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 Replies: 47 / Views: 5,991 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
509 Posts |
I would have to disagree with Zeewolld's recommendation that now is the time to sell. With Ben Bernanke's announced plan to print more money, $600 billion over the next six months, I don't see this leading to anything other than an inflationary spiral by flooding the market with all those extra dollars and thus devaluing the currency. I would expect inflation hedges like gold and silver to continue to do well. I have to agree with Him1953.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
jim1953
the housing market will take longeralot . like you mentioned to many houses for sale as of today
its estimated that the foreclosure madness has not even hit yet.
More houses will have to be forclosed ,If someone does not protest a foreclosure its a automatic 12-18 months before the house can be taken back with the back log of caes in the court rooms . Atleast in places like florida,newyork and cali.2-3 years if a person protest the foreclosure
so the forclosure peak might be in 2-3 years with the 2008-2010 cases finally being settled with judgement sales.then 2-3 years more to level off the accumulated houses.
The time the market will really take off is 2015-16 ,7 years after the first 2007 forclosures hit, those people will be 7years with cleaned up credit looking to rebuy , then the 2008-2009 clean credit people rebuying cuasing a serge in house prices once more ,as peoples old foreclosures fall off their credit record they to will seek new homes to buy.Plus todays teens and early 20's people will be looking to buy there first home in around 7-10 years ( age 24-28) seems to be the first time home buyer market
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Devaluing the $U.S. will devalue all of America's assets, relative to other countries. That renders U.S. business and assets more liable to to foreign takeovers. That is what happened in Australia some years ago when the AUD was weak, and so now a large proportion of Australian business is non Australian owned, and therefore profits flow out of Australia.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
If anyone believes or accepts the theory that money is being printed then you should NOT be invested in anything. This is one of the most "misunderstood" concepts (QE) of all times and I wonder which talking head on TV started this illiterate concept. For anyone interested listen to the 60 Min interview on what was said.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2424 Posts |
ceylon,
i watched that interview last sunday, and I heard Berneke say that they "were not printing more money" not sure if that's true or not. b/c he and t. geitner both lied under oath about the fed not going to monetize our debt, and that is what we are doing..
anyway, I am having a hard time buying silver and gold right now., I want to buy, but I feel like the prices will come back down, not sure when , but I feel like they will. I am having a very hard time paying $30/ oz for something I paid $4 for 7 years ago..
im not expert, but data does show some interesting things. to each his own I guess.. as for me, I'm not going to buy or sell anything. I may continue to buy high grade silver coins for my collection that are not affect be the price of silver however.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2600 Posts |
Cylon62 - Ok, may be that the presses are not exactly running, but the Fed is buying Govt debt so they can put money into the marketplace. Not sure how you buy your own debt without "printing money".
coppertop5150 - I agree with your analysis of the housing market. I think most would agree that the run-up in gold and silver has been driven by economic fears. Your statement on housing sure does not inspire a belief that this is turning around or anything else for that matter. I see no reason that that fear and or monetary policy changes by other govts won't continue to drive metals. $30 is a ceiling. Once thru, $35 won't be far away.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
He explains HOW they are doing it. The reason he went on TV was to put an end to the "printing money" story that some in the media are promoting for their own political agenda's.
At the end of the day he is giving a subtle warning to anyone "betting" against the USA. They (Fed) have more than enough "resources" to takedown anyone period.
Since this is a topic on silver -- "Periodic table element" Ag is moving on fundamentals, and here again some in the media will have you believing otherwise and be hedged as it will be a bumpy ride. Dyodd.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2600 Posts |
Cylon62
Ok, silver like all things, moves on fundamentals "supply and demand". The driving factors on the demand side are NOT normal and that was the analysis. I am not sure anyone is particularly afraid of the Fed. Betting against the power of the American economic engine is a suckers bet, though. It is underestimated.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
The governtment doesn't need to print the money. They just push a button that electronically adds 100 gigabucks to the $ supply. 90% of the money in our economy is of the electronic sort with no corresponding paper.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3692 Posts |
They buy tresaury bonds from banks.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4989 Posts |
I made a big bet against silver yesterday. Picked up $1500 worth of July 2011 $29 puts (4 contracts so I'm controlling about 400 ounces) and also bought $10,000 worth of ZSL which is a silver "ultrashort" fund that moves at 2x in the opposite direction.
Hoping Silver's luck is about to run out...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4989 Posts |
Yes simply put the Federal Reserve has absolute power to control the United States money supply.
During hard times like now, they are in a good position since money has zero velocity and there is no inflationary pressure. Hence, the Federal Reserve can monetize U.S. debt with little or no consequence. I won't go so far as to say U.S. Federal Debt is meaningless but it is far less consequential than people think.
Would you be worried about your mortgage if you were authorized to print $100 bills? Probably not...
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Valued Member
United States
364 Posts |
Over a year ago, Ben himself stated "We are basically printing money" on a 60 minutes interview. Jon Stewart covered it on the Daily Show the other night. So that's where the "illiterate" concept comes from.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
There is a lot of "decay" in ultra long / short etf's during sideways moves and at expiration. They are good for 1 to 3 day "directional" trades and not good for longer time horizons as they do not "track" the underlying very well.
I too think silver will move one way or another BUT I am playing the front month expiration on both sides and let the market forces decide which way it wants to resolve itself.
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Valued Member
United States
374 Posts |
$27.77 by years end. Mortimer sell, sell, sell.
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Replies: 47 / Views: 5,991 |
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Posted 12/11/2010 8:24 pm
