Coin Community Family of Web Sites Join Thousands of Coin, Bullion, & Money Collectors
Vancouvers #1 Coin and Paper Money Dealer Royal Canadian Mint products, Canadian, Polish, American, and world coins and banknotes. Specializing in Modern Numismatics Join Thousands of Coin, Bullion, & Money Collectors Coin, Banknote and Medal Collectors's Online Mall Royal Estate Auctions - $1 Coin Auctions300,000 items to help build your collection!








Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?


This page may contain links that result in small commissions to keep this free site up and running.

Welcome Guest! Registering and/or logging in will remove the anchor (bottom) ads. It's Free!

Coin Profits Hinged On Graders' Opinions

To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
First Page Previous Page  Showing last 15 replies.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 38 / Views: 3,916Next Topic Page 3 of 3
Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  12:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hunter20ga to your friends list

I don't know if it is fair to say that "none" of this exists for collectors, but I cannot fault your main thrust, which is that this exists for the benefit of the TPG's and certain dealers/auction houses.

If there were only three or four MS grades, then there would be far less ambiguity in the grading, and much less chance that a coin could be resubmitted for a higher grade.
Valued Member
United States
206 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  12:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add asciibaron to your friends list
what is the point of an MS69 coin? I believe it exists to keep the population numbers of MS70 coins down thus lining the pockets of auction houses and dealers, and does nothing for the collector until they wish to sell. can you tell me the difference in an MS69 and MS70 coin? there has to be something that is quantifiable, right?

-steve
Valued Member
United States
206 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  12:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add asciibaron to your friends list
let me put it another way - what is the point to population reports? the numbers can't be correct given the number of coins that are cracked and resubmitted - so why are they published?

-steve
Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  2:45 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hunter20ga to your friends list
Well...if an MS70 is a perfect coin without blemish, then I can see the reason for MS69, because almost-but-not-quite perfect needs a designation. I, for one, probably can't see the blemish that keeps the MS69 from being MS70...but then I have almost no uncirculated coins in my collection, and have NEVER spent 10 minutes total trying to determine the differences between one mint state and another. (Obviously I don't collect Morgans or modern coinage!)

You are dead on as far as publishing populations of slabbed coins, since those numbers MUST be incorrect...though they would be high, thus tending to push market value down on that population of coins, wouldn't they?
Pillar of the Community
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  5:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list
quote: "what are the pluses? if there is no consistency to the grades and they use "secret" criteria to establish a coin grade (what is an MS66?) how is that adding anything to the industry - seems they have much to gain in the creation of wealth in creating demand for pushing a coin to the next higher grade. seems very self-servicing by the TPG's."

I wish they would tell us what the secret method is by which we are to learn grading at all by looking at a lot of slabs. Even if you could look at slabs in which the grade is covered up and even if you got the same grade that doesn't mean you graded it the same way they did. Maybe the weight you gave to strike was more or less than the grader and the weight you gave to luster was more or less than the grader and they both washed to get the same grade. How would know looking at a net grade? If no one can know how they arrived at the grade on the slab then there can be no feedback. If there is no feedback there can be no learning process. So how do collectors learn to "buy the coin and not the slab?"


Moderator
Learn More...
United States
23522 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  6:22 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
This is a great discussion.

quote:
I don't think it's possible for me to work any harder trying to learn about my hobby.


You are not the exception to the rule (it's not *that* uncommon), Trooper, but you are someone who sees the big picture more easily than most. You are different. Your attitude, your participation here, proves that. You are obviously going to be one of the ones who passes this wonderful hobby down to the next generation. But, in my opinion, you are not even in the majority. What percentage of coin collectors are even aware that Internet coin-related forums exist? The math was done in some CU thread a long time ago; I don't remember the actual percentage conclusion but is was below 20%.

The day will come when you are perfectly willing to spend over $100 on a raw coin, and that day will be soon in your case. Of course, you will have the common sense to do it in a circumstance where you can see the coin in person, but your ebay skills will follow shortly.

My contention is, unfortunately, that too large a percentage of our fellow collectors lack your resolve. Like the stereotypical American, they want it served to them on a platter, and are unwilling to do the legwork before reaping the benefits. And the accessibility, the implied infallibility (yes, that's twice for this phrase) of the TPG's facilitate this quintessential American "feed me" laziness which pervades a substantial percentage of our fellows in the hobby.

I'm preaching to the choir here. I know that. By being here, you all prove yourselves to be willing enough to learn that my comments cannot apply to you. But there are, literally, thousands of folks out there, spending millions of dollars on coins, who are going to learn the hard way that there is no easy way.

The TPG system is here to stay. I know that. I wholeheartedly endorse their role in authenticating coins. However, by their unregulated existence, they justify and encourage the proliferation of the alphabet slabbers whose presence is the absolute bane to our hobby. It is as much for this reason, as to encourage collectors to develop their own skills, that I speak against TPG's. I can only envision as a usable solution that government regulation and standards become a part of the TPG qualification.
Valued Member
United States
206 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  11:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add asciibaron to your friends list
i see the TPG industry as a well heeled snake oil sales racket. they have figured out how to extract a profit from the numismatic community without carrying an inventory. coin owners pay to have coins evaluated, graded, and certified. if you doubt this is big business, PCGS is a publicly traded stock. look at the costs involved to have a coin graded.

the brillant part of the business model is the published population numbers - a completely unprovable and most likely absurdly incorrect census of graded coins. this is little more than a license to print money for the business - it encourages the resubmitting of coins to "game" the grading system by seeking to grade a coin at a higher grade. the TPG's have to do nothing more than throttle the numbers to encourage resubmitting since the limited numbers of high grade coins remains low thus adding perceived value to the coin.

the ramifications for the collector are simple - high grade coins no longer are within grasp of many budgets. the perceived value (PCGS price guide) of an 1929S Walking Liberty half in MS66 is $5000.00, but the same coin in MS67 is 10x that value at $50,000.00. without looking at the slab, I really wonder how many collectors could perceive the difference in the grade - and if so, is that one grade step worth $45,000.00? going down a step from MS66 to MS65 only results in a decreased value of $1,850.00. I'm sure there are many more 1929S Walkers graded as MS65 compared to MS66 and even fewer graded as MS67. heaven knows what an MS68 would be "worth."

granted the PCGS values are optimistic at best, but they make the case. throttling the numbers of high grade coins has a direct effect on perceived value. one of the many clients of the TPG's are auction houses who make rather nice profits from highly valued coins.

it seems obvious that the TPG's exist only to inflate the sales figures of the high end sellers and to inflate the overall prices to keep investors buying. I have strange sense of dejavu - it reminds me of the dot com bubble - I wonder when the "investment" coin bubble will burst - I hope it doesn't devalue my minimal collection - what am I talking about, I own no coins of real "value" - I'm safe.

-steve
Valued Member
United States
459 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  11:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Benji to your friends list
NEWS FLASH!!!!
I have just completed an Alpha Version 1.0 of my new software entitled "Coinamatron-Gradeputteron." I have tested the script on my personal collection with outstanding results. This breakthrough in numismatic gradeology will render Third Party Grading Co. obsolete.

This program scans the image of a coin and enters it onto the mainframe's motherboard's databases' hard-drive. There, it will be given a overall grade based on a set of objective criterion.

WHAT'S THE CATCH?

The catch is that this software was developed for classic coins minted prior to 1837 (I apologize to all you modern hoarders. In the future I hope to have the capabilities to accommodate you). You will also NEVER receive your coin back in a BODY BAG! I feel it would be in the best interest of the numismatic community if these coins were taken out of the collecting circle. In it's place you will receive a b/w, dot matrix photocopy of your (not really yours anymore) coin.

If interested just PM me to schedule an appointment for you coins. My book is open as of now so, I should be able to pencil you in at your convenience.


Valued Member
United States
206 Posts
 Posted 07/06/2007  11:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add asciibaron to your friends list
you've one up'd Compuu-grade - nice ;)

if you can have the next version put the coin images into an on-line image database, that would be helpful - so I could show my friends my coins wherever I go...

-steve
Pillar of the Community
United States
1173 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  08:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hunter20ga to your friends list
AsciiBaron, you've summed it all up pretty well. I would be concerned about those $50,000 coins holding value, too, since I perceive the market in those rarefied strata as very thinly traded. It may be difficult to actually extract that kind of money from a coin if you "need to sell it."

I don't have to worry, of course, since my entire collection fits nicely in a Shaq-sized shoe box.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  08:53 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list
What if TPGs chipped in to build a Master of the Universe database of slabbed coin images. Each time a TPG got a raw coin to slab they would search the database for the same coin in the last slab. If an image is found of the coin slabbed in the database the grade will be recorded to the new slab. Now wouldn't that greatly reduce the inconsistency issue?

In fact why bother with graders at all? Why can't the secretary just scan the coin and then click somethingy to search the Master of the Universe database?

That will be $30 ( or whatever it is now) please. Thank you. Have a nice day.
Valued Member
United States
206 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  09:55 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add asciibaron to your friends list
i wonder what the percentage of the TPG's business is resubs? how many high grade/high value coins have yet to be slabbed?

-steve
Moderator
Learn More...
United States
23522 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  10:45 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SsuperDdave to your friends list
quote:
I wonder what the percentage of the TPG's business is resubs? how many high grade/high value coins have yet to be slabbed?


This is all guesswork on my part.

With some issues and some grade points, I'm thinking that as much as half the population is vapor, the product of resumbissions. This idea has been borne out in the case of a few real rarities, where known/assumed pops are less than 100. I'd guess that there are two hot spots at about AU55-58 and MS64-65, from people looking for an upgrade to MS or Gem. You can also figure on a lot of resubs at Condition Census and conditional rarity points for almost everything. In any event, there is a substantial amount of resubmitting going on, and as a result the TPG population reports are to be considered as pretty optimistic estimates.

Regarding the second point, I'm thinking that there are not a whole lot of earlier, valuable coins remaining to be slabbed. That does not mean that they don't exist, but that most of the remaining unslabbed rarities are in the hands of people who have no plans to ever slab the coin. These folks are also not selling, either, so just kiss those ones goodbye.

This will only change as longer-held collections come up for liquidation. In the future, I think that we're in for some real surprises on occasion. That's something to look forward to.
Valued Member
United States
344 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  10:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mishap-coins to your friends list
I have enjoyed the responses to this post. I hope everyone knows the only reason I post is to share material I found to help educate one on the dynamics of the coin grading business that seems to be public information.


Here again the grading game which does entail a large amount of telemarketing ventures by some if not all the slabbing companies big and small and it is so far regulated by some of those that by their association with the regulatory part of coin marketing makes me even more of a skeptic about this whole coin and bullion grading game etc .

Industry Council for Tangible Assets I think it is a self regulatory group over telemarketing of coins. As you can read below they haven't been to self regulatory in the opinion of the the FTC. Granted this was dated in 1991, though it seems not much has changed by what I've read and check out who some of the board members are.

http://www.ictaonline.org/board.html

Like at least 2 of the members that I have read about have been charged and had to pay fines to the FTC.
I believe Mike Fuljenz which owns or works for Universal Coin & Bullion, Ltd., Beaumont, TX case is still pending I believe. http://coins.vanosteen.com/




FTC'S CUTLER WARNS COIN INDUSTRY:
SERIOUS PROBLEMS REMAIN UNADDRESSED


Neither a government-affiliated "self-regulatory organi-
zation" nor an industry-run watchdog group is the perfect
solution to combatting fraud in the rare coin industry, said
Barry J. Cutler, Director of the Federal Trade Commission's
Bureau of Consumer Protection, in remarks before the Industry
Council for Tangible Assets in Washington, D.C. today. Rather,
Cutler challenged the industry leaders who have been considering
alternatives for self-regulation to go beyond the rhetoric and
commit themselves to true consumer protection for rare coin
investors and collectors alike.
Cutler cited the annual Salomon Brothers Report, a com-
parison of investment options used by telemarketers and others to
make lavish investment claims about rare coins, as an example of
the industry's lost opportunities to take decisive action to
protect unwary investors.

"Is there anyone in this room who does not agree that the
Report has been a major selling point for virtually every
telemarketer?" Cutler asked. "If the leaders in numismatics
today are unwilling or unable to prevent unwarranted consumer
reliance on such rosy investment claims, what hope can rare coin
dealers realistically have for the idea that the industry alone
can do the job of self-regulation without a self-regulatory
organization (SRO) or other government involvement?"

The FTC has challenged one rare coin dealer who used the
Report to market coins that had little in common with the truly
scarce and rare coins used to base the Salomon Brothers Report.
Cutler noted that previous Salomon Brothers surveys had been used
in fraudulent schemes to market investment-grade diamonds, as
well.

Investment fraud has not abated since it was first called to
the attention of industry leaders last year, Cutler said, and he
challenged the audience to educate the public and take behind-
the-scenes action to prevent the pitfalls awaiting consumers who
rely on the Salomon Brothers Report and other indices to project
appreciation for rare coins.

Cutler doubted that industry proposals for a formal SRO
would be the panacea claimed by some of its supporters. At the
same time, he said, industry self-regulation by itself may be
insufficient to solve the fraud problem. "The industry has
offered much talk, but little action, about self-regulation in
the five years since the FTC became very active in the coin
industry," he said.

"Industry leaders agree on what they do not want --
government regulation," Cutler continued. "What I see lacking is
any genuine commitment to what industry leaders say they do want
-- true consumer protection for investors and hobbyists alike.

"The next few months . . . will give your industry an
opportunity to convince the government and the consuming public
that you really mean business this time," Cutler said.

# # #

MEDIA CONTACT: Bonnie Jansen, Office of Public Affairs
202-326-2161

(icta)

To read more on Icta here is a link to other readings.

http://search.ftc.gov/query.html?co...t=iso-8859-1
Pillar of the Community
United States
1247 Posts
 Posted 07/07/2007  7:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add longnine009 to your friends list
If the heat gets turned up on them they have their escape route. Not only an escape route but a route that will yet "earn" them more money. They simply get another rotted out institution to put forth "Universal grading standards" that they all agree to adhere to. Making sure those standards are especially conservative.

That makes their own standards obsolete. Which means: A)The new slabs will be more popular than the former slabs. B) There is now a potential to re-slab everything that's already been slabbed. C) They admit nothing about their former grading practices. They are simply adhering to new standards that just happen to be more conservative. What's more, since so many people seem to believe in "reform" and a single standard they can even claim that "well actually" we're being very public spirited here by giving collectors what they've been demanding for so long.

Why they might even hire William Shanter to peek over his speckles and say: "It's coming through now collectors."

And if the heat doesn't get turned up they simply keep Renting Grades out to coin collectors. Just as they've been doing for the last 20 years. Tell me how it is they can lose? They don't lose. And they never have. We lose.
Edited by longnine009
07/07/2007 7:38 pm
Page 3 of 3   Previous TopicReplies: 38 / Views: 3,916Next Topic Page 3 of 3
First Page Previous Page  Showing last 15 replies.
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.


    




Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Coin Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Family- all rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Coin Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Contact Us  |  Advertise Here  |  Privacy Policy / Terms of Use

Coin Community Forum © 2005 - 2026 Coin Community Forums
It took 0.39 seconds to rattle this change. Forums