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Outlook For Silver Spot Price?

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Valued Member
United States
55 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  05:44 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add Reedbeard08 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Howdy, shiny lovers!

I've stumbled across a couple of good articles from varying dates that seemed to shine very favorably upon precious metal in the future. I was reading an article from May 2020 which listed gold at 400 per ounce - geez, that's more than a four fold increase...

With gold dragging silver up and what looks like less silver retrieval from the Earth, it seems silver is currently climbing. I'd love to hear any views, articles, or ideas on how this market will trend and how that might impact junk/old coin/commemorative silver. Thanks for reading (and commenting!)
Bedrock of the Community
Australia
18155 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  06:04 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have slowly added to my junk silver stash over a period of about 30+ years.
Ups and downs in the spot silver price mean virtually nothing to me.
Have just quietly accumulated.

Most of the stash has been built up as unwanted coins in bulk lots from public auction, so in effect, I have paid nothing for them.
That is why I couldn't care less about the current spot price.
Bedrock of the Community
Learn More...
United States
14880 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  06:44 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add T-BOP to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I think you meant to say '' Gold At $4000 An Once .''
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4133 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  10:01 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fistfulladirt to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In a heavily manipulated metals market, spot price means little to me also.
When I listen to LED ZEPPELIN...so do my neighbors...
Roll hunting since '77
Dirt fishing since '72
Pillar of the Community
United States
1546 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  12:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As others have said the market is manipulated. Supply and demand have little effect on the price.

During the "Great Melt" of 10-11 it was proved that there was actually a glut of silver on the market. No one believed the fats because everyone wanted to get rich. Even when the bubble burst most people still did not believe it.

Watch the price on fridays. I call it the "friday bounce". 95 percent of the time the spot price bounces up on friday.

There is no fundemental reason for spot to be this high. Particularly if you look at the historic ratio between Gold and Platinum.
Valued Member
Korea, Republic Of
447 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  12:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lembafc to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Generally if you are reading articles about "prices going up" metals are probably getting ready to or are already on the way down. Always assume the writers have something to gain or lose. Hope you are ready to read this:

Chart analysis of both gold and silver differ. The silver chart shows the same wedge consolidation pattern that it has been flashing for years (June 2016-June 2018, 2011-2016). Silver is not going up currently. Maybe if you zoom your chart in to the month is may seem to be going up, but it is just heading up to test the resistance of the wedge pattern before it falls again to support. So, its hard to say that its going to explode. This is how silver has been traded for a very long time. In my opinion it will probably continue to consolidate for a year and drop through the floor back to its old ways.


Gold on the other hand is absolutely trending downward. It is on its third bound of lower highs and lower lows. This is happening all while the dollar continues to weaken. We are also meeting a deadly cross roads within the next two weeks. The 200D and 50D MACD are about to cross right as it test the upper resistance of the downward trend. A cross here will signal a major sell off. This happened in 2016 and 2018 and triggered a sell off dropping the price of gold quite a bit. The last time gold was this high and the two crossed at the same point we are at today, gold fell to $1,100/ounce over the course of three years.


This all being said, I have started to add little bits of silver and gold each time it bounds downward. But this is probably not the time to be buying a dump truck load of it.

Edited by Lembafc
01/26/2021 12:35 pm
Valued Member
United States
55 Posts
 Posted 01/26/2021  10:06 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Reedbeard08 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You all are wizards, thanks so much for this information. Perhaps I could've gotten a few of these conclusions by sifting through articles but...thanks for the quick update

Just wanted to say, the quiet accumulation is absolutely the game plan. Paying nothing for old aussie silver I stumble upon feels like a win

Thanks for the (seemingly obvious) points of market manipulation/friday bounce/writer bias. For further elucidation @lembafc: what drives wedge resistance on either end? It looks like a true rebound out of these floor drops may not happen for a while; any time frame estimate? Perhaps it is a good time to buy a bit of either/both during the low?

Also, MACD? 50D? 200D? Rookie here
Valued Member
Canada
159 Posts
 Posted 01/27/2021  12:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add silviosi to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Like investor, I can say: Demand and production have little impact on gold price. Silver more and less. The price is direct proportional with the economical stability.
4000$ an oz.? do you joke? Probably after march some where during the year will be 2000$, then after wait around ten years on a stabilization at 1500-1600$.
So around 2030 will start again the bullish.

Do not confound market price and spot price. two different things. Do not forgot never "that the spot price it is the security price for the producer", you can't touch this.

Silver will be same with the gold.
Valued Member
Korea, Republic Of
447 Posts
 Posted 01/27/2021  06:57 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Lembafc to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
what drives wedge resistance on either end? It looks like a true rebound out of these floor drops may not happen for a while; any time frame estimate? Perhaps it is a good time to buy a bit of either/both during the low?


Well first, algorithmic trading runs the markets. If there any patterns in the chart, rest assured it has to do with computers. But, folks buy low and sell high. Each bound that it makes, folks aren't willing to ride it up as high. So, you get the same bottom price but the top price will widdle down to a fine point and break out up or down. Looking at the chart, this could take six months or a year, but who knows.

The 200D/50D MACD are the 200-day and 50-day moving averages.


Quote:
As others have said the market is manipulated. Supply and demand have little effect on the price.


Also this. Old-timer, traditionalist thinking buyers/sellers of gold/silver will argue against this all day. The truth is, nothing traditional matters any more. The trading style on the markets change with the times. Silver and gold act just like stocks now. They are measured, analyzed, and played like anything else.
Edited by Lembafc
01/27/2021 06:59 am
Pillar of the Community
United States
1546 Posts
 Posted 01/28/2021  2:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not sure what is meant when it is said "Market price and spot price are not the same".

I'm a dealer. I have been for decades. Our buy/sell price uses spot for it's basis. When we sell to the refiner spot is also the basis. When I was actively working as an Engineer, our materials cost was always based on spot.

Perhaps I'm not quite understanding your point?
Pillar of the Community
United States
623 Posts
 Posted 01/28/2021  8:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add NumisEd to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Spot price is only a reference point. If the market is strong or on fire, any clever dealer in physical will immediately raise the "premium" to protect inventory.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1546 Posts
 Posted 01/29/2021  8:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
NumisEd, if you are a reputable dealer you will have a buying policy that your customers can rely on. Our customers know we buy at 12 times face, currently. They also know that we sell at 30 percent over spot. People also lock in prices over the phone that are good for that day.

You don't really change your price structure when the market is on the way up. You might if it is on the way down. Lower buy prices but your selling is still the same. For every day like today when it went up like a rocket, you have others where it goes down like a rock.

Most of us who survived the shenanigans of 10 years ago, know how to cost average. Though I do know a few dealers who have inventory they won't sell right now because of the price they bought it 10 years ago! Which I feel is completely ridiculas!
New Member
United States
48 Posts
 Posted 01/30/2021  12:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add glenmorenee to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Any market manipulation is small and inconsequential.  Besides, how is it if it's in my direction, I'm an astute investor and if it's against me, it's all rigged.

If you are trying to make the most of your investment dollar, you will always pay attention to the spot price.  It is your reference point every time you buy something and every time you sell something.  How else would you recognize value or what is grossly overvalued?  Whether you are buying from ebay, craigslist, the LCS or estate sales, etc. you are always calculating how much over or under spot you are paying.  Only then will you be able to recognize "Oh, that's a good buy!" or "That really has a lot of premium, but I still want it!"

And you'll also recognize when something is impossibly low.  Then it's either your lucky day or they are fake.
Valued Member
United States
55 Posts
 Posted 01/30/2021  4:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Reedbeard08 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Hi again,

Thanks for the lively discussion. Glad to see multiple takes on how the market tends. I didn't think I'd be able to see "good deal/poor deal" at a glance, but I'm starting to see it, based off spot and similar weights. Glad to be holding real assets, even if they are manipulated
New Member
United States
48 Posts
 Posted 02/04/2021  3:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add glenmorenee to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are websites that have all the pm values of pre-1964 US silver coins versus the current spot price. So for example, the silver content of a Morgan dollar is about $20. Anything in the wild at well over $20 is not such a good buy. Anything in the teens is worth a second look.

Looks like the 50/200 day moving averages on gold are resolving to the downside . It spent so much time here that hopefully a lot of energy has been dissipated and the downside will be limited. Bad sign: That was a pretty good cover story about the silver squeeze and bullion shortages so that might have be it for a while.
Pillar of the Community
United States
1546 Posts
 Posted 02/04/2021  5:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jmkendall to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Glennmorenee....I don't see how you can say that market manipultation is small and inconsequential.

The current rapid rise in spot is exactly that, market manipulation. It was shown many many years ago that large commercial banks like Chase and some individuals, such as Warren Buffet could manipulate the market at will.
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