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Why You Don't Need Gold (Not My Article)

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Pillar of the Community
United States
5833 Posts
 Posted 06/04/2012  6:17 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add macmercury to your friends list


Trust your own instinct! Diversify! Read and take advises to heart and analyze it yourself a few times a year.

Look at most of these analysts position, they are still analyzing today.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2130 Posts
 Posted 06/04/2012  9:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add chris12018 to your friends list
Interesting read. Thank You
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 06/04/2012  9:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
If that is how the author wishes to read the situation, fine by me. The fact that he has not participated in the +600% rise in gold over the past 11 years could lead one to doubt his expertise in the matter.


Sure. If you completely ignore the passing of a full generation when gold absolutely sieved value for TWENTY years, as the article plainly stated. Many investors from that era probably will never live long enough to recoup their losses. If one bought near the top of the previous bull run, gold still hasn't paid off for them, nor has it come even close to breaking even. So I totally agree with the article. Gold, and PMs in general, are a huge gamble, if one expects to reap some future reward from buying into this asset class. I know this isn't the popular view around here, but a dose of reality is good for investors to digest on occasion.


Why-You-Don't-Need-Gold-Not-My-Article
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts
 Posted 06/04/2012  10:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list
Now is the time to buy Pt instead! The bullion price of Pt is normally much higher than Au.
Pillar of the Community
United States
561 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2012  11:16 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Merc Man to your friends list
Thanks for sharing lukkyseven. That was a very interesting read. Nice chart traevin, you always want to be buying when everyone else is selling and selling when everyone else is buying. I seem to be doing a lot of buying right now though.
Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 06/05/2012  11:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list

Quote:
Sure. If you completely ignore the passing of a full generation when gold absolutely sieved value for TWENTY years, as the article plainly stated.

Man, what an amazing time to be buying slowly over time, though. Imagine being able to but gold at cheap prices for 20 years while you build your hoard. This is a negative? Nope, sorry, it's not.
Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2012  02:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list

Quote:
Imagine being able to but gold at cheap prices for 20 years while you build your hoard.


The problem for both sides of this argument is that hindsight is 20/20. During those years where gold languished in investment purgatory, there were indisputably better investment opportunities elsewhere. And, the scale of fiscal excesses and gross negligence that threatens today's fragile fiat economy were not yet in play, let alone imagined, in the most fevered central banker's head. Yes, the real money faithful who correctly foresaw the inevitable problems that would emerge in the wake of the Nixon Shock would be the ones to faithfully build their gold stacks during these years. However, given the opportunity to do it all over again, with the information available to me at the time, I'd be dishonest to suggest that I'd be stacking gold instead of playing the successful equities of the past twenty years.

If I fault myself on anything, it would be not second-guessing my incorrect evaluation of the importance of gold and silver in the wake of the dot com bust and our emerging post-9/11 world. The rules were changing; the last semblances of rational fiscal and monetary policy were vanishing in plain sight. Unfortunately, the normalcy bias is very real and very powerful. I'm just glad I got on board when I did.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2012  02:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list

Quote:
If I fault myself on anything, it would be not second-guessing my incorrect evaluation of the importance of gold and silver in the wake of the dot com bust and our emerging post-9/11 world.


I made the same mistake, CW. And I knew the winds of change were blowing. There were plenty of signs but I foolishly ignored them. Everyone saw how the Iraqi war was draining our coffers and raising the debt ceiling year after year. Coupled with Afghanistan, the emergence of China and India's industrial growth, and the erosion of our manufacturing base, and so many other factors, everything pointed to a major rise in PMs.

I did buy 14K rounds of ammo before the price tripled, though. Not a total loss.
Valued Member
Ireland
131 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2012  06:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Spikey Norman to your friends list
Hmmmm.... for someone who states
Quote:
Picking a side is pointless.
they sure seem to manage just that themselves with this article that imo shows no balance whatsoever.

Norm
Pillar of the Community
Japan
666 Posts
 Posted 06/06/2012  06:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add bekiz to your friends list
For one who compares value of gold I'd suggest taking not the time frame to support his view on metal (no matter bearish or bullish) but get a time frame of let's say last 100 years. In order to compare to pick other liquid assets like: USD, loaf of bread, gas(kerosene), etc. and put them all together in one chart.

I do agree that picking last 11 years as a matter of prediction what will be during the next 10years - is not wise. As well I agree that picking 80-s as trend of a poor performance of gold - wrong as well.

Take a bigger time period ... last 50 years, 100 years, 150 years ...
Pillar of the Community
United States
5862 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2012  09:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list

Quote:
Take a bigger time period ... last 50 years, 100 years, 150 years ...

I'm not sure that would work either, since prior to the 1970s we were on the gold standard and the price of gold was fixed.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1454 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2012  4:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add traevin to your friends list
After Nixon closed the gold window, we essentially entered a brave new world.

Pillar of the Community
United States
880 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2012  5:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lukkyseven to your friends list
I'm glad a few people enjoyed the read! I personally wont be investing in gold, but I do own some. I think there's a big difference and honestly, I see better things to invest in. That being said, I'm 27 so what do I know! Now if I were offered gold at well below spot, I'd invest in that ;).

The value I see of owning gold as an "investment" is simply that gold has been seen as a source of wealth since ancient times. So even though prices may go up or down, it will still be worth something. I think the same can be said for ammunition and food though! And they are much cheaper.
Pillar of the Community
United States
5854 Posts
 Posted 06/08/2012  7:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add D0ubl3Eagle to your friends list
I think you can still look at gold over periods of 50 years or more. Gold was fixed against the USD up until 1971 but bekiz hinted at was looking at gold relative to other commodities and items. As far as I know gold was never fixed to something like a gallon of milk or gasoline.

Pillar of the Community
United States
808 Posts
 Posted 06/09/2012  12:38 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add coinwatch to your friends list

Quote:
Gold was fixed against the USD up until 1971 but bekiz hinted at was looking at gold relative to other commodities and items.


I know it may seem like a simple mater of semantics, but it's a very important distinction to understand. Gold wasn't fixed against the US dollar. The dollar was fixed against a specific weight of gold. Gold is the constant. It's the dollar's value that changes and thus it's buying power for the purchase of other goods, services, and commodities.

Once this fact sinks in and is understood, it changes one's whole perspective on what gold represents, both before and after the Nixon Shock of 1971.
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