests that at least 61.6% of all presumptive 1917-P doubled die cents got the variety attribution from PCGS. If a few intermediate grade 1917-P Lincoln cents were submitted for grading only, the proportion of presumptively attributed doubled dies passing muster at PCGS could be higher.
I believe the second sentence to be a workable premise, but the first is not. The number of circulated common date grading-only submissions for other years must be considered. Those numbers are far above zero, even for high mintage year and mintmark pairings with no viable variety attributions. I think it would be more reasonable to develop a typical distribution based on a cluster of year/mm pairings with comparable mintages, then subtract that distribution from your variety year/mm under analysis. That could yield a better approximation of the collectors submitting for variety attributions beyond just the noise.
I do happen to think that there is probably a large Red Book effect for varieties with separate entries. When people see those, they get really excited that the ordinary coin they just found in pop-pop's change jar is a rare numismatic jewel.
I also happen to think that PCGS and NGC know the precise numbers for rejected variety attributions, and there is a snowball's chance in Hades that they will ever release those numbers.
It was an eBay pick, spotted while I was hunting bicentennial proof varieties. It looked unusual, so I picked it up.
I've been trying to research proof strike-throughs today. I've realized that the typical wispy little squiggles are actually considered struck through lint (not thread). So maybe this is properly a thread. I do like HGK's theory about a horse hair brush bristle. Marve and makecents could also be right with wire or rim burr, respectively.
Here's where I was stuck: what was the object? It's too large to be a thread. String seems to show texture. My understanding is that wire stays straight and resists bending. A wood splinter would also be straight.
I don't think it can be disputed that Ike would have been on a major coin. That generation revered his military leadership in World War II, and he was popular as a Cold War president as well.
If our present age politics had not become so bitterly partisan, I believe that Ronald Reagan would also have been almost guaranteed a major coin.
Quote: The "revering" of Kennedy is, frankly, primarily because of his assassination.
I don't know if that covers his entire appeal. John F. Kennedy is the only President I know who is ever mentioned by women who are otherwise uninterested in politics. He was handsome, rich, charismatic, and led a glamorous life with Jackie Kennedy. I think the only subsequent President to capture the public imagination—particularly that of the ladies—has been Barack Obama, and the infatuation was nowhere near as intense.
For me personally, as a space-interested child of the 1980s, his "from the Earth to the moon" speech might have been the single greatest piece of oratory from the 20th century. I would esteem it over even MLK's I Have a Dream speech and Churchill's We Will Never Surrender.
Edit: just wanted to add JFK's speech at Rice about the space program and the HQ in Houston. The man was simply a brilliant orator, and his vision for the future was truly magnificent, full of hope, purpose, and optimism.
The coin face isn't that far off center, so there would still be lots of structure to the round shape from the collar. That coin is pancaked. Great find! =)
There is so much metal in the doubling, I almost wonder if the die didn't have extreme deterioration, and then the machine doubling had more material to smash. Definitely extreme, and an interesting find. =)
That looks like a Ridge Ring. It is a common feature of worn dies, due to prolonged mechanical stress around the rim of the coin. You can follow the highlighted link to read the official CCF article on a ridge ring.
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