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Pillar of the Community
United States
629 Posts |
To me Trends is like retail - it is a way to give value to your collection. I think that values should remain the same, the market will find pricing levels on it's own.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1923 Posts |
tamarin, I think what you say is probably pretty close for variety coins graded VG - EF a person can pick them up for cheap. But for mint state variety coins you are not going to get to many that cheap unless the seller has no knowlegde of the grade or what they might have.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
Quote:
To me Trends is like retail According to CCN, Trends (supposedly) reflects the transaction price between knowledgeable buyers and sellers, with equal motivation. I feel retail is for "suckers", especially in this market. After all, what do I do when I want to price a coin for purchase? I look at E-Bay recent sales. Therefore, in my opinion, Trends should do nothing more than should reflect the (recent) average market price. In theory, this is the total volume of sales of a given coin date/type at a given grade divided by the number of sales. This should be almost automatable using E-Bay sales, which seed databases, and in turn are fed into some kind of a weighted average. It wouldn't be rocket science to create this kind of dynamic, accurate "Trends" for Canadian coins. I don't think this means Trends should go down or up by any fixed proportion. They are likely completely out of whack and trick the market into behaving the way it does. If Trends/Charlton/Price guides had never existed, I don't believe the market would have found those values on its own. Why people feel the need to rig up the Trends prices is beyond me. If we want inflated prices, let's be honest and not call them "Trends". A retailer can put whatever price tag they want on a coin (and watch it collect dust for 5 years). A collector can believe whatever pipe dreams they want about their coins (and have their surviving family liquidate it for next to nothing). But what matters to most of us is recent realized transaction prices. Edited by bibd
07/08/2011 5:52 pm
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
Agreed...Trends simply does not reflect "reality". However, I disagree about the use of ebay to set prices. There are too many interfering factors on ebay, mainly: 1. Sellers with low feedback vs high feedback. 2. Sellers with crappy pictures (98%) vs excellent pictures of coins (2%). 3. Sellers from US or some God-forsaken country, vs sellers in Canada. 4. Coin raw, vs US TPG, vs ICCS. These factors affect the prices a bit too much. However, big auctions like Torex, Geoffrey Bell, or other CNC auctions SHOULD be used to adjust trends. In the recent Torex, many "high end" coins simply didn't sell for even the starting bid of 50% off trends. Some of these coins haven't been "touched" over and over and over. You see them being relisted in auction after auction with the same starting bid and "estimated value" in the hopes someone will bite. That's where I think serious progress can be made. However...adjusting Trends prices down makes no one happy. So we'll essentially have two parallel price structures. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
576 Posts |
Papeldog, you're right. Mint state variety coins are tough to come by. If using ebay, the two things that have brought me the best buys on high grade material are: 1) buying from an American seller 2) buying Buy It Now. On the latter, it pays to keep going back to Buy It Now for new listings. It is amazing what sometimes shows up. Trends are useful as a guide but heartbreaking when it comes time to sell. Most buyers simply want large discounts. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1923 Posts |
I love buy it now I got a 1881 single serif N for $ 8.95 buy it now its one of the rarest Canadian large cent only 6 or 7 known (loving every minute of it)
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
576 Posts |
Buy It Now is a great place to watch. One of my best scores was a few years ago when I got an 1893 Round Top 3 ten cents in VG for less than ten dollars. I paid more for shipping than I did for the coin. I didn't want to take any chances.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
902 Posts |
Keep those polls coming Glenn.
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Valued Member
Canada
372 Posts |
With the planitary CRASH looming around,everything is going to take a dive.North America and Europe are in worst shape than we know.Your retirement plan will shrink,,your house value will melt,your job will be your most important possession.The least of your problem is going to be your coin collection.Trend is going to decrease a lot.Hope you don't have to sell it.Sorry for bursting your bubble.  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!
Are you stocked up on guns and ammo, and a 50 year supply of cans of beans? :)...
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
627 Posts |
Another factor in determining price , besides finding a determined buyer and a determined seller, is a "reasonable period of time". ebay only offers a seven day window(typically), which is a relatively short period of time. Most of us here on the forum are quite familiar with the Internet and ebay procedures, but I'm sure that there is a huge number of collectors who don't have the time to scour ebay looking for deals. Alot of collectors probably don't even know how to turn on a computer. (No offence intended, but there are alot of older collectors who prefer to do things "the old fashioned way") So in summary... a price is determined between a determined buyer and a determined seller given a reasonable period of time. And my opinion is that 7 days is not a reasonable period of time. Keep trends going the way it is. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
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reasonable period of time I agree. On the low end, E-Bay's 7 days is indeed too short. But on the high end, if retail sales at full trends require 2 years to find a sucker, this is no more "reasonable" in my opinion. So while you're bang-on with the inclusion of the phrase "reasonable period of time", I nonetheless feel that trends is overpriced. How is it possible that such a discrete and volitile market can be perfectly captured on nearly static newsprint, tinkered with every couple weeks in someone's office? I'm afraid the cart is pulling the horse, instead of the other way around. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2301 Posts |
With trends...with out trends...or Charletons...or any other speculative price guide...they are just that...a guide....if you think I will sell my 47CR 50 cents for anything less than 150% of Trends.ummmm nope...but my 48 in MS 65 I would take 100% but my 53 LG date I would only expect 90% or so in MS 65. Discussing in generallities(sp?) is like talking apples and oranges. Common stuff yup Trends too high......Better dates...about right.....Truely Rare coins and Varieties...way too low..... IMO. :-)
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
838 Posts |
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Truely Rare coins and Varieties...way too low..... IMO. This is probably true. I do enjoy reading recent sales data, such as for the 1936-dot cent. That kind of sales reporting can be done by trends too, even for much less rare coins than the 36-dot. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
650 Posts |
I think Trends tends to be sort of a paradox as does Charlton.When you set a price and your publication is accepted as reliable most of us would be looking for paying something less than the accepted 'value' as published.Therfore trends becomes more of the high water mark and the next thought would be how to keep it climbing for all our sakes.
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Replies: 20 / Views: 3,304 |
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First Page
Posted 07/08/2011 3:17 pm
