What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

.... and I continue to say,,,, the futures market is the standard by which everything is measured by. Supply and demand push up or down, these futures contracts, simple.


Bottom line- gold and silver are beholden, forever, and always will be locked to what the futures markets decide.
It has been like this for a long time and isn't going to change.

Finally, the world gold council does one thing. Promote gold and therefore, what they say must and should be taken with a grain of salt. They are shills for the gold industry.

I do believe you gave your "estimate" of what gold prices should be, you said between 600-800. My response to that is, no one can give any sort of estimate to what any commodity should be, because that is the job of the market, not mine, not yours.

In any case, I do appreciate your opinion and contribution to this thread.

The problem that is often made in regards to financial markets is making things complex, that there has to be a reason for every single occurrence and every single factor needs to be examined before a decision is made.

However, markets dont do that, they work on price. In the commodity markets, all prices are set by supply and demand, its as simple as that.

I agree, no one, not even the best technician can give an exact price, no one can and never will, that is fools play. But, we we can with all certainty establish the direction of a trend AND when a trend ends and starts to reverse.

For now, gold and silver continue to be stuck in powerful downtrends which is proven by price. Going forward, price has not signaled any sort of change.

A good trader NEVER "anticipates" what the market wants to do, rather he waits and then reacts to what it does. Supply and demand are indeed the main components to commodities markets because they are reflected in the price action.

It is a grave danger to try to add in anything more than the simple tenant that commodities are based on supply and demand. I know because everyday I see and know many fellow traders who express their grief and frustration that, as an example, they "thought fundamentally X commodity would rise because of a report" and yet it turned on them. The recent action in the grains market is a perfect example of this. Why is corn falling? Because their is a ton of supply, contrary to every single report,analysis, perception and emotions that price couldn't fall. Price has been falling for a while now because there is a big supply of it. Simple, really. There is no need to over complicate commodity markets.


NOW you are talking my lingo. Yes, humans make the market, and their emotions. But to be a successful trader, one must control their emotions. Trading emotionally makes for a broke trader. When you trade on emotions, you ignore what the market is telling you, you begin to ignore price action.

If you anticipate and the market is going contrary to what you anticipated, you are wrong. The market is the final arbitrator of all commodities and choosing to ignore price action is wrong. That is why it is clear what is happening currently with gold and silver. Demand is down, prices have been going down. I say it again: Its simple really. A good trader never ever anticipates and he ignores what other traders do, their emotions, he ignores news, everything.

As we say, price pays,, and in commodity markets, supply and demand set the price and the direction it goes.


Finally, there is no such thing as "over valued" and "under valued". Just as there is no such thing as "oversold" "under bought". Those are descriptions used by humans based only on their opinion. Remember, opinions are always wrong, the markets are always right. Furthermore,those are not terms that have any bearing on what is decided by the market. A move or trend can take price in any direction that is not comprehended by humans.

In any case, I welcome to you this thread and I like having someone else on board who understands my world to a degree. While we are on opposite ends of thought, I think we both have an appreciation for how markets work because they are made up of humans.

Actually no you have been talking past me and making erroneous assumptions. eg: I never said the price of gold should be "X" Rather I made a conditional statement. ie: IMHO if we were in pre EFT market conditions then the price of gold would be US$600-800 oz. 2nd example You went off on a tangent about the Gold council.....All I said was read their statistics, I wasn't for a minute suggesting to accept their view

(BTW statistics never lie people just don't know how to read them).....

I used to be highly amused at the gold council reports reports While demand for gold in tonnage terms was dropping( which occurred most of the last 11 years) the gold council was reporting that demand ( they only cited the demand in US$terms) was increasing.

You, They, Them, Whoever, are never going to ween people off of Gold. People are drawn to it. People for a reason I can only guess about, need it-- Assuming they already have food in their bellies. And many will die for it. As long as there are people, there will be a demand for gold. And disregarding the mystical want, I see Gold every day in my work as a Master Electrician. It's on circuit boards, connectors, connections,and many other parts. Anyone saying this is not consumed, doesn't understand the magnitude of effort to extract this for recycling. Assuming it is offered to be recycled. Silver is the best conductor and is used even more extensively than Gold. Whether we call it currency, or money, it doesn't matter. It will always be in demand, as long as there are people. And what people want, you can trade for other things a person might want.

Welcome Fixguy!
Sorry, but you just entered into a realm governed by allot of opinions and great ego's. So open your ears and bend over, and get ready to learn something or have someone getting ready to show you just how big of a man they are. Mainly this thread. The rest of the coin community is really cool. What do you like? Bullion or numismatics. Gold is on the rise.

Thanks a lot Arcticsparky I collect both but I tend to stick to North American Eagles or Maples when it comes to silver. I also have a good collection of limited sets but it has to stand out. I'm convinced that silver's rise is inevitable. With everything from solar panels to x ray sheets & water purification systems being made with it. it's far more practical a consumable than gold. I like the security of a face value. Even if silver tanks short term and I'm wrong I have a tax free government backed savings plan for my kids or they can hang onto it until the inevitable exhaustion of world supply.

@meadowview

thank you for the comments.

While it is true that no one can exactly predict an asset's price right down to the penny, it is entirely possible and important to identify the overall trend of an asset. Recognizing a trend is very important and watching it gives us major clues as to where it is heading.

Trends are very powerful, in fact as a trend picks up momentum in the direction it is fixed in, it can extend and carry farther than anyone can comprehend. Trends tend to continue for extended periods of time and do not easily nor change overnight. Eventually, a trend does eventually run its course and reverses. That is a process in itself.

Why do we want to respect trends? Well, take silver as an example. There's god who knows how many people that loaded up on silver as it dropped below 30, 27, 26, 25 etc. As prices dropped, these individuals would have continued to buy lower until they eventually ran out of money. Now look at the position that they are in. They can only place "hope" in their minds that "eventually" prices rise.

It would have been wiser if those individuals would have held back from making large purchases, even if it meant watching silver drop and drop without them buying.

By watching trends, we can place ourselves in the unique to position to profit as gold and silver drop if we are selling short. Conversely, if we are in tune with the price action and are patient, we can spot easily when a current trend changes course and thereby profit from that as well.

We gain nothing by anticipating, or wasting time trying putting up theories as to why PMs are "grossly oversold" or saying they are too cheap. Massive profits can be made by just sitting tight and looking for the trend. Waiting for confirmation of the trend or its change.

I have heard it all, I hear it everyday at work from rival traders and fellow traders who lack the ability to read the tape and follow trends, those who try to anticipate, the desks are littered with those who suffer from depression, anxiety, and great frustration all because they refuse to pay attention to the trend.

At this point, no doubt about it, gold and silver continue in downtrends. The only thing I think that gold and silver have going for now is that sentiment is very poor for them. I have family members who are telling me that gold should be dumped. EVERY SINGLE time I get this sort of "advice" on any asset, the contrary happens for a period of time. The asset in question then proceeds to rise, people start to re-think how they felt about it, and they jump in and buy it... and then some time goes by and the asset then proceeds to go back again to where it was.

So I think theres a good chance we will some crazy volatile price action in the PMs... enough to get everyone excited and into thinking that a floor established and feeling confident.

However, by paying attention to price, and the trend, we can sit back and watch everyone else get trampled and get wrong footed. Eventually, gold and silver will show their hands as to what they want to do.