| Author |
 Replies: 23 / Views: 2,743 |
Page 2 of 2
|
|
|
|
Moderator
 United States
189340 Posts |
Quote:
As with many very large questions, I think the answer is "it depends," and "there is no simple answer."  Quote:
I have found this site to be interesting in providing historical US coin prices from the 1950's, although not specifically linked to times of recessions. Just looking back at coins I purchased in the 1980's, it seems to be in the right ballpark.
Very interesting site! I just looked at the 1909-S VDB. Its price was rising until 2008 and started coming down in 2010. After the drop it is still sitting around 2003 levels. |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
924 Posts |
Zurie:
Very interesting website. Thanks for posting.
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Anecdote on an ancient coin:
I bought my first ancient coin in 1965 - a silver denarius for $4.
Market value in 2020: $100.
That works out to an average compounded interest rate of 6% over 55 years
- right through all of the recessions and economic booms over that period.
As noted before - I am not a coin investor.
|
|
New Member
 United Kingdom
16 Posts |
Hi,
Thanks for all the replies and information.
I'm planning on buying an Athenian Empire Tetradrachm. Not to make money but because I like them. The ones I am interested are going for about £1000.
However I believe there will be a recession next year and didn't want to buy one and find it dropped in value by 30%. I know it could still drop 30% or more but at least it will be an informed decision.
Thanks again
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
It is always very helpful to the potential future value of any fine art object (coins included), if
you buy well in the first place.
Research your market well.
|
|
Pillar of the Community
 United States
7958 Posts |
Quote:
However I believe there will be a recession next year Whaddya mean NEXT YEAR? You are already in recession: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52986863Quote:
I just looked at the 1909-S VDB. Its price was rising until 2008 and started coming down in 2010. Just looking at that one coin in relation to the original question ... The deepest recessions since 1950 as measured by GDP and unemployment were 1957-58, 1973-75, 1980-82, 2007-09 and 2020 Here is what the chart says about 1909-S VDB prices in relation to those recessions: 1955-60 Increased in all grades 1970-75 Increased in all grades 1980-85 Increased in all grades 2008-10 Decreased in low, increased in high grades. 2018-20 No change in low, decrease in high Other periods which saw decreases were 1965-70 and 2010-2016. These were both periods in which PM prices were in the doldrums (declining or stagnant). My observation from just this one example is that prices can drop in especially severe recessions (since 2007-9 and 2020 were the worst, at least by the numbers), but may be unaffected by most. The only 10 year periods that saw declining prices for the 1909S VDB were 1965-75, and the period since 2005. But it would be hasty to draw conclusions without looking at a lot more examples  Edited by tdziemia
10/11/2020 11:37 am
|
|
Moderator
United States
189340 Posts |
You took my example to the next level. Thank you.  Quote:
But it would be hasty to draw conclusions without looking at a lot more examples  So thankful I am not in this for the profit.  |
|
Pillar of the Community
1110 Posts |
It depends on how severe the recession is. Prices could be "real cheap", like finding peoples collections in circulation.  |
|
Moderator
United States
189340 Posts |
Quote:
Prices could be "real cheap", like finding peoples collections in circulation. Yup, it happens. More often when heirs or thieves are ignorant to what they have. However, desperate times could lead a collector to cut and run.  |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
6514 Posts |
Great info. Thanks everyone.
Check out my counterstamped Lincoln Cent collection: http://goccf.com/t/303507 |
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
1316 Posts |
The stuff I follow, which is not too focused, seems to be holding or maybe a tad strong this year. I haven't felt like there are too many great deals out there at the moment. Best deal I found was simply a mis-identified piece on ebay I grabbed at maybe 20% it's actual value. But like others have said, that's a result of ignorance moreso than market conditions in the buyer's favor, and those who have collected long enough all have a few stories of getting lucky. Edited by Collects82
10/12/2020 11:11 am
|
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Quote:
I'm planning on buying an Athenian Empire Tetradrachm. Not to make money but because I like them. The ones I am interested are going for about £1000.
However I believe there will be a recession next year and didn't want to buy one and find it dropped in value by 30%. I know it could still drop 30% or more but at least it will be an informed decision.
Recessions don't last forever. If the value went down 30% during the recession that only matters if you SELL during the recession. Once the recession ends the value will more than likely start going back up again. |
|
Bedrock of the Community
United States
18696 Posts |
i can answer from only personal experience of collecting for over 50 years. over that period of time most if not all coins in my collection have increased in value. some during times of recession. however, based on the percentage of returns if those funds were invested in a conservative mutual fund over that same period I believe they would have increased significantly more.
there are a couple factors though that alter that opinion. one would be higher grade key coins which are always in demand and increase at a higher rate than non-keys. I'm a collector first and an investor second so I purchased coins to fill holes that have never increased in value.
would I have changed what I did? probably not as I purchased the best coin I could for the price I could afford at the time.
regarding recession prices. from a personal point of view I tend to pull back in purchases during those periods. does this affect the overall value of the market I'm not sure as this doesn't mean that others do the same. however this would be a prudent time to purchase those higher end key coins if they drop in value. the old adage still stands. buy low, sell high. at some point in your life you may want or need to sell them
Edited by panzaldi
10/13/2020 09:51 am
|
|
Pillar of the Community
United States
7958 Posts |
Quote:
Recessions don't last forever. If the value went down 30% during the recession that only matters if you SELL during the recession. Yep. Same wisdom as managing your any kind of investment portfolio. Youngsters sometimes will panic and sell (I did that once, a LONG time ago). With age comes wisdom ... or at least slower decision making that we try to pass of as wisdom  |
|
Moderator
United States
189340 Posts |
Quote:
or at least slower decision making that we try to pass of as wisdom Accurate and honest. |
|
Page 2 of 2
|
Replies: 23 / Views: 2,743 |
Page 2 of 2
|
First Page
Posted 10/09/2020 2:58 pm
