Are Trend Price$ For Canadian Coins Too High?

At my recent coin show almost gave away my old USA silver not to many collecting them.Silver from RCM and .9999 rounds, old canadian paper money and pocket watches was a good seller.I was glad to sell my old USA collection, low grades just melt value.Have over 2000 old silver waiting for silver to hit $75.00 a troy ounce,The melting pot takes all kinds of silver ugly even your good old USA coins.

Low prices in Trends benefit nobody. Dealers see the value of their inventories drop, collectors see the value of their collections drop. In an odd quirk of human nature, people in fact generally do tend to buy high and sell low (hence the quote instructing you to do the opposite, as instinctual as it seems, it's not). Nobody wanted to touch silver when it was under $10, as it approached $50 everyone and their dog wanted some.

@1cent - Low trend price benefit the collector. Not people with heavy investments in massive collections, but people who are actively collecting. Low Trend prices do not benefit sellers or current holders, I agree.

I believe the internet has reached a stage where the broader audience dictates prices now, not the brick and mortar dealers. I feel that access to information and a wide variety of coins and conditions is bringing coins DOWN from what was an artificially generated price point. It is my belief that the 70's and 80's with access to low price marketing paper materials raised coin prices because there was a perception that you only had access to the say five examples of a coin within 100 miles of you.

This is no longer true. I can now buy a small beads that was sitting in a case in Germany or a 1921 specimen set in Australia through the wonders of global communication. Choice and global competition is bringing coin prices down. Also bringing coin prices down is what I alluded to previously, the concept of hobbies is fading and new collectors are not joining this gentleman's hobby the way they once were.

Prices were inflated by an artificial assumption that there would be more collectors down the road than ever before and everything would be in huge demand... guess what? This pyramid scheme fell down. The worst is yet to come - the uptake by new collectors will not keep pace with the deaths of the boomers and when these folks kick the can for the last time and their kids ditch their collections... see where I'm going?

When I consider Trend pricing, I take into account that the majority of the publishers advertising revenue comes from the people they most rely on and who have the most communication access to them personally ... the dealers. As a result they are in a position where downgrading the value of a dealers inventory could very well result (in extreme cases) in insolvency depending on how he is financed and thus eliminate one of their ad revenue suppliers. I also keep in mind who these folks all talk to... especially in Canada. It's a clique, one I have avoided for my entire coin collecting life and it borders on being collusive in nature. (though I don't believe there is any intention for it to be this way and thus not a crime) . Not through any criminal intent at all, just that there are so few willing to put themselves out there into this small market that they just end up with each other. Sort of like people who like line dancing hang out with each other.

In summary, I believe the collection of data of coin sales has become very complex and essentially beyond the ability of a small organization to reflect accurately. As a result I consider all things Trends to be about dealer pricing models, whether their pricing is lower or higher than Trends doesn't matter- it's not what I myself will pay or have ever paid.

The above is merely a few paragraphs from a tired guy and is offered freely, like all free opinions it should be valued accordingly.

As a follow up to this, I am going to scan and post the first newspaper ad I ever kept from what was once a major dealer in Canada, Simpsons @ Feb 14th, 1978. They were advertising their buying prices, amazing low by contrast. In my mind, this was the beginning of the run up on coin prices and we will see a steady drop in many prices except the truly rare and beautiful over the next decade.

I was hoping someone would chime in with a counterpoint. Thanks Dan. I'll let it stand but I stick to my points as stated, except for truly rare and beautiful, most prices are dropping. You brought up the price of keys rising to counter that argument, but as I said, "with the exception of the truly rare".... Truly rare; meaning there are none to buy most of the time. What we see is a drop in the price of common coins passed off as scarce and they will continue to drop as far as I can see.

As to the boomer comments, I'll just shrug. I don't really care to debate it. The argument that gen x has knowledge of true wealth stymies me however. True wealth is having something people pay you for, a necessity such as energy, food or housing for example. Coin collections however, they are not wealth imo. I think coins are luxury items and as such interest is waning as people concentrate their purchasing power in more critical life areas - Food, shelter, education and future savings.

Obviously, you feel differently and have thousands to spend, so I understand your point of view is coming from that position. I personally and sincerely hope your collection meets all your expectations down the road. I have none for mine, they are merely small works of art I've borrowed for a while and have a fluctuating value in real terms I would never depend on. FWIW I do have my great, great grandfather's collection of George II and III coins from Hibernia and Britain. Their value has certainly gone down in respect to what it was once in inflation adjusted dollars. I don't really expect my own collection will fare any better down the road with the exceptions as noted of the truly rare pieces.

I'm a boomer, but don't plan on kicking that bucket for a long time yet

Have Trends prices gone down since the correction in silver price?

Interesting comparison dan-in-CL,thanks for taking the time to prepare this.
As a large cent expert south-of-the border what's your explanation for this?
Is there a price difference?And if there is,are Mr.Findley's estimates realistic?